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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #24,021
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:58pm Aug 24, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting cisco
Earlier I said the Monterey Pop Festival was on the Sundown Channel at 8:00 EDT. I was totally wrong. It's at 7:45 on the Sundance Channel.
i guess EO will be disappointed with what he records then (he emailed his tv)
  • #24,022
  • Aug 24, 2009 3:02pm Aug 24, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Way to Go...
Thanks Ken. It's due in no small part to all your GREAT posts!!...

BTW, I'll NEVER get tired of that big dancing smiley dude you have there...

Brings a to my face every time...lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,023
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:06pm Aug 24, 2009 4:06pm
Hi guys,

I went long EJ at the yellow marked hammer because it closed above the PPA line. The next candle went lower and closed below the PPA line - so I closed the trade for a loss.

Was this right or should I have held onto the trade as my stop was 20 pips below the low of the hammer?

Would have been better - in hindsight.

Thanks

tdeu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej hammer long.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #24,024
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:15pm Aug 24, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting tdeu
Hi guys,

I went long EJ at the yellow marked hammer because it closed above the PPA line. The next candle went lower and closed below the PPA line - so I closed the trade for a loss.

Was this right or should I have held onto the trade as my stop was 20 pips below the low of the hammer?


Would have been better - in hindsight.

Thanks

tdeu
It worked out it made it to the 21 ema where you covered. If you would have entered partially on the open of the next candle you could have add your additional position down in the wick once you saw the bottom held and it started back up.. Also some might have waited for the price to cross the top of the candle you have marked. But either way it should have worked out. The stop would have been below your trigger candle or you could have re entered of it agian. Once you see it held later..

Also it closed below that trendline you have drawn there which it had to get back over..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #24,025
  • Edited 4:34pm Aug 24, 2009 4:22pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting tdeu
Hi guys,

I went long EJ at the yellow marked hammer because it closed above the PPA line. The next candle went lower and closed below the PPA line - so I closed the trade for a loss.

Was this right or should I have held onto the trade as my stop was 20 pips below the low of the hammer?

Would have been better - in hindsight.

Thanks

tdeu
I will try and clearly answer this because it was a successful trade for me.

The PPA that I was looking at was the 1hr support from Friday in the 135.20 area. As you can see buyers came in when price first reached this area and formed the hammer. I waited for price to go back down the wick of said hammer. I actually entered on the 3rd candle when I saw price had failed to close below 135.20 twice thus I entered at 135.236. I hope this is clear and helps.
  • #24,026
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:42pm Aug 24, 2009 4:42pm
Thanks,

Seems I took the wrong PA as a level (the hammer like candle from 8 hours earlier with a low around 135.30).

As a general ruling - should I close a position in a similar setup if a following candle CLOSES below a PPA line (invalidating it) before it hits my stop?

thanks

tdeu

Quoting PippiNole
I will try and clearly answer this because it was a successful trade for me.

The PPA that I was looking at was the 1hr support from Friday in the 135.20 area. As you can see buyers came in when price first reached this area and formed the hammer. I waited for price to go back down the wick of said hammer. I actually entered on the 3rd candle when I saw price had failed to close below 135.20 twice thus I entered at 135.236. I hope this is clear and helps.
  • #24,027
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:58pm Aug 24, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting tdeu
Thanks,

Seems I took the wrong PA as a level (the hammer like candle from 8 hours earlier with a low around 135.30).

As a general ruling - should I close a position in a similar setup if a following candle CLOSES below a PPA line (invalidating it) before it hits my stop?

thanks

tdeu
Look at your higher time frames as to why price is behaving as it is in a given area (S/R). On this particular trade I was placing more emphasis on the 1 hr. support than the prior 15min. hammer.
  • #24,028
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:12pm Aug 24, 2009 5:12pm
Buy PO on the mistress at 134.80. Tight Sl at 134.65. Going to sleep now. See you all at 1:00Am EST....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,029
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:30pm Aug 24, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting albchr
Buy PO on the mistress at 134.80. Tight Sl at 134.65. Going to sleep now. See you all at 1:00Am EST....
Ouch.

Your trade got caught in a data release. Good thing
having a tight stopped. Seemed like a good entry.

First time in more than 16 yrs the 3m JPY Libor rate
rose above the 3m US Libor rate. The UJ then dropped
a quick 30 pips. Must have pulled your mistress down.

Dr. D.
  • #24,030
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:49pm Aug 24, 2009 9:49pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Ouch.

Your trade got caught in a data release. Good thing
having a tight stopped. Seemed like a good entry.

First time in more than 16 yrs the 3m JPY Libor rate
rose above the 3m US Libor rate. The UJ then dropped
a quick 30 pips. Must have pulled your mistress down.

Dr. D.
That figures. Right Idea, wrong timing...LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,031
  • Aug 25, 2009 2:41am Aug 25, 2009 2:41am
Taking another stab at the mistress.

Long 134.70 off the 1H/200 and 1H support at 134.61. Sl at 134.50.
(.2) standard.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,032
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:24am Aug 25, 2009 3:24am
Quoting albchr
Taking another stab at the mistress.

Long 134.70 off the 1H/200 and 1H support at 134.61. Sl at 134.50.
(.2) standard.
Well, Ass kicked again. -20...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,033
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:27am Aug 25, 2009 3:27am
Quoting albchr
Taking another stab at the mistress.

Long 134.70 off the 1H/200 and 1H support at 134.61. Sl at 134.50.
(.2) standard.
I would be careful trading e/j until you can say you've mastered trading cable with this system. e/j in my experience is more violent and less predictable than cable. Most of my summer losses came on it so obviously I would say that--and have gone back to cable only, which truth be told is enough to make you rich--but I think it's less forgiving than cable in terms of being quite bull-headed once it gets going. If you think of e/u as cable-lite, then e/j is for cable pros only in my opinion.
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #24,034
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:40am Aug 25, 2009 3:40am
Quoting terje
I would be careful trading e/j until you can say you've mastered trading cable with this system. e/j in my experience is more violent and less predictable than cable. Most of my summer losses came on it so obviously I would say that--and have gone back to cable only, which truth be told is enough to make you rich--but I think it's less forgiving than cable in terms of being quite bull-headed once it gets going. If you think of e/u as cable-lite, then e/j is for cable pros only in my opinion.
I do OK with both. That was just a stupid thing on my part. After seeing the 1H tweezers I "could have" gotten out for -1 or 2. But I was stubborn. I actually could have taken +12 shortly after entering but I was greedy. Like I said, stupid on my part...TWICE...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,035
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:53am Aug 25, 2009 3:53am
Quoting albchr
I do OK with both. That was just a stupid thing on my part. After seeing the 1H tweezers I "could have" gotten out for -1 or 2. But I was stubborn. I actually could have taken +12 shortly after entering but I was greedy. Like I said, stupid on my part...TWICE...
well fair enough. I pointed it out only because I don't see any reason to throw away good pips. But if you do okay on both, then good going.
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #24,036
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:00am Aug 25, 2009 4:00am
Quoting terje
I would be careful trading e/j until you can say you've mastered trading cable with this system. e/j in my experience is more violent and less predictable than cable. Most of my summer losses came on it so obviously I would say that--and have gone back to cable only, which truth be told is enough to make you rich--but I think it's less forgiving than cable in terms of being quite bull-headed once it gets going. If you think of e/u as cable-lite, then e/j is for cable pros only in my opinion.
So would you say for traders new to this method to start on e/u then add cable, then finally e/j?
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #24,037
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:01am Aug 25, 2009 4:01am
Quoting terje
well fair enough. I pointed it out only because I don't see any reason to throw away good pips. But if you do okay on both, then good going.
No you're right man. It's good advice as I am just learning this system and I DO need to be more careful. Sometimes I find myself getting fixated on the 15m chart and it's MA's. Had I switched back to the 1H sooner, I'd have done better on it.

Your thoughts and views are always welcome and appreciated....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #24,038
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:11am Aug 25, 2009 4:11am
Quoting tac
So would you say for traders new to this method to start on e/u then add cable, then finally e/j?
I think whichever you start with--and I'm sure some would say that you could start with e/j--you should focus on that one only so you can 1) learn the method, and 2) build confidence through that method. Some guys can concentrate on many different charts at the same time--davids' your man for that--but guys like me wilt when they are distracted so I'd recommend any beginners stick to just one pair. As for which one, I'd say cable because this method is tailored to it I think. Yes most of the MAs will work on e/u (5/10, 50s/ema, 200) though I think there are others which don't if my memory serves (21/62). The interpretation of candles and s/r levels will work the same across the board however so there's little reason not to try e/u if you fancy practising on a slower mover which is quite clear to read IMO. EO and Infity sometimes trade e/u so they're the ones to ask about it. Cable seems to offer the best of both worlds IMO -- fast enough to reap a great reward when correct but usually no "what the hell just happened" sort of suprises.

cheers albchr, likewise mate.
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #24,039
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:23am Aug 25, 2009 4:23am
Quoting terje
I think whichever you start with--and I'm sure some would say that you could start with e/j--you should focus on that one only so you can 1) learn the method, and 2) build confidence through that method. Some guys can concentrate on many different charts at the same time--davids' your man for that--but guys like me wilt when they are distracted so I'd recommend any beginners stick to just one pair. As for which one, I'd say cable because this method is tailored to it I think. Yes most of the MAs will work on e/u (5/10, 50s/ema, 200) though I think...
Thanks
I agree with sticking to one pair, while learning the method. And I think there should be enough opportunities on one pair to compound you account.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #24,040
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:29am Aug 25, 2009 4:29am
Quoting albchr
Well, Ass kicked again. -20...
Now watch...she'll go to the moon...lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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