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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #1,221
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:01am Dec 14, 2009 1:01am
Quoting Custos
well, I don't have any intraday-trades, at least for the london session. However, I got on almost every pair a setup from H4 to weekly, so I don't think anything is gonna trigger today.

oh yeah, I also took a very risky short on usd/chf at the weekly trendline, and moved my stop already to breakeven, so it's a risk free trade.

best regards
ohh. i cant see the set up in the usd chf chart. on which terms did u take as a trigger sign to enter the trade =D
  • #1,222
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:20am Dec 14, 2009 2:20am
Quoting ja5on
ohh. i cant see the set up in the usd chf chart. on which terms did u take as a trigger sign to enter the trade =D
Hi, well, as stated a couple of posts above, I also try a strategy of just taking the initial bounce from a trendline. I actually wanted to enter when price reached exactly the trendline and then wait for it to retrace back down a couple of pips on friday, but as it happened so late on friday, I was unsure if the market wouldn't open higher on monday, so I waited till the open on monday.

So, on monday open I entered at current price with a stop above the recently made high and moved stop now to b/e. Worst case scenario now is that price hits my stop and I don't lose anything. Best case scenario is that price goes for a whole new swing to the downside on the weekly chart. Risk Reward on this trade is 1:15. I'd say that this is a pretty damn good risk reward for taking just the bounce of a trendline.

best regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf h1 14.12.2009.gif Size: 58 KB
  • #1,223
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:32am Dec 14, 2009 3:32am
Quoting VonBek
Hi Sutts,

I use Micro lots, no problems at all. The only way i could trade at the moment.

I went live 8 weeks ago with £25, I now have £229.49.
I currently risk 5% per trade, which means next week my lot size will be 0.04 as I use a SL of 40. My intention is to drop the risk by 0.5% as my account grows.

I only aim for 150 pips per week, I have managed to do that 6 out of the 8 weeks, I have only had 1 bad week, and the MM kept losses small. As long as I keep to my rules I should hit £1000 by Feb next year, not a bad return on £25.

It is...

Thanks for info. Sounds like you've got what it takes, well done. I may give micro a chance yet.

Cheers,

Dave
  • #1,224
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:37am Dec 14, 2009 3:37am
Quoting NightMoves
Hi Dave,
Trading trends and using PA to do it is by far the best way to trade this market, you might not place a trade everyday of the week because your now waiting for the setup, but the ones you do place have a much higher probability of being winners and scoring you profits.

And trading is all about reducing risk when the market is on your side you have already taken away one huge negative factor out of the equation.

--NM

Agreed NM. What I have to do is fight the urge to take poor setups with the trends all messed up as they are. I should really wait till the new year I suppose but I'm itching to practice my new found techniques.

Your guidance has already helped enormously by the way. I've made far fewer stupid trades recently.

Cheers,

Dave
  • #1,225
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:23am Dec 14, 2009 4:23am
Does anyone think the potential GBPCAD short setup on H4 looks promising?

It's in the fib zone of the bigger move down from the 4th Dec and has pulled back to the 30 SMA 3 times recently within the parallel SMAs all pointing down.

It's now pulled back further to test the 50 SMA.

I'm waiting to see if it breaks the retracement trendline and hooks under the 1.7250 RN.

As with many other pairs, the recent double bottom and 1-2-3 pattern is worrying though.

What do you guys think?
  • #1,226
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:51am Dec 14, 2009 4:51am
Quoting Sutts
Does anyone think the potential GBPCAD short setup on H4 looks promising?

It's in the fib zone of the bigger move down from the 4th Dec and has pulled back to the 30 SMA 3 times recently within the parallel SMAs all pointing down.

It's now pulled back further to test the 50 SMA.

I'm waiting to see if it breaks the retracement trendline and hooks under the 1.7250 RN.

As with many other pairs, the recent double bottom and 1-2-3 pattern is worrying though.

What do you guys think?
H Dave,
I took a look at the GBPCAD pair, and it looks like it is in a decent spot, I think your strategy in this pari sounds good. I do not have the pair on MT4 I looked at it on my live trading platform and it does not save images. But yes wait for good conrformation and see what it does. But yep it looks good right now.

--NM
  • #1,227
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:05am Dec 14, 2009 5:05am
i shorted UJ pair for long term down trend base on the daily setup chart. dont know how will it go. currently positive 20pips. =D
have to keep till tml and see how
  • #1,228
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:13am Dec 14, 2009 5:13am
Quoting ja5on
i shorted UJ pair for long term down trend base on the daily setup chart. dont know how will it go. currently positive 20pips. =D
have to keep till tml and see how
If that formation holds out it could be a runner and you might score a ton of pips on that pair, that is similar to the one I took lastnight. It is below 88.50 now so you might be in good shape. Just watch it close the formation is not complete but if you can trade it on the way down all the better...

--NM
  • #1,229
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:20am Dec 14, 2009 5:20am
Thanks for looking that setup over NM. I've just noticed the spread is 9 pips which has put me off it a bit!

BTW: do you think the USDCHF pair may have started its harmonic bouncing on the H1? The SMAs are nicely aligned, it's bounced once off the 30 and is just coming back for another. Shame about that nasty H1 downward trendline in the way of a move up though. Would you normally wait for such an obstruction to be breached first NM?

Dave
  • #1,230
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:22am Dec 14, 2009 5:22am
Quoting NightMoves
If that formation holds out it could be a runner and you might score a ton of pips on that pair, that is similar to the one I took lastnight. It is below 88.50 now so you might be in good shape. Just watch it close the formation is not complete but if you can trade it on the way down all the better...

--NM
yea the problem now is i canot close of the trade. if i want to close i have to close the full trade. i will BE once i have 50 pips profit and see how it goes. u meant the formation is not complete becore of the continuation did not really formed?
  • #1,231
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:39am Dec 14, 2009 5:39am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks for looking that setup over NM. I've just noticed the spread is 9 pips which has put me off it a bit!

BTW: do you think the USDCHF pair may have started its harmonic bouncing on the H1? The SMAs are nicely aligned, it's bounced once off the 30 and is just coming back for another. Shame about that nasty H1 downward trendline in the way of a move up though. Would you normally wait for such an obstruction to be breached first NM?

Dave
Dave,

It has started bouncing but not with any real consistancy yet and that dip back to the 100 MA would make we wait a bit.

The bouncing is not really causing it to move and I would wait for it to at least cross over the next RN and once it got above the previous high then I it looks like it has a chance.

I have beem watching this pair too hoping for a more consistant entry but so far I have not seen anyhing that I am comfortable with at least not yet..

--NM
  • #1,232
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:02am Dec 14, 2009 6:02am
Thanks for the tips NM.

So...

When a touch of the 100 SMA is still a recent event then wait a while longer.

In a healthy trend we should be seeing decent sized bounces off the 30/50 - this one may be coming back a little too soon.

The fact that the first bounce off the 30 SMA didn't even take out the last retracement trendline adds further caution.

All good stuff...I'm learning!

Thanks,

Dave
  • #1,233
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:51am Dec 14, 2009 8:51am
NM,

I've seen you refer to a number of break-out trades in line with the trend. Are the criteria as strict in this kind of setup with regards to the 3 SMAs or is it enough that say the 100 SMA is pointing up when the break-out occurs in the same direction?

Thanks,

Dave
  • #1,234
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:05am Dec 14, 2009 9:05am
Looking like December out there!

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,235
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:36am Dec 14, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Sutts
NM,

I've seen you refer to a number of break-out trades in line with the trend. Are the criteria as strict in this kind of setup with regards to the 3 SMAs or is it enough that say the 100 SMA is pointing up when the break-out occurs in the same direction?

Thanks,

Dave
Maybe I can answer that,

In general it is always good to have a clean setup with the SMA's.
However, the smas are just a guide to make it easier for you to see the trends, qualify them, and identify the setup chart.
Much more important are S/R levels. Only we here in this group and the ones who did hector's course are looking at the smas, but I guess ALL professionals are looking at the S/R levels. Most important, look if there is a trend and then look how price behaves at the S/R levels. Always trade with the trend and at the break of S/R levels. smas are just a guide.

best regards
  • #1,236
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:40am Dec 14, 2009 9:40am
Quoting Custos
Maybe I can answer that,

In general it is always good to have a clean setup with the SMA's.
However, the smas are just a guide to make it easier for you to see the trends, qualify them, and identify the setup chart.
Much more important are S/R levels. Only we here in this group and the ones who did hector's course are looking at the smas, but I guess ALL professionals are looking at the S/R levels. Most important, look if there is a trend and then look how price behaves at the S/R levels. Always trade with the trend and at the break of S/R levels....
Very well put!!

--NM
  • #1,237
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:17am Dec 14, 2009 11:17am
Thanks guys. My problem is what defines trend when the SMAs are mixed up.
Should I be looking for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows or will a single trendline or SMA suffice?

I'm just looking for confirmation of major trend direction when I see a nice breakout forming up.

Cheers,

Dave
  • #1,238
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:25am Dec 14, 2009 11:25am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks guys. My problem is what defines trend when the SMAs are mixed up.
Should I be looking for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows or will a single trendline or SMA suffice?

I'm just looking for confirmation of major trend direction when I see a nice breakout forming up.

Cheers,

Dave
I would say, if they are mixed up search for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows and draw a trend line from the lows. Then you got the indication where the trend is going.

Maybe NM can also share something for that matter.

best regards.
  • #1,239
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:28am Dec 14, 2009 11:28am
Quoting Custos
I would say, if they are mixed up search for 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows and draw a trend line from the lows. Then you got the indication where the trend is going.

Maybe NM can also share something for that matter.

best regards.
Also drawing trendlines is generally better, cause if you see that price breaks them, then the trend is probably no longer valid. However, if price breaks a SMA, it doesn't really mean much. Always remember, most people just look at S/R's, thus trendlines are very important, and if they can't hold, then something MIGHT go wrong with the trend.
  • #1,240
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:39am Dec 14, 2009 11:39am
Thanks Custos, that's a great help.

Dave
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