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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #4,821
  • Edited 4:04am Aug 24, 2009 4:00am | Edited 4:04am
I think this chart demonstrates what I was on about Strat. I think we are singing from the same song sheet, just another method of confirmation that a trend change could be in the offing?
Recall Al's saying:
"Major reversals reverse a trend that has been in effect for days or weeks. The best trend reversal entries have a break of a significant TL before the set-up, because you do not want to to enter counter-trend until you know the counter-trend traders have already shown some ability to control the market. Enter on a pullback that tests the trend's extreme.

At point A we have a trend line break. Remember at this time we can't see the rest of the PA to the right. So, because we have a TL break and we are patient traders we wait for that BO to be tested with a pullback. We also get a double top bear flag at the SR level .6066 indicating lower prices to come. This happens at point B but now because we have had a major TL break we are looking for PASR to tell us that the bulls are in charge. Point B is also at the Big Boss DSRI drawn from the low in Nov 1999 to low in Jan 2001.

This comes with the small double bottom and the BUEB on Mar 10. The script then picks up from where you started.

This is all I was trying to explain to help me better understand when to expect a reversal and not to go chasing the market on sucker moves. It seems that there is ALWAYS a chance to get in on any move as 90% of the time the market comes back to test the break out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,822
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:19am Aug 24, 2009 4:19am
After the above, now look at the Dow Jones. We had a significant TL break but where is the test of that BO's extreme?? I think we will see that action develop in the area of the shaded circle. Here we have the target from the V bottom pattern (distance from bottom to top of the V flipped and added north much in the same as you would for a H&S pattern) We also have a major TL down to contend with and the extreme of an expanding triangle (always bearish), combined with the boss 20ema. To me, this is a big area that I will be watching closely. I'm fully expecting a further bottom to at least test the BO of the steep TL down at 6700 or even lower to give us a lower low W bottom. (This of course can be dangerous because we are not supposed to think, just trade what the chart is telling us!!)

What do other Tech traders' think? Dr Joe would know of course! It stops going up when it starts going down!
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,823
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:28am Aug 24, 2009 4:28am
Quoting Grimweasel
After the above, now look at the Dow Jones. We had a significant TL break but where is the test of that BO's extreme?? I think we will see that action develop in the area of the shaded circle. Here we have the target from the V bottom pattern (distance from bottom to top of the V flipped and added north much in the same as you would for a H&S pattern) We also have a major TL down to contend with and the extreme of an expanding triangle (always bearish), combined with the boss 20ema. To me, this is a big area that I will be watching closely. I'm...
""Dr Joe would know of course! It stops going up when it starts going down!""

That's all you need to know, Danny boy - its that SIMPLE!

In other words, as long as its going up, KEEP BUYING
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,824
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:39am Aug 24, 2009 4:39am
Hey Pizza man,

I keep going back to that picture of you in your pink frock that you sent me and the more I look at it, the more I want to play with you!

If I vouch for you, do you promise to play that game with me?

Well I've done it now, so you had better play ball now!
Attached Image
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,825
  • Edited 5:24am Aug 24, 2009 5:22am | Edited 5:24am
That noise you hear as you look at this is me and my Strat singing our heart out for the loss of a loved one.

Maybe if we all sing together she will come back!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,826
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:34am Aug 24, 2009 5:34am
We were in this mess exactly one year ago so let's hope for a repeat.

Get the kids back to school and The Merchant Wankers back at their desks!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,827
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:14am Aug 24, 2009 6:14am
Quoting strat
Pulling up the NZDUSD gives us (me anyway) an opportunity to look at how to trade a trend reversal with LOW RISK.

At point A we are expecting our fun with selling to end because we have:

1)Hit MAJOR SUPPORT (psycho 0.5000)

and

2)We have a breakout and a test of our DSRI indicator (thin red line)

[font=Arial]There is a Bond Hammer on March 3rd which when considered with all the candles around it testing and...
Thanks for this post. Another single post that teaches more than 20-30 pages of posts.

Please keep boring us.
  • #4,828
  • Aug 24, 2009 9:54am Aug 24, 2009 9:54am
Something else to keep an eye on...

Natgas - Been in a major downtrend for some time. The major TL down has been broken and we have revisited the lows from that TL BO hammer back in Apr. The MAs have levelled out and and we are now running into the autumn months where demand from Europe and the US should start picking up.

Today's bar is a BUOB but I'd like to see a challenge of the last high of the down move at 4.165. I also checked the ETFS Nat Gas short etf and looking at that chart we have a triple top.

Now I won't be trading this per se, but going long with the Nat Gas ETC (NGAS) ETF - there is a leveraged version too (LNGA on LSE), but only once it has started going up (Dr Joe!) - One to keep an eye on!

I used this method before and used a Short Corn ETF recently and made a tidy little profit.
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,829
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:08am Aug 24, 2009 10:08am
Today's Chunnel action is a nice example of why price levels are superior to other forms of TA (yes). One can explain the price action in terms of various studies, but the simple truth is that appropriate levels were breached on Friday, identified on the thread (Blackeagle I believe), and are now off running. The technicians are probably still waiting for their stochastics to reach oversold levels again.
  • #4,830
  • Aug 24, 2009 10:13am Aug 24, 2009 10:13am
On a related note, my enamoured pair has been rebuffed on its initial sojoun north of 95 despite an enticing technical picture. That is a tough level, however, so, once again, I am advertising this sale on any suggestive PA at current levels. The bargain basement sale was below 93, as noted at the time.
  • #4,831
  • Aug 24, 2009 11:21am Aug 24, 2009 11:21am
Quoting strat
Our patience is rewarded when on, May 18, we get a BUEB but wait, it is more than that!

It is bouncing off our DSRI indicator confirming DYNAMIC SUPPORT. Your local Italian Ice Cream man will also give you a half and half confluence double whipped cornet!
Hello Strat.
It was very helpful post. I have a question regarding BUEB on May 18. If we enter above the high of the bar and put SL below the swing low we would have about 150 pips SL.
The next resistance area is at 0.6050 so how would you manage the trade? Would you set PT which would yields about 80 pips? Or would you rely on breakout of 0.6050 and trail your SL accordingly?
Thank you
alter
  • #4,832
  • Aug 24, 2009 1:17pm Aug 24, 2009 1:17pm
Why do you think it is better to draw TLs on closes. Everybody has different daily closing time so TLs will be different whereas highs and lows are almost the same. There is also problem if you change time frame as weekly TLs will have different closes but still the same highs and lows as daily charts.
thank you.
  • #4,833
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:25pm Aug 24, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting alter
Hello Strat.
It was very helpful post. I have a question regarding BUEB on May 18. If we enter above the high of the bar and put SL below the swing low we would have about 150 pips SL.
The next resistance area is at 0.6050 so how would you manage the trade? Would you set PT which would yields about 80 pips? Or would you rely on breakout of 0.6050 and trail your SL accordingly?
Thank you
alter
This comes down to your level of experience. If you are just a few steps on The Path, you should just trade from support to resistance. Experienced traders recognise the support from DSRI and will hold on for bigger profits.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,834
  • Aug 24, 2009 4:31pm Aug 24, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting alter
Why do you think it is better to draw TLs on closes. Everybody has different daily closing time so TLs will be different whereas highs and lows are almost the same. There is also problem if you change time frame as weekly TLs will have different closes but still the same highs and lows as daily charts.
thank you.
Did you read AND understand post # 4815 and all my other posts regarding why close is the most important level on a bar/candle?

Did you look at and study all those charts I posted last week - your answer should have jumped out at you.

The close represents the beginning and end of buying and selling pressure on any bar/candle on any time frame. Highs and lows are just over runs/stop runs around true buying and selling pressure.

Data closing is all relative - the closes on your data are relative to ALL the data on your charts.

Changing time frames on closes is NOT a problem
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,835
  • Edited 5:50pm Aug 24, 2009 5:10pm | Edited 5:50pm
This is tempting but the weekly (boss) candle makes me think this is a bull flag and I would prefer to trade a break for a long.
I wondered what you thought Strat
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  • #4,836
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:18pm Aug 24, 2009 5:18pm
Quoting rolyrivero
http://www.geocities.com/capicornio/blog/error.gif
Hi rolyrivero:

Where can I download that indicator?
If you only trade long, then you can't always be wrong.
  • #4,837
  • Aug 24, 2009 5:55pm Aug 24, 2009 5:55pm
Guys ...
I'm going to help you out here. If you read the whole thread (which is now quite long) you will realise three important things about Strat ...

1. He never spoonfeeds anyone.
2. He often says outrageous things that are completely wrong to see if we are paying attention.
3. The only indicator Strat really thinks is important is the one in our skulls between our eyes (our brains) and that is the holy grail


Good trading
  • #4,838
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:06pm Aug 24, 2009 6:06pm
strat,

post 4818 is just a work of art. too bad a lot of the meaning gets lost in pictures and text.

i look forward to contributing the little that i know from time to time..

ps. lol at DSRI
  • #4,839
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:48pm Aug 24, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting elitejets
This is tempting but the weekly (boss) candle makes me think this is a bull flag and I would prefer to trade a break for a long.
I wondered what you thought Strat
While all the technicals are screaming "top", it looks to me like there is still some "Dr. Joe" left in her, how much I don't know but just like cable and fiber, she just will not jump on the "bear" train.

To me, these are all well left alone until they reveal to us their true intentions through PASR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,840
  • Aug 24, 2009 6:50pm Aug 24, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting pizdun
strat,

post 4818 is just a work of art. too bad a lot of the meaning gets lost in pictures and text.

i look forward to contributing the little that i know from time to time..

ps. lol at DSRI
Thanks but if I don't use words and charts, how else can I communicate?

Seriously, tell me how I need to improve my communication skills.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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