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  • #2,281
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:11pm Jan 18, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting NightMoves
Its acting kind of squirrely right now but I triggered anyway....we will see what happens...

--NM
yeah me too, if it's not in profit within the hour I will cancel out 50% of the position, cause as you mentioned, not too much momentum going on here.
  • #2,282
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:28pm Jan 18, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting Custos
yeah me too, if it's not in profit within the hour I will cancel out 50% of the position, cause as you mentioned, not too much momentum going on here.
Just not acting like it should be there must be something going we do not know about, this should have blasted out of there after that bpc but it didnt.

--NM
  • #2,283
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:36pm Jan 18, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting NightMoves
Just not acting like it should be there must be something going we do not know about, this should have blasted out of there after that bpc but it didnt.

--NM
haha, what was that spike to the upside? didn't take me out yet, but I guess it soon will. price is not behaving nicely today.
  • #2,284
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:38pm Jan 18, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting Custos
haha, what was that spike to the upside? didn't take me out yet, but I guess it soon will. price is not behaving nicely today.
okay, took me out. Now plan B. h1 as my trigger chart.
  • #2,285
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:39pm Jan 18, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting NightMoves
Here is the channel I am talking about, the top line is a longer term support now resistance and the lower line is a previous swing low.
Channel is not that clear, IMO, especially the upper line. I believe the triangle was much better setup with clear 123.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #2,286
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:41pm Jan 18, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting Custos
haha, what was that spike to the upside? didn't take me out yet, but I guess it soon will. price is not behaving nicely today.
Haha I seen that I am in yet too but something is going on here something not normal for sure that should have plummeted to the bottom but it wants to play games for some reason...

--NM
  • #2,287
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:44pm Jan 18, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Channel is not that clear, IMO, especially the upper line. I believe the triangle was much better setup with clear 123.
I agree but I am actually using is the RN at 90.50 rather than the channel itself. The channel was too close to the RN to use so I used the RN as my break line...

--NM
  • #2,288
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:46pm Jan 18, 2010 9:46pm
I still think the setup is valid and it still think it is going to go and I am still alive in here...

--NM
  • #2,289
  • Edited 10:03pm Jan 18, 2010 9:51pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting NightMoves
I agree but I am actually using is the RN at 90.50 rather than the channel itself. The channel was too close to the RN to use so I used the RN as my break line...

--NM
Since Sell line is at 90.62 and close to 90.50 RN, it is logical to move Sell trigger just below 90.50, I agree. The problem with this short is that we have major SR at 90.30. So it is safer not to sell against a major SR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #2,290
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:56pm Jan 18, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Since Sell line is at 90.62 and close to 90.50 RN, it is logical to move Sell trigger just below 90.50, I agree.
Yes I waited for the pull back to the RN 90.50 then when it cleared the start of the pullback is where I triggered my entry. It was the slow momentum that had me concerned but I took it anyway.

--NM
  • #2,291
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:59pm Jan 18, 2010 9:59pm
okay, now actually when analyzing the trade in hinsight a couple of remarks why this didn't work out.
main reason, the bpc didn't happen at 90.60 (daily resistance) but ten pips lower. So, it was kind of a risky bpc. I should have put my stop above the 90.60 level.
Another reason maybe is that this triggered in the second half of asian. really low liquidity. Would have been better in the first half of asian.

Overall, the PA on the m15 was just not right, when I look now at the hourly, the PA is much better there, broke out nicely, one bar retracement and continuation coming soon.

Greed is the biggest enemy.
  • #2,292
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:05pm Jan 18, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting Custos
okay, now actually when analyzing the trade in hinsight a couple of remarks why this didn't work out.
main reason, the bpc didn't happen at 90.60 (daily resistance) but ten pips lower. So, it was kind of a risky bpc. I should have put my stop above the 90.60 level.
Another reason maybe is that this triggered in the second half of asian. really low liquidity. Would have been better in the first half of asian.

Overall, the PA on the m15 was just not right, when I look now at the hourly, the PA is much better there, broke out nicely, one bar retracement...
It was not acting the way I thought it should have and I thought about not taking it but I am in it and I still think it will go if not then...well we know what happens then...Hahaha but the setup is still valid I just took more heat than I wanted too but we will see what it does here.

--NM
  • #2,293
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:05pm Jan 18, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting Custos
okay, now actually when analyzing the trade in hinsight a couple of remarks why this didn't work out.
main reason, the bpc didn't happen at 90.60 (daily resistance) but ten pips lower. So, it was kind of a risky bpc. I should have put my stop above the 90.60 level.
Another reason maybe is that this triggered in the second half of asian. really low liquidity. Would have been better in the first half of asian.

Overall, the PA on the m15 was just not right, when I look now at the hourly, the PA is much better there, broke out nicely, one bar...
Please see my chart above (I have attached later on after posting) re. major SR on USDJPY. That is the main reason sellers are reluctant, at the moment.
  • #2,294
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:06pm Jan 18, 2010 10:06pm
My first trade post lets see how it goes...

Price entering my Daily Buy Zone at .8756 Stop is at .8700 for 56pips of risk, Profit Target at .8900 for Reward of 144pips.

Also bullish divergence on MACD, CCI rising out of over sold level.

I will usually win 2-3 out of 5 trades with a about a 3:1 reward to risk ratio.

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y27...emandLevel.png
  • #2,295
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:11pm Jan 18, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Please see my chart above (I have attached later on after posting) re. major SR on USDJPY. That is the main reason sellers are reluctant, at the moment.
yeah, that might be, there is always an S/R level, only question is if it's an important one or not. and recently 90.30 was not that important, 90.60 was the main important S/R level the last couple of weeks. but just my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy d1 19.1.2010.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #2,296
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:19pm Jan 18, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Please see my chart above (I have attached later on after posting) re. major SR on USDJPY. That is the main reason sellers are reluctant, at the moment.
Hi Blackeagle, you are correct at the 90.50 level is where that support is. And that is where we are now, just below it I figured once we had the pullback to that level and then a bounce off that level past the pullback start it should have been good to go, does not happen very often that the BPC does not work especially on a support level like we are on but I still think the setup is valid and I still think it will get going here.

On the larger time frame like the daily we had a nice bounce off the down trend line so still has a chance to get going but like Custos had metioned the we are in the second half of the sesseion and volumes are getting low so we may have to wait for london guys to push this down or up which ever way it finally goes.

--NM
  • #2,297
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:20pm Jan 18, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting FXphilosophy
My first trade post lets see how it goes...

Price entering my Daily Buy Zone at .8756 Stop is at .8700 for 56pips of risk, Profit Target at .8900 for Reward of 144pips.

Also bullish divergence on MACD, CCI rising out of over sold level.

I will usually win 2-3 out of 5 trades with a about a 3:1 reward to risk ratio.
yeah, that might work out. even though it's kind of counter trend, your setup is quite valid I think, since you are buying off weekly support. Hope for you that it works out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp w1 18.1.2010.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #2,298
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:40pm Jan 18, 2010 10:40pm
Well I am going to let it run and see where I am in a few hours...

--NM
  • #2,299
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:27am Jan 19, 2010 1:27am
Am also short $jpy the 30 levels have proven a hurdle . The mix action has been stops triggered against bids in the 30-50 region.
Some option int lifted on the offer ard the 30 levels but danger of more stops below the 30 levels will pose a concern . With the below 40 stops out lets see how they work the next zone.

Watch the eurjpy for late NY action as eur for now will lock range. Option size expiring tonite NY . Topside I saw gd name offer so watching 1.4420/30 to cap for now. But keeping alert on eurjpy for late NY .

Just my read on the mkt.

Gbp thank you Kraft on cadbury . Shld keep mkt on a bid tone .
Plus the eur sell int earlier eurgbp is the driver.

NM ur eurgbp shld be nice -))

all the best guys cheers
  • #2,300
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:01am Jan 19, 2010 3:01am
Quoting Custos
yeah, that might be, there is always an S/R level, only question is if it's an important one or not. and recently 90.30 was not that important, 90.60 was the main important S/R level the last couple of weeks. but just my opinion.
It seems you are using highs/lows for determining SR levels whereas I use weekly and daily closes to find major SRs, and, IMO, 90.30 was a major one since Sept. 09. Anyway, everyone has different SRs. Just my two cents.
Thanks for sharing your opinion.
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