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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #2,061
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:33pm Jan 14, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting NightMoves
It will be intereting to see how this comes out at the end of say 10 trades or so, i do not know exactly what sample rate we need to give this a high or low mark but I would think about 10 trades would give an idea what do you think.

--NM
yeah, it's a shame, that price action with S/R levels can't be backtested automatically. And I have to say, I am way too lazy to do that manually. So I will just forward test it and see how it goes. Yeah, I agree, 10 trades would be good, but I also think, maybe some kind of filters should be put in place for those trades: like nice breakout, time of the day, positive R:R,... god, a lot to take into consideration.
  • #2,062
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:41pm Jan 14, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Custos
yeah, it's a shame, that price action with S/R levels can't be backtested automatically. And I have to say, I am way too lazy to do that manually. So I will just forward test it and see how it goes. Yeah, I agree, 10 trades would be good, but I also think, maybe some kind of filters should be put in place for those trades: like nice breakout, time of the day, positive R:R,... god, a lot to take into consideration.
LMAO I know what you mean a big undertaking, I can take a few trades as well, keep all the rules of entry the same namely the BPC and then we can compare notes and see how well it does.

But we only take those setups in a trending market and in the direction of the trend. Is that kind of what you had in mind?

--NM
  • #2,063
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:53pm Jan 14, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting NightMoves
LMAO I know what you mean a big undertaking, I can take a few trades as well, keep all the rules of entry the same namely the BPC and then we can compare notes and see how well it does.

But we only take those setups in a trending market and in the direction of the trend. Is that kind of what you had in mind?

--NM
hm, yeah, my plan was to take any pinbar that is setting up on the daily at an S/R level with enough room to the next minor daily S/R level with an R:R of 1:1 at least. Then noting different things like time of the day, bpc, momentum,...
And then I would put them into three categories (trending, counter-trend, range), and see how that goes. I bet that the trending category is gonna win, haha.
Yeah, could be good if you also take some trades.
Hopefully we find out that pinbars combined with this method is a 100% profitable method with no losers at all (just day-dreaming here)
  • #2,064
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:00pm Jan 14, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Custos
hm, yeah, my plan was to take any pinbar that is setting up on the daily at an S/R level with enough room to the next minor daily S/R level with an R:R of 1:1 at least. Then noting different things like time of the day, bpc, momentum,...
And then I would put them into three categories (trending, counter-trend, range), and see how that goes. I bet that the trending category is gonna win, haha.
Yeah, could be good if you also take some trades.
Hopefully we find out that pinbars combined with this method is a 100% profitable method with no losers at...
Well 100% winners...let me think about that for a minute...ok I thought about it... But I think our win to loss ratio would quite good.

But I will take some demo trades and give it a try and see what happens, if we each take 10 trades or so that will give us a sample rate of 20 or so and that really should be enough.

It will take us awhile to get the results for sure. And in the mean time I will keep trading the real account the normal way....NO LIVE trades until we get enough data to support it,

--NM
  • #2,065
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:08pm Jan 14, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Custos
hm, yeah, my plan was to take any pinbar that is setting up on the daily at an S/R level with enough room to the next minor daily S/R level with an R:R of 1:1 at least. Then noting different things like time of the day, bpc, momentum,...
And then I would put them into three categories (trending, counter-trend, range), and see how that goes. I bet that the trending category is gonna win, haha.
Yeah, could be good if you also take some trades.
Hopefully we find out that pinbars combined with this method is a 100% profitable method with no losers at...
The AUDCAD finshed the day with a pinbar so if the setup happens I will enter at the break of the pin bar, right off the resistance level in a countertrend the trend right now is down so at the break I will enter and see what we get.

--NM

--NM
  • #2,066
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:11pm Jan 14, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting NightMoves
Well 100% winners...let me think about that for a minute...ok I thought about it... But I think our win to loss ratio would quite good.

But I will take some demo trades and give it a try and see what happens, if we each take 10 trades or so that will give us a sample rate of 20 or so and that really should be enough.

It will take us awhile to get the results for sure. And in the mean time I will keep trading the real account the normal way....NO LIVE trades until we get enough data to support it,

--NM
haha, yeah, day-dreaming is over. Well, I think it would be already viable with 60% winners. I agree with the "no live trade policy". Even if we got some good results on demo, I would still trade that one probably only with 0.5% of my account later on, until I am really sure that this works long-term... (which might take a while)
  • #2,067
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:16pm Jan 14, 2010 2:16pm
inteesting seeing this move to combine j16 and the bpc system.

my query is this, that an ideal j16 pin bar is one at a swing high or a swing low with enough breathing room above or below it, and the nose is well clear of surround price.

in my opinion the audcad wldnt be an ideal j16 pin bar.

my tuppence

Quoting NightMoves
The AUDCAD finshed the day with a pinbar so if the setup happens I will enter at the break of the pin bar, right off the resistance level in a countertrend the trend right now is down so at the break I will enter and see what we get.

--NM

--NM
  • #2,068
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:16pm Jan 14, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Custos
haha, yeah, day-dreaming is over. Well, I think it would be already viable with 60% winners. I agree with the "no live trade policy". Even if we got some good results on demo, I would still trade that one probably only with 0.5% of my account later on, until I am really sure that this works long-term... (which might take a while)
Ok then I will start logging those trades and collecting data and screen shots and anything we can use to correlate the data.

--NM
  • #2,069
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:19pm Jan 14, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting coolshades
inteesting seeing this move to combine j16 and the bpc system.

my query is this, that an ideal j16 pin bar is one at a swing high or a swing low with enough breathing room above or below it, and the nose is well clear of surround price.

in my opinion the audcad wldnt be an ideal j16 pin bar.

my tuppence
Hi coolshades,
we really are not emulating the James16 method, this is a totally different type of test. About the only thing I think the 2 have in common is the pin bar. Although I have never read the James16 thread or tried the method I have seen others try it.

--NM
  • #2,070
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:21pm Jan 14, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting coolshades
inteesting seeing this move to combine j16 and the bpc system.

my query is this, that an ideal j16 pin bar is one at a swing high or a swing low with enough breathing room above or below it, and the nose is well clear of surround price.

in my opinion the audcad wldnt be an ideal j16 pin bar.

my tuppence
I am not sure what kind of pin the James16 group uses, I was just going off the trend and the fact there is a pin bar there. and it is only a test never try this at home.....

--NM
  • #2,071
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:24pm Jan 14, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting NightMoves
Ok then I will start logging those trades and collecting data and screen shots and anything we can use to correlate the data.

--NM
good, gonna do that as well.

nzd/jpy also setting up for a pinbar right off 68.50 RN and around last high.

For any newbies out there, please don't trade this, this is just an experiment.
  • #2,072
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:29pm Jan 14, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting Custos
good, gonna do that as well.

nzd/jpy also setting up for a pinbar right off 68.50 RN and around last high.

For any newbies out there, please don't trade this, this is just an experiment.
Good advice Custos,

The method we use on this thread is time tested and proven to work and that is what we use to trade live, this Pin bar test we are trying is niether tried nor proven and we are only testing "DO NOT TRADE THIS LIVE".

--NM
  • #2,073
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:45pm Jan 14, 2010 2:45pm
we seem to be stuck in ranges on most charts
Chris
  • #2,074
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:48pm Jan 14, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting gctrading1
we seem to be stuck in ranges on most charts
I see that, sooner or later something has to give.

--NM
  • #2,075
  • Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm Jan 14, 2010 3:57pm
audusd may break the s/r if it does i may look to play the bpc to the upside we will see.
Chris
  • #2,076
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:20pm Jan 14, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting gctrading1
audusd may break the s/r if it does i may look to play the bpc to the upside we will see.
If it breaks there is room to make some pippage for sure.

--NM
  • #2,077
  • Jan 14, 2010 4:58pm Jan 14, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting NightMoves
Patience is something you must have to be successfull in this market, you wait for just the right setup and then fire one shot because thats really all you need. Just wait for the target to get in your cross hairs, kind of like hunting wild game, you never shoot in the brush piles and you never chase after it, it will come back, then wait for the target to turn broadside once in the clearing and you touch off only one shot you should need no more.

--NM
I like that analogy....like you are stalking the trade. Very good.
  • #2,078
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:05pm Jan 14, 2010 5:05pm
euraud 30min chart and the audusd are the only pairs that look some what ok. The best of the two is euraud. i will probably call it a night early and trade the london open. Any other pairs i am missing?
Chris
  • #2,079
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:11pm Jan 14, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting gctrading1
euraud 30min chart and the audusd are the only pairs that look some what ok. The best of the two is euraud. i will probably call it a night early and trade the london open. Any other pairs i am missing?
The AUDJPY might be a good one to watch...

--NM
  • #2,080
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:13pm Jan 14, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting NightMoves
The AUDJPY might be a good one to watch...

--NM
I am also watching the AUDCAD pair, if that goes I may be in a longer term trade on that one rather than an intraday trade.

--NM
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