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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #165,181
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:41am Sep 13, 2009 4:41am
Quoting Hell7
A few weeks ago I posted a new pitchfork on the daily chart, and it's time for an update as I shorted the top earlier today for a swing trade
They made me sweat on Friday, but I'm still short for a swing trade. The when & why can be found on my blog.
  • #165,182
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:52am Sep 13, 2009 4:52am
We're going to tank bigtime.

1st target 6165.

Good luck
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Thank You
  • #165,183
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:08am Sep 13, 2009 5:08am
From a Daily prospective the the lower set up was nice and clear for up move.Potential rising TL looks set to be tested daily closes over 6600 up to top.

Quoting Bones
Nice
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #165,184
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:20am Sep 13, 2009 5:20am
Top of range has been touched to the pip and there is a potential falling Tl.There is the warning bearish evening star pattern from a few weeks ago and if price is rejected here that candle will have a lot of space and tho small will be pretty powerful.
The weekly is in range- breakout will dictate next tradable trend otherwise keep it tight.

Quoting Bones
No trend to speak of,but I would suspect a blue candle this week.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #165,185
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:28am Sep 13, 2009 5:28am
If you look deeper into the pair take $ ,its in a downtrend ,broke to downside as expected ,76 is my medium term target, lets face it weekly opened bearish and will close bearish.Daily shows potential of retrace but break of week low takes us to target

Quoting Bones
the $ has been in strong down trend,may be its time for break up ,got to close over 80,below blue support go to 76
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #165,186
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:53am Sep 13, 2009 5:53am
Sub 1.6000
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Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #165,187
  • Edited 6:52am Sep 13, 2009 6:44am | Edited 6:52am
Here was my view on when holding Longs from 16162/72:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3021614&postcount=163321

Reason for entering was looking at Accumulation patterns on the tape:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3016018&postcount=162824

Note, the above chart is not representative of reading the ticker, but has been shown as a 5min line chart = easier reference for newer traders.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3012089&postcount=162329

The above chart shows why I was sure a bear trap was in progress.


This post and charts from August 29th shows my longer term view. Note the links within the chart to further charts showing how the market would be captured with most on the wrong side here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2998082#post2998082

But of course, I also posted this chart explaining how the market would be captured and where the Stops needed to be taken out before any fall:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3004662&postcount=161734

...and this is the problem... I saw in the PA that a large move was to happen to the upside, this lead me to look for North targets, many of which have been triggered and taken, BUT the last link shows the Stop Loss areas that would need to be taken out before any drop. Now, we have hit these areas and wiped out most traders SL’s, the question is: Do we rise further or fall from here?
I could hold for the other Long targets as posted on the charts, but it just seems that something is not “quite right” with the PA. Hence the reason I closed all long positions on Cable at the end of the week.

2 scenarios in play here:

1st, the stop loss hunt/short squeeze could turn into a bull rally as mentioned in a previous post, the cup and handle formation remain in play meaning my targets up to and above 170/80/90 remain valid.

2nd, this is just a stop hunt/short squeeze and in actual fact we drop very heavily from here.

Question is, which one is correct?

I mentioned on Friday morning I was Short GBP/JPY and leaving cable alone until I saw confirmation within the PA during Sunday PM/Monday AM (GMT). Seems a good choice to have left Cable alone (seeing as it didn’t move at all.)
This has lead me to believe the reason Cable didn’t move on Friday was due to similar predictability: Buyers taking profit, Sellers jumping in, but Sellers cautious and waiting before adding larger positions.

Now, looking at the charts this is what I see:
I am taking a swing trade South, but expect a possible spike up before we go. We need to drop from here to pick up further buyers if we are to sustain a move above 167/8/9. The drop in my opinion may be lower than 165/163 area and would then be in danger of triggering a move below the bottom of the range at 161. I am also still holding short GBP/JPY from 15220 with SL at BE.

Hope you had a great weekend, see you LDN.
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  • #165,188
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:45am Sep 13, 2009 8:45am
Guys,

I've just uploaded my video review of my trade which i did on the 10th - based around the rate decision:

Inserted Video


please comment / rate the video as it helps others learn.

Cheers WG
  • #165,189
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:22am Sep 13, 2009 9:22am
After spending my Sunday morning reading and studying the last two pages, I am ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that the Cable will either go up or it will go down.

But, don't take my word for it. I could be wrong.
  • #165,190
  • Sep 13, 2009 9:38am Sep 13, 2009 9:38am
  •  refugee
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Be patient, cautious, & skeptical. | 50 Posts
Quoting billparoli
After spending my Sunday morning reading and studying the last two pages, I am ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that the Cable will either go up or it will go down.

But, don't take my word for it. I could be wrong.

Great post, you should become an analyst with insight like that! Just cut out the tongue in cheek humor and accept a huge paycheck and you'll be there!
  • #165,191
  • Sep 13, 2009 10:25am Sep 13, 2009 10:25am
Quoting direct-trade
Here was my view on when holding Longs from 16162/72:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3021614&postcount=163321

Reason for entering was looking at Accumulation patterns on the tape:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3016018&postcount=162824...
good thinking as always....
  • #165,192
  • Sep 13, 2009 10:34am Sep 13, 2009 10:34am
Quoting Jesus4748
well i understand where ur coming from but i want to give my opinion on that guys ,,, firstly if i take a closer look to the 4 hours chart for the GBP i wont say that it hit a previous 30/june or 3rd of june highs ,, cause it was just spikes in june but this month it went up and closed successfully 6 candels over the 1.6640s level which it closed at it in june ,,, it even went down and touched it and went up and closed over1.6730s before it went down again ,,,,
few hours to watch then
spirit 0f pipping
  • #165,193
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:33am Sep 13, 2009 11:33am
good luck guys..
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  • #165,194
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:41am Sep 13, 2009 11:41am
Is this correct, can someone check in platform i can"t are we dropping to 1.6136 at the oppening, this can not be or?
http://www.forexrate.co.uk/quotes/gbp.php
I am back. Actually, I never left...
  • #165,195
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:44am Sep 13, 2009 11:44am
possible 3 inside up would put target at 1.7 area.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #165,196
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:48am Sep 13, 2009 11:48am
Quoting taragula
Is this correct, can someone check in platform i can"t are we dropping to 1.6136 at the oppening, this can not be or?
http://www.forexrate.co.uk/quotes/gbp.php

Price currently trading @ 1.6663

The website must be outdated.

Regards
  • #165,197
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:49am Sep 13, 2009 11:49am
Quoting Bones
possible 3 inside up would put target at 1.7 area.

u lost me bro, (3 inside up) did it
  • #165,198
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:50am Sep 13, 2009 11:50am
Quoting TauTrader
Price currently trading @ 1.6663

The website must be outdated.

Regards
... he nearly killed me since i held in the weekend dragon thou
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  • #165,199
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:56am Sep 13, 2009 11:56am
Quoting nAVIN2007
... he nearly killed me since i held in the weekend dragon thou
Good day to you, Nav

Yip, you are then sitting pretty. Charts show room for you to bank some more. Target 150.02?

Good luck with your effort!
  • #165,200
  • Sep 13, 2009 12:05pm Sep 13, 2009 12:05pm
lol well 3 inside up is the pattern we see right now ,and if confirms by breaking up 1.7 is the next level is what I mean ...

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs61.asp


Quoting nAVIN2007
u lost me bro, (3 inside up) did it
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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