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  • #177,641
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:18am Jan 5, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Matt99
If I understand u correctly , trust the charts?
yes.. but sometimes what i just said isnt on the chart.. but it is on the charts this time.. sometimes charts have to catch up..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #177,642
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:24am Jan 5, 2010 11:24am
Long now or long at 1.4320-25....thats the question.

No real buyers out there seems, nor sellers either right now...or just maybe wait to short from 1.4380....i go to goddamn sauna to figure it out, market is so slow that i might be fast enough to do it
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #177,643
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:25am Jan 5, 2010 11:25am
  • #177,644
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:41am Jan 5, 2010 11:41am
Quoting gatorinla
yes.. but sometimes what i just said isnt on the chart.. but it is on the charts this time.. sometimes charts have to catch up..
Ok ,so how do I know when it catch right away and when it doesn't?

What those white lines on your chart? Resistance and support?
  • #177,645
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:41am Jan 5, 2010 11:41am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Long now or long at 1.4320-25....thats the question.

No real buyers out there seems, nor sellers either right now...or just maybe wait to short from 1.4380....i go to goddamn sauna to figure it out, market is so slow that i might be fast enough to do it
mabe this will help. i expected a bounce @4335/37 area..other levels may help entry exit for scalpers.. big boys more then likely on the range edges.. until nfp it may be nap time..pack a lunch
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #177,646
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:48am Jan 5, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Matt99
Ok ,so how do I know when it catch right away and when it doesn't?

What those white lines on your chart? Resistance and support?
we had a period last year before march where all news good or bad for u.s. weighted eu... e-z is joined at the ankles to u.s. since they are a big exporter to u.s. so bad news in u.s. trickled down to ez.. bad news in ez also helped usd.. this is not normal... but when its happend usd got stronger.. this changed in march.. it has little signs it may be comming back..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #177,647
  • Jan 5, 2010 11:57am Jan 5, 2010 11:57am
Quoting gatorinla
we had a period last year before march where all news good or bad for u.s. weighted eu... e-z is joined at the ankles to u.s. since they are a big exporter to u.s. so bad news in u.s. trickled down to ez.. bad news in ez also helped usd.. this is not normal... but when its happend usd got stronger.. this changed in march.. it has little signs it may be comming back..
So thats why it went downhill when it should go up. Bad for news for dollar is bad for ez aswell.
  • #177,648
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:01pm Jan 5, 2010 12:01pm
got 55 pips. still the day is more than -40 pips overall. could have cut losses in so many places...

still have to take my desires out of my trading.

anyway looking forward to another short at 1.438

or will this be another range and it will go up to 1.446 again?

hapipipin
dreams do come true.
  • #177,649
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:07pm Jan 5, 2010 12:07pm
Its end of the day now and we have to come tomorrow morning. Best times for trading the EUR are either 3:30-4:30 AM EST or between 10:30 AM - 12:30 PM EST.

Even if 4380 gets hit, it wont be the best trade.

All other times are useless 80% of the time
  • #177,650
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:10pm Jan 5, 2010 12:10pm
i was looking into leaving a short open for the tokyo session. maybe just a few pips more....
dreams do come true.
  • #177,651
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:15pm Jan 5, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
it may take years to learn this..some may never learn this. but when news moves a market time after time in a direction opposite of where it should have gone.. dont fight it. even if it does move the direction you thought...then returns to a place it shouldnt be. dont fight it. you cant afford it..when market whispers this, pay attention.. market can whisper or kick you in the nutz when you dont listen..

comments on news

1) news is designed to add volatlity with market. Take news away and eu would remian in 5 pip range for decades

2) pros buy into strength and sell into weakness. If pros are bearish long term and pair moves up 200 pip on ' good news ' watch for ultra hihg wide spread up candles ... 99% of time this is hidden seller , wait for a dip ... then a double top ...GU chart shows this

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #177,652
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:17pm Jan 5, 2010 12:17pm
No dont try.

Out of my experience, technical analysis is best when you get close to these 2 times.

So 1-1.5 hour before the EUR opens in Frankfurt and 1 - 1.5 hour after it opens in New York are when you get to calculate the best positions for your trade. You then wait so that it will hit it and then go in with minimal stress.

Keeping a position for the EUR when the Japan session opens is a bit risky. I am not saying it wont work, I am just saying that your odds increase if you trade within those 2 time slots. The basic reason is that they are when the banks in Europe try to do their end of day accounting (10:30 - 12:30) and when the banks in Asia try to close and European banks open.

25 - 30 pips a day of profit for me is good enough.

Sometimes I dont even go for any trade because the range for the EUR is only 50 pips.

Take the daily range for the EUR (ie Resistance - Support) divide it by 3, and be happy if you make it.

For example if the distance between support and resistance that you find on the chart is 60 pips, then divide by 3, that gives 20, and be happy if you collect your 20 pips.

If you make more thats great, get out and stay out.

Only trade within those times.

For me I trade the New York Session only.

Take care
  • #177,653
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:22pm Jan 5, 2010 12:22pm
Support found.
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  • #177,654
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:23pm Jan 5, 2010 12:23pm
Kam

just wanted to say .. only 6 posts and this is one of the best ones I have seen on FF.

Nice job....

lol I like asia and euro comment.... so many trade eu in asia... hello components of eu are euro and usd...lol

Quoting Kambooj
No dont try.

Out of my experience, technical analysis is best when you get close to these 2 times.

So 1-1.5 hour before the EUR opens in Frankfurt and 1 - 1.5 hour after it opens in New York are when you get to calculate the best positions for your trade. You then wait so that it will hit it and then go in with minimal stress.

Keeping a position for the EUR when the Japan session opens is a bit risky. I am not saying it wont work, I am just saying that your odds increase if you trade within those 2 time slots. The basic reason is that they...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #177,655
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:34pm Jan 5, 2010 12:34pm
Sorry I meant EUR/USD

You can try this scenario any time: (It will happen 80% of the time)
Assume its 5:30 PM EST.

You do all your calculations and figure that position 1.xxxx is the best spot for a position and some time during the japaneese session it will hit it. and according to your calculations you only need 10 pips of stoploss to get in on a trade for a 30 pip profit, and we assume that your direction is 100% right.

This is what happens:

You will spend from 7:30 PM to 1:30 AM checking your position, it will hit it with 10 pips of stoploss, and it will go for you for 25 pips, then it will retrace, but it wont come close to your entry price and it keeps on coming close but never hitting your price, then what happens as we get close to 1:30-2:30 is that, the same spot that you originally got in earlier gets hit like a lightning bolt and then it will go in the same direction that you originally mentioned.

So why bother to ruin your evening and trade a currency such as this in the Asian session.
  • #177,656
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:38pm Jan 5, 2010 12:38pm
besides i am very tired...

completely agree with the 20-25 pips. wish i could and, in a couple of years, i would have a good daily income.

i am in europe and intend to trade 7h00 to 8h00 GMT, than leave for work and then take a peak by lunch time 13h to 14h30.

truth is end of the day i usually stay late trading, or should i say looooossssiiiiinnnnggg money (at least i loose it slowly).

still a lot to learn. thanks for the advice.

hapipiping

Malcom, tired as i am it will take me a few days to understand your words on volume, but i will do it (this shows me how far i am still from being a proficient trader: i thought we only had volume on stocks. read it somewhere and believe it
dreams do come true.
  • #177,657
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:40pm Jan 5, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Kam

just wanted to say .. only 6 posts and this is one of the best ones I have seen on FF.

Nice job....

lol I like asia and euro comment.... so many trade eu in asia... hello components of eu are euro and usd...lol
I'm surprised you would make that comment being that you used to be a g/y guy, but just in case you haven't noticed, look at your charts. The Asian session has been rocking the the eu boat these last couple of months.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #177,658
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:53pm Jan 5, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting wannaberich
i was looking into leaving a short open for the tokyo session. maybe just a few pips more....
don't be greedy, be patient what is it to gain a few extra pips or take the chance of it turning on you and having to take a loss.
  • #177,659
  • Jan 5, 2010 12:55pm Jan 5, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting tonyo524
I'm surprised you would make that comment being that you used to be a g/y guy, but just in case you haven't noticed, look at your charts. The Asian session has been rocking the the eu boat these last couple of months.
gy I like in asia.

Must admit eu and gu have been moving also , but not typicaly until around 9:30 pst when moscow and dubai start to stir.

also as most of my trading is vsa based I seem to be more active these days in either frankfrut / early london or us / euro overlap
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #177,660
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:08pm Jan 5, 2010 1:08pm
Another Advice

When the New York Session opens at 8:30 AM, most often than not, 80% of the time, excluding Non Farm Payroll days, the real good positions start to reveal themselves at around 9:30. If nothing reveals itself at that time, then stay out. The basic reason is that the S&P market/stock market starts to open around that time. The traders working in the big banks and the major trading institutions start to come in around that time, by the time they get their coffee and sit on their desk and get into the trading mode its 10:30 AM EST. Between 10:30 and 12:30 you will see the good positions for the EUR/USD pair get hit.


If the S&P goes up then the EUR/USD goes up (most of the time), if S&P comes down then the EUR/USD comes down (most of the time). If you are confused on direction, just watch the S&P for a while and see its correlation with the EUR/USD and see how often the best positions do show up at around the times I just mentioned.
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