Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

welcome back
Long time didn't see u,Hope all fine, I see 2 of big player G/J here you guys need One more trader to make empire Malc

reality is is the market is weak anyway , this Dubai thing is just a shot across the bow. Think about it ... Dubai have not defaulted they are just mentioning that . Also how much exposure do American banks have to Dubai 15% .... nah got to be more than that , as one bank gets the debt and sell it on to another. I bet they are up to their necks in exposure to Dubai as they are greedy , BUT we will never know due to mark to market ruling being cancelled last year. Even if they have 20 billion debt and it goes into default and is worth 0 , they can still put it as 20 billion on their books for accounting purposes. This is how screwed up the banking sector is. Think banks are really making money ? think they are not holding billions in defaulted loans and housing inventory that they have not even put on the market yet. Think the Uk or europe is any better ?

Think of China and how much money has been lent by banks over the last 12 months , most of it to support the stock market , one more crisis where sse drops and all those loans are in default and the bank at a loss of trillions

The technical of the stock market over the last month are weak ..... hold it up till year end and then short the market for next year ... that is how the hedge funds are likely thinking .

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34039065/ a mere 33% compared to 21% last year ... yet banks are making money... bullshit ... bring back mark to market.

this from a news item ...Foreclosure filings were reported on 332,292 properties last month, assuming each mortgage was average 100 k (very low estimate) , $33,292,200,000 loss to banks and 332000 new properties on the market , on high side this could be 66 billion in one month . A lot of these properties may be held by the banks and may not be placed on the market as the flood of foreclosed houses would drive house prices lower.

add to that the 10 billion fdic are paying right now for bank closures ... the numbers are staggering

YET talk to the average person any where in the world .... they think the economy is recovering , they do not know anything of the things that are going on behind the scenes . CIT filed for chapter 11 ... not on the news , ambac filed for chapter 11 after being bailed out with billions of tarp money .... not on the news .

The crisis is far from over .... think 70 gj is out of the question ? Think again

AHA here he come malcolmb, Now the circle is done
here it's my weekly DJ chart, We reach 50% ,Why it is not falling yet ,Malc?
I don't get it ,But expecting drop anytime

Welcome back 148

mm...miss ur kebab lol

they could prop this thing up till q1 next year

for the first time 3 1/2 year bonds fell negative , that means that big players were willing to keep bonds and pay to keep them rather than move money into equities.

It is not a case of if the DJ is going to drop , rather when .....

one a weekly ew count wave 4 ends now or 11xxxx ... wave 5 end 6500 or lower

geppy going to 118 then 0 and the fibo extension goes all the way towards -55.38

on the upside we got 455 then 1140.43^2

i love everybody woooooohooooooooooo
jackie chan is striking back bitchessssssssssss
the market needs to start happenin over the weekend

on a serious note im watching news on tv here in lebanon and people all over the middle east are waiting for the dubai market to open tomorrow to see where stocks will be/are going
so ill keep you guys posted on the sentiment around here

Plan for GBP/JPY this week - target up to 145.95 area - weekly close should be between 145.30 - 145.80 - happy trading - this week, maybe I will recover sooner this month.

yen pairs flying, gonna be a big gap up by the looks of it. shorting opportunity for closure of the gap? gj at 144.20 at the moment and still rising!!

im guessing gap close then proceed back up to that area? afaik the gaps usually close before resuming in the same direction.

I am happy for yen up ...just to stay like that till 5pm ET at least...

144,10 current price GJ .....look like you got your wish for now

i would remain cautious for now .. that dubai news could have been thrown out there for discount of yen pairs and US stock market

I am waiting till tokyo comes on line later . If there is BOJ intervenetion we could see a 600 pip move up today before a 2000 pip drop. I have seen this once before in 2007 when things started getting very volatile. Stops have to be managed really well as does % risk on account. In this crazy volatile time stops have to be a little bigger and i am taking my risk per trade down to .5% only ( typically 2.5%)

The volatility we have right does indicate a top is very close ( max volatility happens at tops and bottoms of markets)

there is clearly a big support at 139 area.
volatility is high right now; we haven't seen such activity over the weekend for quite some time. also, take a look at this daily chart - huge volumes for the last few days.
bounce from support? effort to break through resistance? time will tell.
for now, if 139 is not broken, then 148.20 area is next to be tested (yearly PVP... ). but keep in mind that we are BELOW yearly PVP

Hello Scrat

How do you set up your Market profile indicator...I think I have that indicator from VSA thread (TwoBuckChuck)...I can get what you have on chart..make screen shot of setup?

thank you

scrat

daily volumes on mt4 can be all over the place. Esignal does not even doe daily daily volumes.

Best i can do is look at 12 hour chart ...

they show that thursday friday volumes last week were high , of note is that there was high stopping volume 139 and then on a test 140 on the 60 min

now we have this odd gap to 144 which happens to be resistance on daily charts

golden.... how 161 fe rules work..
thanks piter. i owe you on this bro.

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it “stands behind” the country’s local and foreign banks, which face losses from Dubai World’s possible default, and offered them access to more money under a new facility.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...T4TXyAw8&pos=1

Maybe this news over the weekend explains the GJ rally.

UAE central bank sets up liquidity fund for banks in emirates

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - The central bank of the United Arab Emirates said it would provide a special fund to back local and international banks operating in the UAE, media reports said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uae...nks-2009-11-29

Another opportunity to sell on a rally

PA looks to PB back to the daily TL 144 zone and may consolidate in the area or continue back to the overall daily RED TL 148 zone before another drop..

The dubai weekend news and black friday retail sales will hype up the GJ rally. This is another opportunity to short at a higher position before the end of the week when the unemployment news come out on friday. Kaboom


At the moment the 139 as some seniors members pointed out will be a strong support to break.


Enjoy the retracement!!

IMHO

ccc....