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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #1,241
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:53am Dec 14, 2009 11:53am
Hi, attached is a gbp/cad d1 chart as an overview and H4 chart as my setup chart.

I think we are about to get an in-range trade. on the H1 a 1-2-3 is forming. Nevertheless, I am gonna drop my lot-size significantly, cause this triggers too late in the session, it might not follow through with momentum.

best regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad d1 14.12.2009.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad h4 14.12.2009.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #1,242
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:42pm Dec 14, 2009 12:42pm
N M, thanks a lot for starting this thread. i have really gained alot. just keep doing what you are doing. more greese to your elbows. Hector Trading system Rocks...........
As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he.
  • #1,243
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:28pm Dec 14, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting Sutts
Thanks guys. My problem is what defines trend when the SMAs are mixed up.
Should I be looking for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows or will a single trendline or SMA suffice?

I'm just looking for confirmation of major trend direction when I see a nice breakout forming up.

Cheers,

Dave
Dave,
If I see the SMA lines are all mixed up and not in order, then I will wait, or possibly change to a different TF and look it over again. If the they are all mixed up on all time frames then really the price is bouncing all over the place and though it might tradable the risk factor is much higher. And trading is all about reducing risk.

Sometimes they will be all mixed up and the larger TF market momentum is obviously trending in one direction or another, finding an entry may be more difficult unless it is an area of consolidation and you are waiting the breakout in the direction of the trending market then you would trade the breakout as you would any other pattern breakout but only in the direction of the trend. Make Sense?

--NM
  • #1,244
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:38pm Dec 14, 2009 1:38pm
Custos,

I rode this pair down 40 pips today as the H4 looked like a decent setup - see earlier post. Unfortunately it didn't make it to the weekly pivot which was my second target and I closed out early when it showed signs of reversing.

When it got down to the 7240 area it looked like an even better setup on the M30 chart - 3 bounces off the 30 SMA and within the fib zone so then I took a long entry on a 5 minute bpc. The trade ran out of time and momentum and I closed out for +10 not long ago. Maybe I'll have another go tomorrow as the trend on the M30 looks very nice (to my untrained eye) compared to other pairs at the moment.

The spread is horrible though and spoils it a bit.

Cheers,

Dave
  • #1,245
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:40pm Dec 14, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting Sutts
Thanks guys. My problem is what defines trend when the SMAs are mixed up.
Should I be looking for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows or will a single trendline or SMA suffice?

I'm just looking for confirmation of major trend direction when I see a nice breakout forming up.

Cheers,

Dave
Dave,
Here is an example that shows the USDCHF pair is obviously trending down, but because PA is really all over the place I would not consider an entry into this with the thought of low risk trade. There are much better trades that will produce a much lower risk to trade than something like this. You can trade this and it probably will work ok, but of course it is obvious this is carries a higher risk factor..

--NM

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: risky trading this.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,246
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:49pm Dec 14, 2009 1:49pm
NM,

Yes, makes sense thanks. I've missed most of the breakout trades you've taken mainly due to inexperience and lack of confidence. I guess I'm just looking for a set of rules to validate a good breakout play until I build the level of experience you have.

I'm very happy with the progress I'm making however. Not sure if all my entries are the low risk type I should be taking but I'm taking pips on most of them which is very encouraging. Setting realistic targets is my biggest problem and will be for some time I suspect. I was so convinced GBPCAD would touch the weekly pivot again as it was soooo close but it didn't and I had to abandon my second target.

Thanks for your continued support, it's much appreciated.

Cheers,

Dave
  • #1,247
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:53pm Dec 14, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting NightMoves
Dave,
Here is an example that shows the USDCHF pair is obviously trending down, but because PA is really all over the place I would not consider an entry into this with the thought of low risk trade. There are much better trades that will produce a much lower risk to trade than something like this. You can trade this and it probably will work ok, but of course it is obvious this is carries a higher risk factor..

--NM

--NM
Thanks for that example NM. The 2 things I notice are the deep swings - obviously exceeding the ideal 38-61% area and the failure to put in a lower low with the resulting 1-2-3 reveral pattern. Anything else that shows a red flag on this trend?

Dave
  • #1,248
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:18pm Dec 14, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting Sutts
Thanks for that example NM. The 2 things I notice are the deep swings - obviously exceeding the ideal 38-61% area and the failure to put in a lower low with the resulting 1-2-3 reveral pattern. Anything else that shows a red flag on this trend?

Dave
I think even though it is trending down and has stalled somewhat I would not take this trade until it gets a little more organized, it just looks to me like it had a nice trend trend going then staleed and not even the triangle pattern looks subject, imo would just pass on this setup for awhile and see if it can get going again.

Here is an example of the USDJPY, look at how nice it was swinging off the SMA 30 and then started Swinging off the 50 and then the 100 and finally it fell apart all together, whe the retracements start digging in deeper and deeper it might be time to back off and wait, even though the inpulse traces were pretty much reaching the ADR the digs were getting deeper and because of each retracement digging deeper the ADR was not even reaching the last swing high, a good sign the trend is under pressure before it gives way entirely and keeps you from getting into a trade about to go the wrong way on you...

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: falling apart.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,249
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:02pm Dec 14, 2009 3:02pm
Agreed NM, that's a nice trend for sure. I think when I finally get to identify and ride one of these nice trends (probably in the new year now) I'll no longer be asking stupid questions like this! I just haven't had the positive experience of extracting regular pips from a nice harmonic trend before and I know when I do there will be no going back.

Any idea how long things typically take to get going trend-wise at the start of a new year?

Thanks again,

Dave
  • #1,250
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:14pm Dec 14, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting Sutts
Agreed NM, that's a nice trend for sure. I think when I finally get to identify and ride one of these nice trends (probably in the new year now) I'll no longer be asking stupid questions like this! I just haven't had the positive experience of extracting regular pips from a nice harmonic trend before and I know when I do there will be no going back.

Any idea how long things typically take to get going trend-wise at the start of a new year?

Thanks again,

Dave
Usually around the second week is when things start to pick up. By the time things get started again the market is pretty flat. Trend trading is the only to trade imo, low risk high probability trades over and over.

It is nothing more than selling resistance and buying support with a good organized pattern.

--NM
  • #1,251
  • Dec 14, 2009 7:07pm Dec 14, 2009 7:07pm
Thanks for posting this ...i thought that my Dashboard has developed some problems ...its whitewash out there.

Quoting NightMoves
Looking like December out there!

--NM
  • #1,252
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:51pm Dec 14, 2009 10:51pm
Quoting NightMoves
Usually around the second week is when things start to pick up. By the time things get started again the market is pretty flat. Trend trading is the only to trade imo, low risk high probability trades over and over.

It is nothing more than selling resistance and buying support with a good organized pattern.

--NM
Cheers NM, I'm looking forward to that.

Dave
  • #1,253
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:12pm Dec 14, 2009 11:12pm
I'm a novice when it comes to breakouts so I'd appreciate any feedback you can give me on the following please.

On H4 GU seems to be ranging between approx. 6312-6211. We've been in a pretty decent down trend on H4 and D1 lately so I guess a break downwards would be fair game for us trend traders.

On the next move down, if price manages to reach the lower boundary then it would be breaking a D1 trendline. A bouce and retest of this may be a good short opportunity?

What do you think?
  • #1,254
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:18pm Dec 14, 2009 11:18pm
On the other hand, the steep decline followed by nice solid basing action is paving the way for a nice breakout to the upside - but trend traders should pass on this. Is this a reasonable interpretation?
  • #1,255
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:26pm Dec 14, 2009 11:26pm
Quoting Sutts
I'm a novice when it comes to breakouts so I'd appreciate any feedback you can give me on the following please.

On H4 GU seems to be ranging between approx. 6312-6211. We've been in a pretty decent down trend on H4 and D1 lately so I guess a break downwards would be fair game for us trend traders.

On the next move down, if price manages to reach the lower boundary then it would be breaking a D1 trendline. A bouce and retest of this may be a good short opportunity?

What do you think?
Looks good to me, that range. Just make sure the bpc also breaks through the 1.6120 level, which has acted as S/R level lately. Otherwise the breakout could reverse on you immediately.
but not quite sure which D1 trendline you mean. Could you post a chart? Cause I don't have any d1 trendline in the vinicity of the range breakout.

best regards
  • #1,256
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:28pm Dec 14, 2009 11:28pm
Quoting Sutts
On the other hand, the steep decline followed by nice solid basing action is paving the way for a nice breakout to the upside - but trend traders should pass on this. Is this a reasonable interpretation?
Yeah, only trade setups with the trend, and if you ever take counter-trend trades, decrease your lot-size drastically.
  • #1,257
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:46pm Dec 14, 2009 11:46pm
Thanks Custos, here's the H4 and D1 charts I'm looking at.

Dave
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-D1.GIF Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-H4.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #1,258
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:20am Dec 15, 2009 12:20am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks Custos, here's the H4 and D1 charts I'm looking at.

Dave
okay, in the chart attached the green trendline shows how I would draw the trendline. Trendlines are showing a trend, so you need two higher (lower) lows to draw the trendline.
Again, you always have to think, where is that most obvious point for that trendline, would all the other traders also put a trendline there? Otherwise it has no significance.
So, in my opinion, I would delete your trendline, just mark the range and wait for a breakout there and watch if it also breaks the S/R level below it.

Hope that makes sense?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd d1 15.12.2009.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #1,259
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:25am Dec 15, 2009 12:25am
Quoting Custos
okay, in the chart attached the green trendline shows how I would draw the trendline. Trendlines are showing a trend, so you need two higher (lower) lows to draw the trendline.
Again, you always have to think, where is that most obvious point for that trendline, would all the other traders also put a trendline there? Otherwise it has no significance.
So, in my opinion, I would delete your trendline, just mark the range and wait for a breakout there and watch if it also breaks the S/R level below it.

Hope that makes sense?
Sorry, I meant to say that you need two higher lows or two lower highs to draw a trendline

best regards
  • #1,260
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:01am Dec 15, 2009 2:01am
Quoting Custos
Sorry, I meant to say that you need two higher lows or two lower highs to draw a trendline

best regards
Thanks for the help Custos, I've got it now. I guess the 2 lows would have to be a good number of bars apart too - not just a touch followed by a retest 3 bars later like in my D1 example. I'll remove my dodgy trendline!

Cheers,

Dave
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