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Silent Service Method

  • #6,121
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:09pm Dec 7, 2009 3:09pm
Time to find out if the water is hot or cold.....

http://i48.tinypic.com/e85t2s.png
  • #6,122
  • Edited 7:54pm Dec 7, 2009 7:38pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting advfntrader
just bought into the Short Gold ETF...hoping to see $1000 before New Yaar
I was tempted to do the same thing, but then saw the bullish doji forming on the daily and decided I had better not. Also, I am unwilling to short gold itself, so why should I buy a gold bear ETF? That said, I may reconsider if/when I see some bearish PA on the daily TF around the area of the shoulder of last week's bearish pin bar. There is a trend line immediately above that daily doji that is serving as pretty stiff resistance it seems... at least for now. One thing I have learned (I think) is to not toy with the trend. Always respect the trend.
  • #6,123
  • Dec 7, 2009 8:10pm Dec 7, 2009 8:10pm
Anyone else ever noticed that in reading about the markets in the news there is very rarely any mention of any technical reasons why a market tops or bottoms where it does? In other words, we hardly ever read or hear that the reason the market stopped and turned where it did was because it met an area of strong support or resistance. Its always something about some development in the economy, like interest rates or the weather. If what I am saying is accepted as true, why is this? Is there a general lack of respect for, lack of knowledge of the technical side of trading on the part of those who bring us the "news"? Or is technical analysis viewed as some sort of voo doo or mysterious art? I for one believe both fundamental and technical analysis work, and specifically that the fundamentals are more important in the long run, and technicals in the short. What really screws with my head sometimes, though, is when a market is approaching an area of strong S/R and just as it gets there, some news event occurs that would logically cause it to reverse regardless of whether S/R is there or not. Its almost like sometimes, the technical controls the fundamental, i.e., predicts the future in a way. Okay, I am ready to be committed now!
  • #6,124
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:07pm Dec 7, 2009 9:07pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
I was tempted to do the same thing, but then saw the bullish doji forming on the daily and decided I had better not....
To be completely honest, I am simply waiting for a few levels to buy. All of them are below here. It probably means buying gold next year, but so be it. I am thinking longer term.

Chris
  • #6,125
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:09pm Dec 7, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
Anyone else ever noticed that in reading about the markets in the news there is very rarely any mention of any technical reasons why a market tops or bottoms where it does?...

Actually, I have a theory on this. When we get to an area that a technician would expect a meltdown or up...whatever....we are at a place where the market is leaning in one direction or another.

So when a shock comes, it's easier to push it over. If that makes any sense.....

But no, you are not imagining things. News people and most of Wall Street doesn't believe in TA it seems.

Chris
  • #6,126
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:22pm Dec 7, 2009 9:22pm
One I am looking at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,127
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:16pm Dec 7, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting clockwork71
To be completely honest, I am simply waiting for a few levels to buy. All of them are below here. It probably means buying gold next year, but so be it. I am thinking longer term.

Chris
I completely agree with you on this. Just have to keep telling myself, "Patience, patience young Grasshopper...." I am playing gold stocks rather than gold, but all the same..... I promise to resist the temptation to hop on an inverse gold ETF.

Some definite support at $24 on the BMY short, from about a year ago. Nice solid peak.
  • #6,128
  • Edited 12:28am Dec 8, 2009 12:16am | Edited 12:28am
I remember when the indices were falling last year the news were talking about support and possible places it might bottom out but I agree that there tends to be an aversion to technical analysis in the news. Maybe this is still a hangup from the fundies days.

As for why the markets seem to predict a fundamental announcement here's my theory. To some extent certain announcements are anticipated and when that is the case the market will tend to hang around and wait-and-see, causing a wind up in a currency until the announcement is made. The other reason is as Chris says, sometimes without anything to drive the markets traders have no particular bias so they just amble up and down until an unpredicted event occurs which kick-starts the currency. It's kinda like a cup of tea (well maybe not but here goes ) - a news item stirs the cuppa and it continues to rotate for some time. After a little while it loses momentum and settles down, until once again the spoon of news comes in and rotates, maybe in the opposite direction.

Then again, maybe I should be committed!

Quoting johnnyonspot
Anyone else ever noticed that in reading about the markets in the news there is very rarely any mention of any technical reasons why a market tops or bottoms where it does?...
  • #6,129
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:59am Dec 8, 2009 12:59am
Quoting johnnyonspot
Its almost like sometimes, the technical controls the fundamental, i.e., predicts the future in a way. Okay, I am ready to be committed now!
Yes, I frequently get the same feeling. From what I've learned here and on the J16 thread et al price action on the higher time frames is what guides me. I do think there is a danger to "curve fit" your thoughts, though, because these incidents do stand out (like coincidences) and our brains want to classify them.
Gone to a better place
  • #6,130
  • Dec 8, 2009 8:34am Dec 8, 2009 8:34am
See attached chart....if nothing else: This is starting to look like a trend line break, to be followed by consolidation. It could either be a hard break, or a bottom forming. Keep your eyes peeled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,131
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:00am Dec 8, 2009 10:00am
eurjpy took off just like i had expected........only problem is i was not in the trade as it did not make my usual 35% retracement according to my trading plan.....................SAD SAD...but atleast i followed my trading plan..

Quoting Danku
Looking forward to today's close..............2-Day PinBar forming on the above.....at swing high, 50%Fibs but jus below Resistance at 135.00..................remember the Box Trade......targeting 130.69 Area....minor support to me...........

What are your views guys????
  • #6,132
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:24am Dec 8, 2009 10:24am
Quoting Danku
eurjpy took off just like i had expected........only problem is i was not in the trade as it did not make my usual 35% retracement according to my trading plan.....................SAD SAD...but atleast i followed my trading plan..

Don't worry - another bus will be coming along shortly. They always do.

:-)
  • #6,133
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:19pm Dec 8, 2009 12:19pm
InfinitySL posted this chart as a potential short on the weekly - he hooked me up it appears.
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  • #6,134
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:28pm Dec 8, 2009 12:28pm
Here is the chart I posted yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BMY.png Size: 109 KB
  • #6,135
  • Edited 1:54pm Dec 8, 2009 12:43pm | Edited 1:54pm
Hi guys,

See how the daily pin bar just got taken out on a false signal? This again goes to show that the higher time frames rule.... I also do not really trust this short trade on GOLD even though I'm like 110 pips up so had to move SL to BE just to be on the safe side.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,136
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:44pm Dec 8, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
InfinitySL posted this chart as a potential short on the weekly - he hooked me up it appears.
Anytime - I was actually just queuing up my short order but got pulled into a meeting this afternoon. Perhaps an entry tomorrow might be in order so long as I'm not chasing it!
  • #6,137
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:05pm Dec 8, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Anytime - I was actually just queuing up my short order but got pulled into a meeting this afternoon. Perhaps an entry tomorrow might be in order so long as I'm not chasing it!
Right.....to be honest, it hasn't moved too much in my opinion. Perhaps you should be alright.
  • #6,138
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:07pm Dec 8, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Hi guys,

See how the daily pin bar just got taken out on a false signal? This again goes to show that the higher time frames rule.... I also do not really trust this short trade on GOLD even though I'm like 110 pips up so had to move SL to BE just to be on the safe side.

Attachment
Great post. My thought going into this was yes......it probably will go down, but it's counter trend, and let's be honest...yesterday had a wicked bounce up for a few hours. Markets like this tend to be erratic at best.

I fully agree with protecting yourself form loss here. I would certainly be at b/e myself if I were short gold.

Disclosure: I am waiting for longs based on a daily candle......(ideally)

Chris
  • #6,139
  • Dec 8, 2009 4:37pm Dec 8, 2009 4:37pm
DXY pin/doji was taken out....
  • #6,140
  • Dec 8, 2009 8:40pm Dec 8, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting Low
DXY pin/doji was taken out....
Yes. Looks like it will probably grind higher.
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