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Silent Service Method

  • #5,261
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:43pm Oct 1, 2009 7:43pm
The most obvious set up of the day......tomorrow is NFP though. I shorted the 4 hour bar though.....so I am in it.
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  • #5,262
  • Oct 1, 2009 9:02pm Oct 1, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting clockwork71
The most obvious set up of the day......tomorrow is NFP though. I shorted the 4 hour bar though.....so I am in it.
very nice continuation of the trend it seems, nice trade what sort of profit target are you looking at?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #5,263
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:49am Oct 2, 2009 12:49am
Nice one chris.....

Just a thought and kinder observation that has been on my mind for sometime. For the newbies please do not follow what i am saying or asking, i am just try to get Chris's view................

Your gbpchf short signals....do you think this advance signal (before news) can lead one to a bais for the market when the news is out...........i have on a number of occasions observed this with pairs that have USD or USD correlation in them........obviously these signals have to be on the larger TF.....like Daily................just wondering.................

I would not be surprised after NFP, that this continues to head down.......................

Quoting clockwork71
The most obvious set up of the day......tomorrow is NFP though. I shorted the 4 hour bar though.....so I am in it.
  • #5,264
  • Oct 2, 2009 1:53am Oct 2, 2009 1:53am
well if you believe Goldman Sachs have inside knowledge then it looks as though the signals we have been seeing may prove correct...

http://news.forexdistrict.com/2009/t...000-jobs-lost/
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #5,265
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:56am Oct 2, 2009 2:56am
Quoting whitegoodman
very nice continuation of the trend it seems, nice trade what sort of profit target are you looking at?
O a, tjomlomg ot ,oght test the recent lows again....
  • #5,266
  • Oct 2, 2009 2:58am Oct 2, 2009 2:58am
Quoting Danku
Nice one chris.....

Just a thought and kinder observation that has been on my mind for sometime....

Yes, I think that's a fair statement to be honest, and it's something I have seen as well. If you think about it, it does make sense. If the people are already leaning in one direction - it takes less force to push them into continuation, to eventually fall over.
  • #5,267
  • Oct 2, 2009 3:26am Oct 2, 2009 3:26am
Quoting clockwork71
O a, tjomlomg ot ,oght test the recent lows again....
Baxter you know I dont speak Spanish, in English please
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #5,268
  • Oct 2, 2009 5:04am Oct 2, 2009 5:04am
Have I missed something longing the daily pin on eurjpy of 4 days ago (waited for the pin to be broken)?
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  • #5,269
  • Oct 2, 2009 6:29am Oct 2, 2009 6:29am
Same thing happened.....Chris, picked my 145 pips and am good for the weekend...............

The daily PB did it for me just the GBPCHF earlier in the week.

Nice weekend all...............

Quoting clockwork71
Yes, I think that's a fair statement to be honest, and it's something I have seen as well. If you think about it, it does make sense. If the people are already leaning in one direction - it takes less force to push them into continuation, to eventually fall over.
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  • #5,270
  • Oct 2, 2009 11:51am Oct 2, 2009 11:51am
Quoting ttteee
Have I missed something longing the daily pin on eurjpy of 4 days ago (waited for the pin to be broken)?

Are you asking if you should have - or if you did go long, and don't understand why you had a loss?
  • #5,271
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm Oct 2, 2009 12:07pm
i've posted these trades at Chris' webpage earlier like live calls..I think it was a good example of importance of re-assessing the market...
First trade was a long trade upon a good shape pinbar off the 61.8 ret of the bullish move..
But when it found resistance at weekly pivot level at 1.66oo and made a pinbar i moved my stop to 10 pips below of the pinbar.Following day made an inside bar but my stop not triggered but this time i also put my sell order (20 pips below pinbar) due to even stronger setup with that inside bar which was also a pinbar shape..So that was my second trade which i'm still in..If we break that 1.6200 level i'll be moving stop to break even and also i'm paying close attention to where price is now..
However If i see some price action at the ret.of the small up move (on 4hr) then i'd be thinking about to secure my trade..
Have a nice weekend all...
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  • #5,272
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:11pm Oct 2, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
Are you asking if you should have - or if you did go long, and don't understand why you had a loss?
because I've gone long and the trade failed
  • #5,273
  • Oct 2, 2009 12:43pm Oct 2, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting ttteee
because I've gone long and the trade failed
Personally, I took the gbp/jpy because I liked the shape of the pin better, but really, none of us know how any of it will turn out once we're in. gbp/chf is a good example of a fantastic bullish daily pin that was met 2 days later by two more conflicting pins.

Then there's NFP, worse than projections by 100K and the US stock markets will likely end the day flat.

It's almost sensless.

All we can do is identify high probability setups, and put our money where our mouth is.

After that it's out of our hands.
  • #5,274
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:26pm Oct 2, 2009 4:26pm
Thoughts on today.


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  • #5,275
  • Oct 2, 2009 4:31pm Oct 2, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting ttteee
because I've gone long and the trade failed
I don't think it cleared that pin by enough personally.....not at such an important point. BUT....this is one of those that could have gone either way really.....

Sometimes, it just happens.
  • #5,276
  • Edited 8:25pm Oct 2, 2009 8:22pm | Edited 8:25pm
I had my own thoughts about NFP today, which is one of the reasons I brought it up, and they may be a result of my inexperience, but I'll let you decide.

People who have been investing and trading for decades lost money when the bubble burst in 2007. People who knew bear markets and bull markets, people who should've seen it coming, and one of the reasons I believe, is because in 2007 the US economy more or less completely decoupled form it's fundamental underpinnings. Sales, earnings, PE ratios, whatever people had been relying for most of their careers failed, and in light of those failures, they couldn't trust their charts either.

A lot of those people lost a lot of money.

Now, here we trading the charts, working on the assumption that all the fundamental data is baked-in so to say, and hence it doesn't serve us from a practical standpoint to get too caught-up in fundamentals, but to me the truth is, fundamentals don't matter because todays' market valuations in no way represent any underlying strength or weaknesses in the US economy. They are a product of managed perception.

Whitegoodman has mentioned more than once that he suspects a larger shift in major markets will eventually take place, a re-orientation of sorts, and weather or not we suspect the same things, I'll leave him to answer, but my opinion is that US market valuations cannot sustain dow 10K, 14K, or any other double digit figure without an honest-to-god recovery, jobs and all, or caustic levels of inflation to ameliorate the differences between actual value and nominal value.

So what does this have to do with today's NFP? Simply put, todays news release gave us the patented NFP spike, guaranteed to close scalpers in either direction, and then......no "better than expected" rally..... no "holy s**t this is bad" plunge, it's as if the market just shrugged.
Which tells me that when data significantly worse than expected makes little real impact, that fundamentals are still largely irrelevant.

What does this mean to my trading? Very little in all honesty, but if so many intelligent, experienced players got their collective asses handed to them when the disconnect occurred, I should remain vigilant for the day when reality and market valuations find each other again, as it most certainly will have the same capacity to undermine my own strategies.
  • #5,277
  • Oct 2, 2009 9:54pm Oct 2, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting Low
I had my own thoughts about NFP today, which is one of the reasons I brought it up, and they may be a result of my inexperience, but I'll let you decide.

People who have been investing and trading for decades lost money when the bubble burst in 2007. People who knew bear markets and bull markets, people who should've seen it coming, and one of the reasons I believe, is because in 2007 the US economy more or less completely decoupled form it's fundamental underpinnings. Sales, earnings, PE ratios, whatever people had been relying for most of their...
This is a great post. This is the kind of post that can start another entire line of thinking. (It's funny actually....I would have rather seen it on it's own thread, and not "wasted" on mine...it might get lost in the mix.)

You are correct in my opinion. The fundamentals have completely been left behind. There will be a time when they come back in my humble opinion. When that happens, there will be hell to pay.

But I take exception with the whole "technicians say that everything is baked into the charts" bit. Not you personally, but I never liked that saying because of how I look at the charts.....and here's how it goes -

I don't give a rat's rump what's "baked in", I am simply looking where the masses are buying and selling. I see places where there is a ton of support. If a support line has held 5,6,7 or even 8 times, I know that when it finally breaks down - that's a ton of people that just had their asses handed to them. I don't care why. That's for the economists and the mentally weak. I just need to know where the orders are. The "why" never really matters. It's the what that makes the difference. Let the tossers on television worry about that. I want to spend my time on more important things in life than worrying about what other traders think.

You can read all over the forums about "How hard trading is". Bullshit. It's not. It's insecurity that is difficult to deal with. It's rejection that's difficult to deal with. A chart? Any idiot can read one.

The people that think there is some kind of magic involved in this, are the same ones that hang on every word that is said by Bob Pisani, and the crew at CNBC. (Funny, the 1/2 hour before NFP today, they were playing Europe's "The Final Countdown", just like we were getting ready to either go into battle, or play a football game. Tossers, the lot.)

Funny, I think I just came up with my next "Psychology" video. Thanks!



Great post as usual.

Chris
  • #5,278
  • Edited 3:17am Oct 3, 2009 3:00am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think it cleared that pin by enough personally.....not at such an important point. BUT....this is one of those that could have gone either way really.....

Sometimes, it just happens.

I see, the fact is that the order was triggered as a buy stop, probably if I were going to enter the trade manually I would have passed

edit: I'm asking this mainly because I'm at the beginning of a learning process, so I'm insicure, always think that I've done something wrong
  • #5,279
  • Oct 3, 2009 7:32am Oct 3, 2009 7:32am
Quoting ttteee
I see, the fact is that the order was triggered as a buy stop, probably if I were going to enter the trade manually I would have passed

edit: I'm asking this mainly because I'm at the beginning of a learning process, so I'm insicure, always think that I've done something wrong
Dont worry, when we start, we always worry about being "wrong". It's a process, enjoy the ride.
  • #5,280
  • Oct 3, 2009 7:52am Oct 3, 2009 7:52am
Quoting clockwork71

You are correct in my opinion. The fundamentals have completely been left behind. There will be a time when they come back in my humble opinion. When that happens, there will be hell to pay.
I to a degree think that fundamentals are represented in the market. The fed is printing money, the money is going into assets, such as stocks, gold, etc. Causing more demand, and higher prices and DOW values.

If you are in cash, inflation will get to you and decrease your purchasing power.

Essentially all that extra cash from the fed is going into the market and inflating it. When the fed stops printing, contracting money supply or the gov devalues the dollar, then we will start seeing market down, IMO.

-snacker
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