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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #175,001
  • Oct 10, 2009 9:50pm Oct 10, 2009 9:50pm
I think US will likely consider to cut rate..Reason is to boost dollar..
  • #175,002
  • Oct 10, 2009 10:26pm Oct 10, 2009 10:26pm
Quoting forex888
I think US will likely consider to cut rate..Reason is to boost dollar..
you meant raise rate to boost dollar?
  • #175,003
  • Oct 11, 2009 4:32am Oct 11, 2009 4:32am
Quoting ams

Thankful enough to you for my first vouch and Nav today for generosity.




Thanks
ams

generosity had not part in me giving u a vouche..u simply deserve it for yur fundamental reasoning and contribution to thread..i just wish u did it more!..theres a lot to be learnt from u my friend
  • #175,004
  • Oct 11, 2009 5:57am Oct 11, 2009 5:57am
Quoting forexpt
Oh sorry for my english.
i am talk about your sentiment index source. i would like study it for some weeks.
Thanks a lot
Type in Google WEB search: "GBPUSD SSI Ratio October 9"

Closest I found for October 8 Check it out:

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/091008/36/293ed.html

Or in Google News: "GBPUSD SSI Ratio"

found the same thing

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...010678714.html

If anyone have different sources for that SSI, please post, - thank you.


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  • #175,005
  • Oct 11, 2009 5:58am Oct 11, 2009 5:58am
Quoting malcolmb14
target 1.5335 ..sell all rallies till we get there

Attachment
I am inclined to agree with that direction. The weekly chart has closed underneath the gann (dotted magenta line) , broken through the weekly 50 ema and also price failed to close above the 50 fib.

On the fortnightly (2 weeks) chart, the candlestick pattern I see is a very high probability trend continuation pattern. If I am right with this, then the highest we will see for this week is 1.6120. Almost every candlestick requires a wick and I believe the wick (retrace?) is now completed. By this analysis I would expect the low of this candlestick to be about 1.5320.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1week.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2week.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #175,006
  • Oct 11, 2009 7:50am Oct 11, 2009 7:50am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Type in Google WEB search: "GBPUSD SSI Ratio October 9"

Closest I found for October 8 Check it out:

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/091008/36/293ed.html

Or in Google News: "GBPUSD SSI Ratio"

found the same thing

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...010678714.html

If anyone have different sources for that SSI, please post, - thank you.


Yes
Thank you so much!

I know this...and for this i want see if they are walking together.
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
  • #175,007
  • Oct 11, 2009 8:03am Oct 11, 2009 8:03am
Another thing to consider, GBP COT report is very bullish,

Shorts are too crowded at -62,106.00, that's extreme oversold

Look GBP weekly COT Great site you can check it out (http://www.timingcharts.com)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCOT.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #175,008
  • Oct 11, 2009 8:06am Oct 11, 2009 8:06am
Look for 2 years.. Highest Shorts level in 2 years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCOT2 years.png Size: 51 KB
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  • #175,009
  • Oct 11, 2009 10:29am Oct 11, 2009 10:29am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Look for 2 years.. Highest Shorts level in 2 years.

bro are u long right now?
yo T check your email bro..i sent it ..
  • #175,010
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:00am Oct 11, 2009 11:00am
Quoting nAVIN2007
bro are u long right now?
yo T check your email bro..i sent it ..
Good day to you,

Busy downloading - thank you.

Yip, as mentioned... I do have a small long position in place right now. Avg price @ 1.5856. Hoping for a small retrace to get back on the southbound.

Regards
  • #175,011
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:04am Oct 11, 2009 11:04am
Quoting nAVIN2007
bro are u long right now?
Kind of, yes.. I'm averaging down from some point..
If it goes lower, I'll buy more, till it reverses.
Yes, it could take long, but I also hedging against YEN.
So, if one pair goes down, then Other goes up, ones I reach desirable
profit target in any of those pairs, I'll take profit and place another
bet according to the situation. Since mid term EU pair is neutral or
bullish, I don't see how Cable can drop to 1.5300 unless EU drop to like
1.44. And that's only possible, if DOW drops like a rock.
And it that case I rather Long than Short.

In other words if you Bearish (SHORT) on DOW, then short EU/GU..
Dollar not going to rise, while DOW is rising, cause they are moving against each other.
And that's my bet.
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  • #175,012
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:28am Oct 11, 2009 11:28am
Here is the chart to support my theory

EURUSD vs DOW
Attached Image
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  • #175,013
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:35am Oct 11, 2009 11:35am
Another chart same picture Cable vs DOW 3-years
Attached Image
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  • #175,014
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:55am Oct 11, 2009 11:55am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Another chart same picture Cable vs DOW 3-years
Firstly, nice analysis. Keep it up...

However, the correlation between sterling and the performance of risk assets has not been at all strong in recent months, something to which this chart illustrates very clearly.

In fact, it is difficult to view sterling as a risk asset, in the same mould as equities, commodities or EM assets, when the yield is non-existent and will likely be that way for some time to come, coupled with the fact that the growth prospects for the UK economy appear to be the weakest out of all the developed economies, as does the overall fiscal position, not to mention the possibility of a further extension to the QE programme (further debasing of the currency) come the release of the quarterly inflation report in November.

The picture for the dollar is also equally grim, no doubt there, with the added risk of the greenback losing its role as the pre-eminent global reserve currency - something which is already happening, albeit at a slower pace than implied by recent market moves.

As traders, however, all we can do is position ourselves with the likely sentiment of the market, trading the associated ebbs and flows. My near-term bias for cable was switched to short on Friday, following the break, and close below, the ascending trendline.

Good luck.
  • #175,015
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:56am Oct 11, 2009 11:56am
salam hi all

whats going on room
  • #175,016
  • Oct 11, 2009 11:57am Oct 11, 2009 11:57am
Chart update guys.

I normally cannot upload charts as my internet explorers seizes up but it seems to have worked this time.

Anyway as you can see GU is ranging in the 1.61-1.58 areas. The RSI is overbought and I cannot see this breaking through the 1.58 support unless it retraces first.

What do you guys think?

Attached Thumbnailshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1255286855
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  • #175,017
  • Oct 11, 2009 12:05pm Oct 11, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting Ifty
Chart update guys.

I normally cannot upload charts as my internet explorers seizes up but it seems to have worked this time.
Try Opera instead of IE. A lot less garbage, not a total resource hound. Just go to the dotcom and run download. As a wireless tech, I find folks that have issues with IE and Firefox have a pretty good success rate with it.

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  • #175,018
  • Oct 11, 2009 12:06pm Oct 11, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting gammase1
Firstly, nice analysis. Keep it up...
However, the correlation between sterling and the performance of risk assets has not been at all strong in recent months, something to which this chart illustrates very clearly.
Good luck.
Thanks, yes, Actually about 68% of the large traders also agree with your view.

I'll see how it goes, Monday could be also low volume day,

as Columbus Day in the US. Possible wild swings on the low vol.?

who knows, - we'll see.
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  • #175,019
  • Oct 11, 2009 12:08pm Oct 11, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Thanks, yes, Actually about 68% of the large traders also agree with your view.

I'll see how it goes, Monday could be also low volume day,

as Columbus Day in the US. Possible wild swings on the low vol.?

who knows, - we'll see.
Yep, who really knows....

Tomorrow could indeed see volatile swings, with attempts to move the market in low volume trading.
  • #175,020
  • Oct 11, 2009 12:17pm Oct 11, 2009 12:17pm
here are the trading plan to follow monday in EUR/USD

target from opening price - sell 1,4715-20: target to buy again - 1,4635 (see chart, here will be a false break)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonday.jpg Size: 88 KB
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