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4H Banker Buster

  • #101
  • Edited 8:08pm Oct 7, 2009 1:11pm | Edited 8:08pm
Removed results due to method type, holds no merit, Crude Method.
  • #102
  • Oct 7, 2009 5:38pm Oct 7, 2009 5:38pm
What are your results for this week?
  • #103
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:26pm Oct 7, 2009 6:26pm
Why not go in with one position once TP1 is hit the trend is confirmed move stop on first to break even and take another trade when TP2 hit same again that way you are increasing your comitment as the trend strengthens rather than reducing as the trend gets stronger
  • #104
  • Oct 7, 2009 6:56pm Oct 7, 2009 6:56pm
Quoting wrenski
What are your results for this week?
I'm personally not trading this week, because of the consolidation I deducted due to the lower highs and higher lows of the last few weeks.

I've stated this before that we are currently at a Super S&R zone, and I'm personally expecting a heavy level of consolidation over the next week or two, maybe 3. I'm personally spending my time right now optimizing the system because currently, the market wouldn't favor any system.
  • #105
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:17pm Oct 7, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting Pharoah
Our trade was triggered at 144.01, stoploss set to 143.60.

Was this just a "what if" trade?
  • #106
  • Oct 7, 2009 7:45pm Oct 7, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting wrenski
Was this just a "what if" trade?
No, that was a actual trade, the stoploss I posted was wrong. Got stopped out at 143.30. So I guess that's this weeks trades so far. This S&R zone honestly scares me for placing trades... I've never experienced a S&R zone with this much power before... this is a huge one, and has been in existence since sometime before 1994.

I've managed to get the year of 2009 to be a profitable year at $18,636.96 profit from a $10,000 account with a drawdown factor of 25.92% Maximal, and 25.92% Relative.

Here are the exact results. Tick by tick, 90% model quality.

Bars in test 2174
Ticks modelled 12968607
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 1
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 18636.96
Gross profit 37116.57
Gross loss -18479.61
Profit factor 2.01
Expected payoff 204.80
Absolute drawdown 201.53
Maximal drawdown 6601.36 (25.92%)
Relative drawdown 25.92% (6601.36)
Total trades 91
Short positions (won %) 24 (66.67%)
Long positions (won %) 67 (22.39%)
Profit trades (% of total) 31 (34.07%)
Loss trades (% of total) 60 (65.93%)
Largest
profit trade 2899.00
loss trade -1539.54
Average
profit trade 1197.31
loss trade -307.99
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 4 (4668.40)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 10 (-1512.00)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 4668.40 (4)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -3446.79 (8)
Average
consecutive wins 2
consecutive losses 4

For some reason, the EA is not updating the box properly, and is also opening multiple trades within the same bar (this should not happen, EVER), Also, the stoploss follows the MA's exactly.. meaning in the MA retraces back toward BE, so does the Stoploss... This should also never happen.

I expect that these repairs to the EA will allow for a much larger profit factor, with reduced drawdown. As most of that drawdown is being caused by the multiple trades being opened and stopped out within the same bar. If a trade get closed out, a new box forms when the BAR has forming, and the box is then calculated from the close using the regular +/- from bar close rule.

I would like to note that our progress is moving along very nicely, we are managing to turn loosing years into profitable ones.
  • #107
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:17pm Oct 7, 2009 9:17pm
To Pharoah or PiPsAddict . Was thinking about box size from a Ranging and Trending market...... lets say that the box size is 50 on both ends no matter what the market conditions are .... we don't know yet , it's the start of the week right ...then we get stopped out on both ends of the trade , from using 50 .... would it be logical to increase box sise to 75 on both ends at that point then wait for a break out ..? instead of starting the week out with a box size of 70 on both ends and getting stopped out ..... In my head i see a lesser draw-down to start the week, but at the same time a greater potential for better gain's ... hard for me to explain this in words .... the 50 and 70 are from previous posts , the 75 is mine , random # from my head ... but i think you get the idea .... buffalopip...
  • #108
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:38pm Oct 7, 2009 9:38pm
Quoting buffalopip
To Pharoah or PiPsAddict ....
We're actually doing tests on a 140 pip box size (70 pips in either side of close)

So far this is yielding the best results from 40 pips on either side to 80 pips on either side. We are currently at a profit of $80,000 from $10,000 over 3 years with our tests using tick by tick method to produce highest possible model quality.

We are having problems with the box update routine, and also having problems with how shorts get handled by the Smartstop, this is of course limiting the potential of this system. And it also opens multiple trades within the same bar, if the SL and entry point get hit. This is really limiting our testing abilities. This is why thus far backtests have been done using 1 trade per week.

Regardless of those facts, this system is producing an insane amount of ROE and is expected to go the distance.
  • #109
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:54pm Oct 7, 2009 9:54pm
An idea is an idea , and can sometimes turn my face red.... lol......never hurts to ask ..... i have zero ability for EA programming and what it involves .... just the same , i had to ask , because you never know , right .... thank you for your answer and for replying the other night to my "Q".... in my down time i'll let my mind wander and come up with more questions ... lol....buffalopip.....
  • #110
  • Oct 7, 2009 9:56pm Oct 7, 2009 9:56pm
Pharoah . . . let me summarize what I think you've told me in answering my questions. Then, you can tell me if that's what you actually told me.

1. You're using the close of the first 4H candle to determine trade entries . . . 70 pips above for a Long and 70 pips below for a Short, with nothing added for the spread on the Long side.

2. In regard to the SL that you were using in back testing, I'm a bit fuzzy on that point. Here's what you said in Post 76 . . . "All trades are handled by the SmartStop system, while it can be in use. If the MA was below the price when trade was entered, a trailing stop of I believe 75 pips was applied, and set to trail the MA once it crossed it."

What does this phrase mean . . . "If the MA was below the price when trade was entered . . ."

When you say the "trade was entered", are you referring to when the trade actually opens or when the trade is input into the Trade Terminal (as a future trade)?

And, what about this part . . . "a trailing stop of I believe 75 pips was applied, and set to trail the MA once it crossed it."

At what point does the Smart Stop take over from the Trailing Stop?

3. The first Target Price is 260 pips.

Is this the point at which you're closing half the trade?

If I understand correctly, with the Smart Stop system, there are no additional TP's, correct? The trade either runs until the end of the week or the Smart Stop ends the trade, right?

Thanks . . . I'll try to think of some more questions for you on the other thread now so I can keep you hopping again.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #111
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:04pm Oct 7, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting yen44x
Pharoah . . . let me summarize what I think you've told me in answering my questions. Then, you can tell me if that's what you actually told me.
1. You're using the close of the first 4H candle to determine trade entries . . . 70 pips above for a Long and 70 pips below for a Short, with nothing added for the spread on the Long side.

This is correct. There are spreads either way you trade, long or short, the Bid will never be above the Ask, and the Ask will never be below the low. Thus there will always be a spread.

2. In regard to the SL that you were using in back testing, I'm a bit fuzzy on that point. Here's what you said in Post 76 . . . "All trades are handled by the SmartStop system, while it can be in use. If the MA was below the price when trade was entered, a trailing stop of I believe 75 pips was applied, and set to trail the MA once it crossed it."

What does this phrase mean . . . "If the MA was below the price when trade was entered . . ."

When you say the "trade was entered", are you referring to when the trade actually opens or when the trade is input into the Trade Terminal (as a future trade)?

And, what about this part . . . "a trailing stop of I believe 75 pips was applied, and set to trail the MA once it crossed it."

At what point does the Smart Stop take over from the Trailing Stop?

3. The first Target Price is 260 pips. Currently in testing.

Is this the point at which you're closing half the trade?

If I understand correctly, with the Smart Stop system, there are no additional TP's, correct? The trade either runs until the end of the week or the Smart Stop ends the trade, right?
Yes, you are correct.

Thanks . . . I'll try to think of some more questions for you on the other thread now so I can keep you hopping again.

Thanks yen for answering your own questions... read the bold, this is the answers to the questons
  • #112
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:10pm Oct 7, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting Pharoah
This is correct. There are spreads either way you trade, long or short, the Bid will never be above the Ask, and the Ask will never be below the low. Thus there will always be a spread.

and set to trail the MA once it crossed it."

Thanks yen for answering your own questions... read the bold, this is the answers to the questons
I knew I could do it! But, that's almost cheating on your part . . . I made it too easy for you.

It's true that there are spread either way, but the price noted on charts is always the Sell price. Therefore, that's why it's common to add the spread to the Buy side if going Long.

The phrase "set to trail the Ma once it crossed it" . . . are you referring to the Smart Stop at that point?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #113
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:17pm Oct 7, 2009 10:17pm
Quoting yen44x
I knew I could do it! But, that's almost cheating on your part . . . I made it too easy for you.

It's true that there are spread either way, but the price noted on charts is always the Sell price. Therefore, that's why it's common to add the spread to the Buy side if going Long.

The phrase "set to trail the Ma once it crossed it" . . . are you referring to the Smart Stop at that point?
Yes.

And it's true, but I'm wondering if it really matters, I tend to have both lines showing on my chart at the same time, gives me a better view of the trade at hand.

If you don't include both on your chart, consider spread included with the +pip to form the box.
  • #114
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:20pm Oct 7, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting Pharoah
Yes. And it's true, but I'm wondering if it really matters, I tend to have both lines showing on my chart at the same time, gives me a better view of the trade at hand. If you don't include both on your chart, consider spread included with the +pip to form the box.
Thanks, my friend . . . you're a patient man with all my questions. Believe it or not, I can't think of even one more question for you . . . for now.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #115
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:25pm Oct 7, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting yen44x
Thanks, my friend . . . you're a patient man with all my questions. Believe it or not, I can't think of even one more question for you . . . for now.
  • #116
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:42pm Oct 7, 2009 10:42pm
Just saw on the backtest something... This image will help explain EXACTLY what this system does... The EA isn't working well enough to do this all of the time unfortunately, need to get an update on it.

I think you'll be VERY impressed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example.jpg Size: 61 KB


I'm not 100% sure (actually, yes I am) but this looks like $$$$$$$ in the bank to me... BTW

Start date on this test. 2006.12.02
Current point in test. 2007.10.08

Starting Balance: $10,000
Current Balance: $31,953

Letting this test run until current, can't wait to see these results.
  • #117
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:52pm Oct 7, 2009 10:52pm
Hello Pharoah,

Very nice results. Do you plan on making the ea available sometime to FF members or to people outside of FF in any capacity?

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting Pharoah
Just saw on the backtest something... This image will help explain EXACTLY what this system does... The EA isn't working well enough to do this all of the time unfortunately, need to get an update on it.

I think you'll be VERY impressed.

Attachment

I'm not 100% sure (actually, yes I am) but this looks like $$$$$$$ in the bank to me... BTW

Start date on this test. 2006.12.02
Current point in test. 2007.10.08

Starting Balance: $10,000
Current Balance: $31,953

Letting this test run until current, can't wait to see these results....
  • #118
  • Oct 7, 2009 10:59pm Oct 7, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting azjeff
Hello Pharoah,

Very nice results. Do you plan on making the ea available sometime to FF members or to people outside of FF in any capacity?

Regards,
Jeff
This EA will be made freely but in a discretionary manner. The potential of this system is bound to draw huge attention to rip offs and scam artist's. Thus I do not want to make it "publicly available".

I'm working on trying to devise an easier method than the whole manual verification thing, to allow members of FF that have contributed, kind of like the hole "Voucher" system combined with "Buddy List". This will help make it so the system stays within the hands of responsible, respectful FF members.

But yes, this system is FF Exclusive. One of my requests was it not evn be posted on any other forum at all... This holds true for all of my systems.
  • #119
  • Oct 7, 2009 11:12pm Oct 7, 2009 11:12pm
Quoting Pharoah
I'm working on trying to devise an easier method than the whole manual verification thing, to allow members of FF that have contributed, kind of like the hole "Voucher" system combined with "Buddy List". This will help make it so the system stays within the hands of responsible, respectful FF members.
I'd be glad to vouch for Jeff. After all, he endured me on the OzFX thread . . . that's got to be worth something. Seriously, if you haven't crossed paths with him before, he's a good trader and a good guy.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #120
  • Oct 7, 2009 11:18pm Oct 7, 2009 11:18pm
Quoting yen44x
I'd be glad to vouch for Jeff. After all, he endured me on the OzFX thread . . . that's got to be worth something. Seriously, if you haven't crossed paths with him before, he's a good trader and a good guy.
Ok, well, when the EA is ready (still got a bit to go yet) we'll cross that bridge.

All I know is that this EA is going to be special, as you can see in the image. For me to be careless with it would be a very stupid move on my part.
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