yes, i was thinking the same thing with one small detail - the down move is not yet confirmed but it will be as soon as we break 144.80 area.
will post some charts soon to explain my scenario.
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #210,561
- Dec 18, 2009 11:15am Dec 18, 2009 11:15am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,510 Posts
- #210,562
- Dec 18, 2009 12:06pm Dec 18, 2009 12:06pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
will post some charts soon to explain my scenario.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #210,564
- Dec 18, 2009 1:05pm Dec 18, 2009 1:05pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: aka Neal Vanderstelt | 2,902 Posts
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
- #210,565
- Dec 18, 2009 1:20pm Dec 18, 2009 1:20pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Keep it that way!!
Hey what's up ukdaytrader and donfriday.
things have been going good for me since i left this thread.
have a merry christamas.
Neal
[
- #210,566
- Dec 18, 2009 2:18pm Dec 18, 2009 2:18pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
- #210,567
- Dec 18, 2009 2:46pm Dec 18, 2009 2:46pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
alright. here is my view on g-j, i tried to make my charts as simple as possible.
daily chart shows very important things about overall direction:
- the main trend is down,
- first important resistance remains @ 149.34
- first support @ 141.82
- and finally, the most intense activity for current month is @ 145.81.
what this means: since main direction remains down, we should be looking for shorting opportunities AS LONG AS PRICE STAYS BELOW 149.34 area (actually, it can go even to 150.30/80... but that's another story). first such opportunity was @ 149 two weeks ago; the second one is now or is coming soon, and for that one let's look at smaller tfs.
keeping in mind that daily trend is down, let's go to h4. i marked by arrows where weekly pvp was for the last 4 weeks; just look at the chart, it's so nice! 141.61, 142.58, 143.64 (this one was tested last night and price bounced back - not ready to fall yet) and now 145.67.
what this means: price is climbing back, and last key area is 145.67; since daily chart says down, we are waiting for a break of 145.67 and then down we should go. just beware of fake breaks... and keep in mind that price can continue climbing to 149 without changing the overall bearish bias.
and last chart is m30, showing daily profiles. well, according to this chart, we already have a resistance in place - price is below daily pvp @ 146.20 so the bias turned bearish. however, we need to see what happens next week: 146.20 might be tested again, and if it gives way then 146.60 is next - and if this one is broken, then expect a test of 148.50/149.
that's it. long story short, the focus is on 145.67 - key to downside; and 146.20/60 - key to 148.50/149.
enjoy the weekend and see you next week.
daily chart shows very important things about overall direction:
- the main trend is down,
- first important resistance remains @ 149.34
- first support @ 141.82
- and finally, the most intense activity for current month is @ 145.81.
what this means: since main direction remains down, we should be looking for shorting opportunities AS LONG AS PRICE STAYS BELOW 149.34 area (actually, it can go even to 150.30/80... but that's another story). first such opportunity was @ 149 two weeks ago; the second one is now or is coming soon, and for that one let's look at smaller tfs.
keeping in mind that daily trend is down, let's go to h4. i marked by arrows where weekly pvp was for the last 4 weeks; just look at the chart, it's so nice! 141.61, 142.58, 143.64 (this one was tested last night and price bounced back - not ready to fall yet) and now 145.67.
what this means: price is climbing back, and last key area is 145.67; since daily chart says down, we are waiting for a break of 145.67 and then down we should go. just beware of fake breaks... and keep in mind that price can continue climbing to 149 without changing the overall bearish bias.
and last chart is m30, showing daily profiles. well, according to this chart, we already have a resistance in place - price is below daily pvp @ 146.20 so the bias turned bearish. however, we need to see what happens next week: 146.20 might be tested again, and if it gives way then 146.60 is next - and if this one is broken, then expect a test of 148.50/149.
that's it. long story short, the focus is on 145.67 - key to downside; and 146.20/60 - key to 148.50/149.
enjoy the weekend and see you next week.
Please do... dying of boredom.
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #210,568
- Dec 18, 2009 3:53pm Dec 18, 2009 3:53pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Divergence Seeker | 1,749 Posts
- #210,570
- Dec 18, 2009 5:36pm Dec 18, 2009 5:36pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
Hey what's up ukdaytrader and donfriday.
things have been going good for me since i left this thread.
have a merry christamas.
Neal
I am cool bro, u just vanish to ur thinking room without invite..drop note next time the board is dry ..yeah bro good to stay cool and stick with your own analysis sometime, i am thinking same thing next year.I wish you merry Christmas and prosperous new year..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #210,571
- Edited 2:00am Dec 19, 2009 1:47am | Edited 2:00am
Looks like wave 2 just completed. . .
Lets see where wave 3 takes us. . .
As a rule, Wave 3 will be the longest of the 5 waves, follow by a retracement after wave 5 of ABC.
Disclaimer: I am a novice who is interested in forex education and how technical analysis works for traders.
- #210,574
- Edited 4:12pm Dec 19, 2009 5:28am | Edited 4:12pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
- #210,575
- Dec 19, 2009 7:42am Dec 19, 2009 7:42am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #210,577
- Dec 19, 2009 10:25am Dec 19, 2009 10:25am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #210,578
- Edited 8:38am Dec 20, 2009 8:11am | Edited 8:38am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
GY
For me, the daily shows no clear direction. As stated previously, I am expecting a rise. Looking at the daily chart, I’m expecting at least the high 147/low 148 levels. And, as stated in previous post, if Geppy reaches these levels, it is not inconceivable to consider further rises. From my chart, the next obvious level would be the 151 region. That said, there does seem to be a descending trendline in the way of such a move… much the same as the immediate trendline has arrested any moves higher. It is interesting to see how in moving down the trident pattern that originates from the 163 level, price have twice bounced off the 139-ish region and made its way back up to the UTL of the trident. Perhaps this time it will convincingly break to the upside, and remain so.
On the 4hr, one can definitely see how price is obeying expected movement at trendlines. I remain convinced that we will oscillate within this triangle – maybe for the remainder of this year. My preferred scenario is for a break north. From here, I would like a hard fall south – I am expecting Cable to break south somewhat next year – but I am mindful of the expected strength of the Dollar, and thus UJ, which may support GJ from serious decline.
I am not in any trade at present, but will consider shorts from the high 147/low 148 region; and again, at the 151 region. That said, I may scalp the closing triangle this week… just to keep myself busy for a few days before departing for my much anticipated skiing break in the Alps.
Hope all have an easy week, and nice festive season.
For me, the daily shows no clear direction. As stated previously, I am expecting a rise. Looking at the daily chart, I’m expecting at least the high 147/low 148 levels. And, as stated in previous post, if Geppy reaches these levels, it is not inconceivable to consider further rises. From my chart, the next obvious level would be the 151 region. That said, there does seem to be a descending trendline in the way of such a move… much the same as the immediate trendline has arrested any moves higher. It is interesting to see how in moving down the trident pattern that originates from the 163 level, price have twice bounced off the 139-ish region and made its way back up to the UTL of the trident. Perhaps this time it will convincingly break to the upside, and remain so.
On the 4hr, one can definitely see how price is obeying expected movement at trendlines. I remain convinced that we will oscillate within this triangle – maybe for the remainder of this year. My preferred scenario is for a break north. From here, I would like a hard fall south – I am expecting Cable to break south somewhat next year – but I am mindful of the expected strength of the Dollar, and thus UJ, which may support GJ from serious decline.
I am not in any trade at present, but will consider shorts from the high 147/low 148 region; and again, at the 151 region. That said, I may scalp the closing triangle this week… just to keep myself busy for a few days before departing for my much anticipated skiing break in the Alps.
Hope all have an easy week, and nice festive season.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #210,579
- Edited 11:40am Dec 20, 2009 9:01am | Edited 11:40am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
