The alternative method (50 pip candles) | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

M candles / Custom candles for second charts 1 reply

Indicator needed - showing pip difference between candles open/close 8 replies

Daily Divergent Candles Method 96 replies

Calculating only buy candles vs sell candles 2 replies

my ultimate alternative method 42 replies

Attachments: The alternative method (50 pip candles)
Exit Attachments

The alternative method (50 pip candles)

  • #41
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:26pm Dec 8, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting Chris_B
My first trade with this system gave me a win...from 1.63000 to 1.62500 (+50)

now I'm long...according to the rules...from 1.62500...
We are in the same boat
  • #42
  • Dec 9, 2009 12:29am Dec 9, 2009 12:29am
Update:

second trade loss -50, third trade loss -100 now I'm long..

at the moment my sequence for closed trades is:

+50 -50 -100
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #43
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:14am Dec 9, 2009 1:14am
I used to use a similar system to this when playing roulette on even bets it worked great for a while then a run against the average sent you down and that was on a level playing field, well almost if you forget about the zero.
But here there is an edge you have by placing positions based on the strengths of the individual currencies of the pairs which must result in a more positive return?
  • #44
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:15am Dec 9, 2009 1:15am
I used to use a similar system to this when playing roulette on even bets it worked great for a while then a run against the average sent you down and that was on a level playing field, well almost if you forget about the zero.
But here there is an edge you have by placing positions based on the strengths of the individual currencies of the pairs which must result in a more positive return?
  • #45
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:17am Dec 9, 2009 1:17am
Quoting Koyco
I used to use a similar system to this when playing roulette on even bets it worked great for a while then a run against the average sent you down and that was on a level playing field, well almost if you forget about the zero.
But here there is an edge you have by placing positions based on the strengths of the individual currencies of the pairs which must result in a more positive return?
I think so...the difference is that roulette is really random...the market has some logic and I think we can find an hedge taking a look at the currency strenght and at the currency trend... at the moment I'm simply trying the strategy as per page #1...and let's see..
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #46
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:23am Dec 9, 2009 1:23am
Ok...update...4th trade win +200

my updated sequence:

+50 -50 -100 +200

total +100

...stop gambling for now...I have to go out of home :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alternative.gif Size: 15 KB
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #47
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:49am Dec 9, 2009 1:49am
Quoting Chris_B
Not sure of this...

When you win you are supposed to lose the next trade on a 50/50 basis..

for example:

trade 1: i win +50
trade 2: i double and i win +100 (total +150)
trade 3: i double and i lose -200 (total -50)
trade 4: i start again and i win +50 (total 0)
trade 5: i double and i lose -100 (total -100)

as you can see it won't work...

instead doubling on the lose and supposing the same sequence:

trade 1: i win +50
trade 2: i i win +50 (total +100)
trade 3: i lose -50 (total +50)
trade 4: i double and i win +100 (total +150)
trade...
Thats all well and good but you are fitting the maths to suit your side of the story. Take this one for example

Trade 1: Loss -50 @ 1 Lot (-$500)
Trade 2: Loss -50 @ 2 lots (-$1000)
Trade 3: Loss -50 @ 4 lots (-$2000)
Trade 4: Win + 50 @ 1 Lot (+$500)

Total after 4 trades = -$3000

Its all well and good to try to fit the maths to curve your theory. Realistically you will face times were your buy/sell alternate method losses more than 3 times. I have seen all sorts of models that after comprehensive testing show up to 10 losses in a row. How will that effect this method, I will let you do the maths.

It is in essence a shorten martigale theory and it doesnt matter how you apply it the chances are that like all martigale theories it will bust you in the end. I would rather take the first option win, win loss in which case you would be down slightly, then my option which would see you needing at least 6 or 7 winners in a row to make up for 3 straight losses.

Reality is that you will have times where you have cumulative losses and this type of thinking will shorten your longevity in this market. Dont believe me, then stick with it for as long as you can.

Razor

BTW I am not against this type of trading. I havent tested it personally but you must be aware of the overall expectancy of this trading over time. 2 months or so back testing is completely useless if the model has only worked over that period. At least 3 to 5 years of testing with a positive outcome is needed to test the method in detail. To say otherwise is your personal choice but you have been warned against models that fit the current curve.
  • #48
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:11am Dec 9, 2009 2:11am
Quoting Razor_trader
Thats all well and good but you are fitting the maths to suit your side of the story. Take this one for example

Trade 1: Loss -50 @ 1 Lot (-$500)
Trade 2: Loss -50 @ 2 lots (-$1000)
Trade 3: Loss -50 @ 4 lots (-$2000)
Trade 4: Win + 50 @ 1 Lot (+$500)

Total after 4 trades = -$3000

[i]Its all well and good to try to fit the maths to curve your theory. Realistically you will face times were your buy/sell alternate method losses more than 3 times. I have seen all sorts of models that after comprehensive testing show up to 10 losses in a row....
Hi!

I know perfectly and I agree with you..

I'm just playing with my demo account to see how this strategy works in real time...nothing more :-)
I'm not going to put a real euro on this...at the moment..martingale makes me scared..

First of all i'm using mini lots...starting with 0.10, in martingale you always have to start with the minimum lot available...or you will be killed soon...

And then...i wanna see if we can find an edge to risk less...for exemple...pointing more on sell during a downtrend and pointing more on buys during an uptrend...this can put probabilities on our side...just an idea...but i don't want to hijack the basic strategy...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #49
  • Dec 9, 2009 9:18am Dec 9, 2009 9:18am
I'm agree with Razor too, and i know martingales are dangerous. That's why i limited it to 3 levels.

You know, that is only statistics.
Every month, we will have 3 consecutives losses and -350 pips (-50-100-200). Since august this happened :
august = 1 time
september = 5
october = 5
november = 4
december =1

But the other trades are compensating this . I'm sure of that from august to november.
Maybe we will know a month with too many consecutive losses, that is why it is necessary to have a good money management and to risk only a certain % of the account. Then we could support a bad month without burning the account.

december updated : 650 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 09-12-09 17 42 05.jpg Size: 36 KB
  • #50
  • Dec 9, 2009 10:27am Dec 9, 2009 10:27am
HI,

Can anybody pls explain with some example trades....

Lets say cur pair x is trading at 1.0020, now I will keep one buy order at 1.0050 with stoploss of 1.0000 and tp of 1.0100.

ALso one sell order at 1.0000 with tp of 0.9950 and sl of 1.0050.

Lets say now it reaches 1.0050 and trade executed and then reaches 1.0100, will I close it or increase my sl to 1.0050 (trailing till my sl hits)

In another case, if it falls to 1.0000, I close my trade in loss, and take 2 positions (sell) at 1.0000 and continue this....

Once I reach maxm 3 consecutive losses I start from 1 lot again....

Clarify please If I am correct...
  • #51
  • Dec 9, 2009 12:13pm Dec 9, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting reachjj
HI,

Can anybody pls explain with some example trades....

Lets say cur pair x is trading at 1.0020, now I will keep one buy order at 1.0050 with stoploss of 1.0000 and tp of 1.0100.

ALso one sell order at 1.0000 with tp of 0.9950 and sl of 1.0050.

Lets say now it reaches 1.0050 and trade executed and then reaches 1.0100, will I close it or increase my sl to 1.0050 (trailing till my sl hits)

You close and go short

In another case, if it falls to 1.0000, I close my trade in loss, and take 2 positions (sell) at...
-
  • #52
  • Dec 9, 2009 12:14pm Dec 9, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting reachjj

In another case, if it falls to 1.0000, I close my trade in loss, and take 2 positions (sell) at 1.0000 and continue this....

Once I reach maxm 3 consecutive losses I start from 1 lot again....

Clarify please If I am correct...

Yes, correct
-
  • #53
  • Dec 9, 2009 11:59pm Dec 9, 2009 11:59pm
december updated : 800 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 09-12-10 08 48 48.jpg Size: 42 KB
  • #54
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:13am Dec 10, 2009 1:13am
One more candle and 50 pips more

i'm short now at 1.6300 TP=1.6250 SL=1.6350
  • #55
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:17am Dec 10, 2009 1:17am
Quoting zebulon
One more candle and 50 pips more

i'm short now at 1.6300 TP=1.6250 SL=1.6350
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #56
  • Dec 10, 2009 6:15am Dec 10, 2009 6:15am
Quoting zebulon
-
Does it mean, I always go one + and one -.. I mean one buy and one sell...

When it has reached will it not be a good idea to increase the stoploss and continue to hold that in that direction....
  • #57
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:06am Dec 10, 2009 7:06am
Quoting reachjj
Does it mean, I always go one + and one -.. I mean one buy and one sell...

When it has reached will it not be a good idea to increase the stoploss and continue to hold that in that direction....
Yes buy, sell, buy, sell, buy, sell, except in certain ranges.
Go to the first posts ...you'll understand
  • #58
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:26am Dec 10, 2009 7:26am
One more candle, and 50 pips more

december = 900 pips

i'm long now at 1.6250
  • #59
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:33pm Dec 10, 2009 2:33pm
Interesting concept. Can we please have whatever indicator/profile you use to draw you bars?

Thanks
Please pull my head out of my ass, I am running out of oxygen...
  • #60
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:43pm Dec 10, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting PiPtHiEf
Interesting concept. Can we please have whatever indicator/profile you use to draw you bars?

Thanks
I just draw manually on the chart !!
0 traders viewing now