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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #2,621
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:34pm Sep 24, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting Suj_cess
Hi everyone. This is my view on the gbpusd H4 chart.

This current corrective wave may not exceed 1.6100. I suspect that the next break out will be a strong impulse wave up with a high expectation that it will go beyond 1.7050. I hope everyone is collecting BUY positions as i see a very strong upward bias.

Happy pippin!
Anything is always possible when you look at a chart.

Try checking the higher time frames to get your bearings. remember that the waves in the smaller time frame make up the bigger waves of the higher timeframes.

I can not claim that I have mastered EWA. but it sure helps to combine it with other strategies.

EG
  • #2,622
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:45pm Sep 24, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting MasterN
so far I hope I was right .. the count says that the C wave is unfolding in a 5 impulsive waves to the downside .. I believe if 3 = 1.61 * 1 then it should end at 1.6138 and then sub wave 4 will start .

I attached the chart to show what I mean ..
You are loaded with profit now if you traded your wave count.

Yes that is very possible that we are now in a wave "c"

I would label it as wave 3 or "c" though especially because your proposed "a" was a leading diagonal triangle for me. wave 1 can also take this form.

I would like to consider my counts as possibly conservative so I view it in multiple ways to label it.

As to projections "c" for me can take the following projections

c = a (0.618)
c = a (1.00)
c = a (1.618)

beyond these, "c" may actually be more of 3

Short term targets I would refer to trendline supports, pivot levels and other strategies.

EG
  • #2,623
  • Edited 4:49pm Sep 24, 2009 4:38pm | Edited 4:49pm
Cable

Looking at the 15min chart

if what we see is a dominant wave 3 which is developing its internal wave 5 , then likely we would see w5 = w1 (0.618) because w1 almost equal to w3 for the internal count.

Then likely we would see that retrace for the w4 in the 15min chart

EG
  • #2,624
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:58pm Sep 24, 2009 4:58pm
61.8% projection has been exceeded at 1.5942.

Bouncing near weekly S2 and Daily S1

others would trade this for a long. But I prefer to stay out.

I may have just missed the more than 125pip drop.

But I am fine with that.

EG
  • #2,625
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:02pm Sep 24, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting el grande
61.8% projection has been exceeded at 1.5942.

Bouncing near weekly S2 and Daily S1

others would trade this for a long. But I prefer to stay out.

I may have just missed the more than 125pip drop.

But I am fine with that.

EG
I have bagged whole down leg, of the small intraday triangle breakout, around 130 pips above. Trade details @ my journal. That has to be my fastest pips in quite some time now

Good night and safe trading.
  • #2,626
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:11pm Sep 24, 2009 5:11pm
Quoting el grande
Cable

Looking at the 15min chart

if what we see is a dominant wave 3 which is developing its internal wave 5 , then likely we would see w5 = w1 (0.618) because w1 almost equal to w3 for the internal count.

Then likely we would see that retrace for the w4 in the 15min chart

EG
I did trade my wave count .. and I was loaded .. the thing is I got greedy .. what can I say .. and decided to go against the trend and trade wave 4 .. I`m stuck now with gbp hoping for a correction .. ( a wave 4 to start with Tokyo anytime soon ) ... otherwise I will lose almost half of the profits I`ve done on GBP .. ... that is what I get for trading against the trend ..
  • #2,627
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:19pm Sep 24, 2009 5:19pm
MOnthly Bearish engulfing is not so convincing. other indicators show possible new ne high still to come. monthly support view of price still going for 61.8 retracement of wave 3. But remember that this is on the monthly chart.

Weekly trend on the chart may show a probable trend down. However it has not exhibited a dominant divergence. so possible trend up is still in place.

Daily shows multiple wave count possibilities. But by the way it looks from the low of 1.3502 it may be a WXYXxZ where Xx is currently in development for a possible zigzag with targets of 1.5858 and 1.5481

A daily support trendline has been broken so more move down will be expected by many. Anticipating a bounce now and trading long trades will be suicide for me. Since I missed the train for this move down I prefer to stay out and wait for clearer signals to jump in on my preferred trade.

So we can forget the development of a possible triangle formation on the daily.

EG
  • #2,628
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:28pm Sep 24, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting MasterN
I did trade my wave count .. and I was loaded .. the thing is I got greedy .. what can I say .. and decided to go against the trend and trade wave 4 .. I`m stuck now with gbp hoping for a correction .. ( a wave 4 to start with Tokyo anytime soon ) ... otherwise I will lose almost half of the profits I`ve done on GBP .. ... that is what I get for trading against the trend ..
The market has a way of reminding us about our greed

EG
  • #2,629
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:38pm Sep 24, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting belekas
I have bagged whole down leg, of the small intraday triangle breakout, around 130 pips above. Trade details @ my journal. That has to be my fastest pips in quite some time now

Good night and safe trading.
Well done. You probably won't need EW at the rate you are going.

However it is a good additional tool for trading plus interesting how another strategy fits into your current strategy.

Thru these 3 years I have been reading and studying and applying what I have gathered, I see that these strategies reflect how people have developed various ways of looking at the market.

And many of them actually almost coincide with their target levels and even retracement levels.

That is why I seek validation from multiple strategies to increase my confidence in my trade or before I enter a trade. Often times though I miss many potentially profitable trades.

Yet, I can not complain with what I have received from the market already.

EG
  • #2,630
  • Sep 25, 2009 12:04am Sep 25, 2009 12:04am
Quoting el grande
Well done....
Appreciate it. Yes. I have what i need(tools) to build the castle, but as you said, its might be vital, and hopefully fruitfull, to understand EW principle. I will post some of class A setups, and how i manage them my way, when there will be any
  • #2,631
  • Sep 25, 2009 2:06am Sep 25, 2009 2:06am
Possibility of divergence in the daily which may lead to a re test of the broken trendline support to become a resistance level.

4hr is not clear with divergence

but the 1hr is indicating a possible move up for what could be a retracement of this morning's drop. Although, the 1hr still does not show any signs of divergence. So overall, we would expect some more move down on the 1hr chart.

I am trading some Longs right now as I can afford to do it since I am free to track price this pm. otherwise I would have stayed out.

with this counter trend trading, I would be glad to grab a few pips here and there when I see them.

EG
  • #2,632
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:03am Sep 25, 2009 3:03am
Cable 15min

Price has been trapped in a tightening range.a possible "b" wave of a corrective wave 4 on 15min chart.

aside from a support trendline, I have several renges and levels of support beneath price range now.

Price likely to breakout to the topside ( likely my bias as I am still holding some counter trend trades. Risk I can afford.

EG
  • #2,633
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:10am Sep 25, 2009 3:10am
took off 1 and 2 more to go
  • #2,634
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:50am Sep 25, 2009 3:50am
Quoting belekas
Thanks....sky is the limit ...
indeed,
Never stop learning


Quoting el grande
Welcome....
And so is evryone else who wants to. But very few seem interested.
...
it's more like few understand.
i'll start posting here as soon as i get a grasp on EW.
  • #2,635
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:56am Sep 25, 2009 3:56am
Hi Greeting,

I'm newbies to E-Wave. Could somebody help to verify my counting. Thanks.


http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gif

http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gifhttp://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gif
Sad But True
  • #2,636
  • Edited 2:15pm Sep 25, 2009 5:16am | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting amat_kayu
Hi Greeting,

I'm newbies to E-Wave. Could somebody help to verify my counting. Thanks.


http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gif

http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gifhttp://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...-sept09new.gif

Weekly and daily are a possibility.

The 4hour exhibits a leading diagonal triangle

I view it as a possible "a" for your (1) and a "b" for your (2)

I apologize for the above. This should have been "your "A" is a leading diagonal triangle. But I would label it as "A" or 1 and your "B" as "B" or 2. and will only switch to 123 if "C" exceeds 1.618 of "A"

But again it is a or 1 then b or 2 until your wave c exceeds 161.8 of a.

Then it is more likely that it is a 3 if it exceeds.

EG
  • #2,637
  • Sep 25, 2009 9:23am Sep 25, 2009 9:23am
well ...these are the wave counts I can spot regarding eur and gbp ..... so far what is going on with EUR is a correction of ABC not impulsive waves ( as I see it ) ..

as for GBP I believe we are starting the C leg of the 4th wave ... and if I`m right then there is an alternation between wave 2 and wave 4 as so far it is going sideways .

El-grande .. hopefully it will be good for you trading against the trend .. didn`t go all too well for me last night .

at last weekend .. have fun all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur h4.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur h1.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp h1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #2,638
  • Sep 25, 2009 4:39pm Sep 25, 2009 4:39pm
was able to exit the last 2 trades I posted and made several (scalp trades) more after which earned but the last 3 is causing me a total of 226 pips draw down which is currently hedged. ( my broker is not in the US so I can hedge).

hedged it when I went to sleep at midnight. but my tp for the buy trades was a bit high. But if I set it at +1 or zero, then it would have been off already and the hedge would still be at profit even now.

Anyway currently holding
Buy
1.6020
1.6024
1.5027

Sell
1.5953 +1
1.5954 +2
1.5954 +2

Monday should get these trades out.

Actually I was planning to wake up here in asia before the session end to maximize profits on either side it is on. But I was late about 30min.

Note that it is likely that traders take profit before lunch and before the session ends. aside from before an important news if the trade is on their side.

EG
  • #2,639
  • Sep 25, 2009 10:59pm Sep 25, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting el grande
Weekly and daily are a possibility.

The 4hour exhibits a leading diagonal triangle

I view it as a possible "a" for your (1) and a "b" for your (2)

I apologize for the above. This should have been "your "A" is a leading diagonal triangle. But I would label it as "A" or 1 and your "B" as "B" or 2. and will only switch to 123 if "C" exceeds 1.618 of "A"

But again it is a or 1 then b or 2 until your wa ve c exceeds 161.8 of a.

Then it is more likely that it is a 3 if it exceeds.
Hi EG,

Thanks for your comments. really appreciate that!

Let me try to understand your view.

scenario 1.
if cable move exceed 1.618 of (1) then the recent wave should be counted as (3). I illustrate as below.

http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...unt26-sept.gif

scenario 2.
if wave c does not exceed 1.618 then should be labeled as c, as illustrated below. correct me if I'm wrong.

http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/h...ount26sept.gif

However , for the 2nd scenario, I'm not able to understand the pattern.
what is the formation for 2nd screnario. Is it 3-3-3 formation?
Could u attached picture if possible. How to project c, as you did projecting 3.


Thanks

rdgs
amat
Sad But True
  • #2,640
  • Edited 2:10pm Sep 26, 2009 8:48am | Edited 2:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26 Sept Weekend Analysis.gif Size: 93 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26 Sept Weekend Analysis60m.gif Size: 83 KB


This is my weekend analysis of the cable using some Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Counting.

My Elliott Wave blog
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