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  • #160,181
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:41am Nov 10, 2009 2:41am
next beast hunting
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  • #160,182
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:44am Nov 10, 2009 2:44am
Break...Break...Breaker..Break...C'mon toshi!

Is you about ready to short XAU for a few 1,000 pips?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160,183
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:48am Nov 10, 2009 2:48am
Quoting cannarek
today market is not easy. I am in, selling
look at the thread name, it's euro/usd pair!
  • #160,184
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:51am Nov 10, 2009 2:51am
Quoting fxswing
We gotta get to 5060, we gotta get to 5060, we gotta get to 5060!!!

Love that mantra

Repeat after me bulls: We gotta get...
5070
  • #160,185
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:53am Nov 10, 2009 2:53am
Quoting rainhard
look at the thread name, it's euro/usd pair!
read posts - there are many not connected with EU. but thanks for help
  • #160,186
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:54am Nov 10, 2009 2:54am
Quoting christian
What a boring trading today.

When trading EURUSD, why not taking a look at USDCHF.
When UC makes a touch down at 0.95, so EURUSD might be turn up.
I'll hope we see this this week yet.
yes, I do it always - watch these two pairs together
  • #160,187
  • Nov 10, 2009 2:57am Nov 10, 2009 2:57am
Quoting Chicky
Don't know, but eur/usd is shorting many traders.
Guys, lot of big guys selling eurousd around 5020-5030 area..
ABCD..
  • #160,188
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:00am Nov 10, 2009 3:00am
Quoting majorusa
I am long at 1.49880. SL 1.49583. 1st target 1.50185. Reason. IB at 8.00 H1 candle.
1st target hit. Closed 1/2 position. SL moved to BE. Free trade now.
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #160,189
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:01am Nov 10, 2009 3:01am
Quoting The Fool
Not at all, my good man. I look at the stats from myfxbook every weekend. Average winner/avg. loser, # of longs & # of shorts, longs won, shorts won, etc, etc. Last week for instance, there were 173 trades, avg winner 1.8 pips, avg loser 3 pips, 73% winners, account increase 13.4%. I have been at around 70-80% winners since I began. For some reason ( do you know why? ) I am always 2:1 short:long.

The ZEW was an easy 15 pip winner, played short right off 1.5. Easy winners and quick, too, that's all I need.
Holy Toledo, Fool !

You're well on your way to becoming a pro scalper.

Why are you 2:1 short vs long ? Here's why:
In a no-sum game (or one that is close to it)
it can not be said more money is made on the long side
or more money is made on the short side. It's a wash.

But, the fastest money is often made on the short side of markets.
Markets drop faster than they go up. I consider this a kind of market gravity.

US dollar outright long/short has some of it's own exceptions to this guideline
because many instruments are often quoted/denominated in USD,
even when negotiated by a non-USD counterparties, so sometimes
the outright Dollar will fall like feathers instead of bricks.

In a world where people have been exposed to the idea that markets
are bought, then they go up, then you sell - chronic bulls syndrome,
the domain of short sellers is still less populated in the world of finance.

It's taken all year just about for the equity mkts to crawl back up here.
If a major fall was to occur, one that would erase all the YTD gains,
it could be over and done with in a matter of days, not months.
just one example.

That is why I remain an eternal pessimist - the glass will never be full.

And when scalping I often favor short setups when possible, even on retracements
as they are quick, sharp and right to the point. This is scalp-related only.
Not to be confused with entering and holding a position that is counter to the overall trend.
Doing that can eat your lunch.

But that's great Fool ! If you were to trade that much volume on futures,
you could get a pretty good rate with a number of FCMs.

Keep banking those pips !
  • #160,190
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:02am Nov 10, 2009 3:02am
Quoting sreeprakash
Guys, lot of big guys selling eurousd around 5020-5030 area..
Hi just wondering where can we see this data/rumors? FXdaily?
  • #160,191
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:12am Nov 10, 2009 3:12am
Quoting toshi
.

Why are you 2:1 short vs long ? Here's why:

....the fastest money is often made on the short side of markets.
Amen, Brother toshi. Fast money is good money.

Now...lets drop like a rock off this .5020 double top.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160,192
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:12am Nov 10, 2009 3:12am
Quoting sreeprakash
Guys, lot of big guys selling eurousd around 5020-5030 area..
No. If the big guys (and many of them) would sell there we would see a quick drop and not a noisy 10-20 pips move.
  • #160,193
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:12am Nov 10, 2009 3:12am
Quoting toshi
Holy Toledo, Fool !

You're well on your way to becoming a pro scalper.

Why are you 2:1 short vs long ? Here's why:
In a no-sum game (or one that is close to it)
it can not be said more money is made on the long side
or more money is made on the short side. It's a wash.

But, the fastest money is often made on the short side of markets.
Markets drop faster than they go up. I consider this a kind of market gravity.

US dollar outright long/short has some of it's own exceptions to this guideline
because many instruments are often...
You also have to mention that charts are drawn according to BID which means it's much easier and profitable to scalp short than long because ASK levels are a ghosts. If charts were drawn according to last transaction quote (as they should be) it would be a different story maybe.
  • #160,194
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:14am Nov 10, 2009 3:14am
Quoting Xaron
No. If the big guys (and many of them) would sell there we would see a quick drop and not a noisy 10-20 pips move.
Aren't you forgetting pendin sell limit orders? Why do you think EU is stuck here for 24 hrs? In this case it's not market sell. Just huge supply of euros.
  • #160,195
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:17am Nov 10, 2009 3:17am
If the trendline will hold then retest of the 1.5018.
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If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #160,196
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:19am Nov 10, 2009 3:19am
Quoting The Fool
Break...Break...Breaker..Break...C'mon toshi!

Is you about ready to short XAU for a few 1,000 pips?
Options. Options only !

I have 1080, 1060 and 1040 puts.

These wild sonabitches could run this market up to 1200 and then down to 1000,
all with out ever putting down the crack pipe. I can't see taking an outright short
only because the risk is just over the top. Can't sell calls because again,
there's almost a mania developing in gold.

Even though the premiums are a little fat, it beats getting run over.
If one finds the premiums just too much to bear, another approach
would be to buy some at the money puts and write the 1050s or the 1025's away
to reduce the cost somewhat.

That way you could potentially lock in $50 to $75/ounce if we get a good plunge.

Potential is therefore limited but the risks are smaller and the the premiums collected
reduce the net cost of the strategy to a litttle bit of nothing,

Considering just buying more puts or else I may implement a butterfly, legging in as we push lower.
We'll see how quick the pullback forms. That's how I'm approching it, while we hover right at $1100

Oh yea, almost forgot. EURO/USD: I think that since this senario will weigh on the AUD,
to some extent euro will get some pressure too, just not as much as some expect.
  • #160,197
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:28am Nov 10, 2009 3:28am
Quoting toshi

These wild sonabitches could run this market up to 1200 and then down to 1000,
all with out ever putting down the crack pipe.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160,198
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:30am Nov 10, 2009 3:30am
Quoting toshi
Options. Options only !

I have 1080, 1060 and 1040 puts.

These wild sonabitches could run this market up to 1200 and then down to 1000,
all with out ever putting down the crack pipe. I can't see taking an outright short
only because the risk is just over the top. Can't sell calls because again,
there's almost a mania developing in gold.

Even though the premiums are a little fat, it beats getting run over.
If one finds the premiums just too much to bear, another approach
would be to buy some at the money puts and write the 1050s or the 1025's...

Gold is an extremely speculative thing dead on time.
I think the great investors will set us on the wrong track. Everybody believes now, that a returning point will coming. That way big players will make us dumb.
Attention, I think when Gold falls down, so only for short time, so that traders can back the wrong horse, and then prices will jump up.
A likely story? Cognitive psychology? ...or all rubbish?
We'll see next time.
  • #160,199
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:37am Nov 10, 2009 3:37am
Quoting TheFisherman
You also have to mention that charts are drawn according to BID which means it's much easier and profitable to scalp short than long because ASK levels are a ghosts. If charts were drawn according to last transaction quote (as they should be) it would be a different story maybe.
That is a valid consideration, since I've been filled selling into or during spikes much better
than just hitting a bid when mkt is sitting at relative calm. My ASK was the nearest offer,
even though not indicative of the current BID at the time.

I agree with you.
  • #160,200
  • Nov 10, 2009 3:38am Nov 10, 2009 3:38am
EURUSD, Weekly

Coming up to 1.5400... or will EURUSD play a turning circle?
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