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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #151,521
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:12am Jul 27, 2009 11:12am
yea I may have to close my Cable longs from yesturday night if 6500 dont go...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #151,522
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:13am Jul 27, 2009 11:13am
Quoting Bones
But what about Cable ,not exactly the sell off prediction made by many,actually looks like it wants to break up
,as the Dow rises so will cable...

it is coming ... sell of not going to happen in one day.

it could take 4- 8 weeks before the distribution we have been seeing for the last 2 months kicks in .

there is a 1500 to 2000 pip drop coming basedo n weekly and monthly volumes .... but this time frame takes time for things to works out.

Print thius out post on fridge GU will be at 1.4000 by Dec this year
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,523
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:15am Jul 27, 2009 11:15am
Quoting malcolmb14
what is so stupid about it ? think we could 12 day with no down day ? it was inevitable today would close lower on the dj ... in fact I think that during course of week we may see retracement down for 2 - 3 days.

Gu has a massive bearish div on 4 hour and cannot brea 1.6500 .... in fact we seem to be getting some distribution at that level.
If Dow closes in red, I would short Geppy right after close ..
  • #151,524
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:17am Jul 27, 2009 11:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
it is coming ... sell of not going to happen in one day.

it could take 4- 8 weeks before the distribution we have been seeing for the last 2 months kicks in .

there is a 1500 to 2000 pip drop coming basedo n weekly and monthly volumes .... but this time frame takes time for things to works out.

Print thius out post on fridge GU will be at 1.4000 by Dec this year
Yeah but via 1.9 Malc .
  • #151,525
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:31am Jul 27, 2009 11:31am
Quoting stewrigh
Yeah but via 1.9 Malc .

lol 1.9000 ... they got you in their web

DJ went up last week on FUMES ..... eps better than expected. OH what the top companies of the US only had 25 % less revenue and earnings this year than they did last year. NOT the 36% expected.

DJ is one big fat bull trap being set .......


as mentioned dj got new year high .... GU NOT

now if dj comes off 600 points ... GU going to drop 300 pip just like that
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,526
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:37am Jul 27, 2009 11:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
lol 1.9000 ... they got you in their web

DJ went up last week on FUMES ..... eps better than expected. OH what the top companies of the US only had 25 % less revenue and earnings this year than they did last year. NOT the 36% expected.

DJ is one big fat bull trap being set .......


as mentioned dj got new year high .... GU NOT

now if dj comes off 600 points ... GU going to drop 300 pip just like that
you're right it defies common sense...but...and this is a big but...don't underestimate the power of printing money by the CBs, theoretically Dow could go to 100'000 on worthless dough...still dangerous though..not that they haven't pulled that one once before already
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #151,527
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:40am Jul 27, 2009 11:40am
Quoting GlobalMacro
you're right it defies common sense...but...and this is a big but...don't underestimate the power of printing money by the CBs, theoretically Dow could go to 100'000 on worthless dough...still dangerous though..not that they haven't pulled that one once before already

true ... this is why i day trade .... just take the market as it comes , typically on GJ
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,528
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:40am Jul 27, 2009 11:40am
Crikey you’re so good with words Global,I love it.

Quoting GlobalMacro
Very accurate observation,Tony my friend...there's an underlying dynamics going on right now which needs to be done namely position adjustment...on a day like this one should be careful to not get caught in the proverbial "not seeing the forest for the trees"

cheers
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #151,529
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:49am Jul 27, 2009 11:49am
Quoting Bones
Crikey you’re so good with words Global,I love it.
How's it goin' buddy they just gonna rip it the minute the last remaining bull throws in the towel...but just overhead looms yet another resistance zone not too far away...

C'est la vie!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #151,530
  • Jul 27, 2009 11:55am Jul 27, 2009 11:55am
Quoting mktjong
That's right bro .. McDonald or dishwasher seems to be better .. didn't we just have minimum payment raised
damnit cable sent me to sleep..
just woke up and we havent moved
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  • #151,531
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:00pm Jul 27, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
damnit cable sent me to sleep..
just woke up and we havent moved

learn to trade futures .... they are always fun these days. Most of day been on the ES (s&p eminis)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,532
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:01pm Jul 27, 2009 12:01pm
There is a bunch of nonsense on Dow, it can't go up straight in many many days with risk aversion still in effect. .. at least consolidation a bit .. shoottt .. I bet u down soon ..
  • #151,533
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:02pm Jul 27, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol 1.9000 ... they got you in their web

DJ went up last week on FUMES ..... eps better than expected. OH what the top companies of the US only had 25 % less revenue and earnings this year than they did last year. NOT the 36% expected.

DJ is one big fat bull trap being set .......
Obviously, the big story was the better than expected Q2 earnings from the US, which has resulted in a wave of upgrades from analysts. Critics of this bullish rally, however, point out that much of these improved earnings relate to aggressive cost-cutting by companies rather than any noticeable improvement in underlying sales.

According to Bloomberg, consensus 2010 earnings expectations for the S&P 500 now stands at $74. if we take a conservative p/e ratio of 15 (long term average for S&P 500 is nearer to 18), this gives a "fair value" level of 1,110, against the current level of 980. Prior to Q2 results, many of the more bearish analysts expected S&P 500 earnings to trough at $40, with the S&P 500 bottoming out between 400 and 500 (10 - 12.5 times earnings).

However, there have been some tangible improvements across the financial markets, which cannot be denied by even the most bearish of observers. For instance, there's been a huge improvement in spreads, which have narrowed to pre-Lehman levels, with the iTraxx Europe breaking below 100bps. Investment grade coporates are now able to access the debt markets, with ample demand from yield hungry investors. Moreoever, significant tightening has been witnessed in the high yield markets, where funding has been either prohibitively expensive to borrowers or simply not available. This shows we've come a long distance from Q4 2008 and Q1 2009.

For the record, I maintain a very cautious stance with regards to the economy, despite being long risk for the majority of time in the past few months. I think the overhang of private and public sector debt will dampen economic growth for many years to come. And I also see a real possibility of a double dip for the economy at the end of 2009 or the start of 2010.

However, in the very short-term, I am bearish on cable and equities. But I will not be stubborn and stick to my guns, should these real improvements in the financial markets - some of which I have listed above - and economic data gain traction rather than fade out as some expect.

Cheers
  • #151,534
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:07pm Jul 27, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting gammase1
Obviously, the big story was the better than expected Q2 earnings from the US, which has resulted in a wave of upgrades from analysts. Critics of this bullish rally, however, point out that much of these improved earnings relate to aggressive cost-cutting by companies rather than any noticeable improvement in underlying sales.

According to Bloomberg, consensus 2010 earnings expectations for the S&P 500 now stands at $74. if we take a conservative p/e ratio of 15 (long term average for S&P 500 is nearer to 18), this gives a "fair value" level...

those changes include changing mark to market rulings .. banks do not have to report losses on assets on balance books any more.

wake up public .. 64 banks this year have gone down ... financial markets are great
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #151,535
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:11pm Jul 27, 2009 12:11pm
Glad I took the day off after hours of boredom and not enough momentum for me to trade off!!

Hope it's just due to a no news monday and not a sign of the holiday period.


Got all Tomorrow and Wednesday to trade to so expect -----------------------------------
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151,536
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:11pm Jul 27, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
those changes include changing mark to market rulings .. banks do not have to report losses on assets on balance books any more.

wake up public .. 64 banks this year have gone down ... financial markets are great
Come on, you must wake up and look at the "facts", see what is happening in various sections of the financial markets (genuine improvements in credit), in addition to your tightly formed opinion. You have to challenge your views, constantly.

Of course the financial markets are far from great. As I said, I remain very cautious on the outlook.

Cheers
  • #151,537
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:19pm Jul 27, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting albchr
I am in the exact same chair as you my friend and I can relate to you situation. I have only 5k to start with and it's all I have left in the world. As you must know through your previous losses, this is a business and not an easy one at that. I don't how much you need to live on and I certainly hope it's not as much as me but you have been given some very sound advice here.

Ask yourself, what happens "if" you do blow this borrowed money? Will that help your situation? Now you'll be broke AND in debt. Also, if you you do proceed, have you factored...
In a very similar chair to the both of you, not making any today doesn't help, but didn't lose any so it's okay.

2 Months to make £800 GBP then £800+ every month there after.

Atleast we've got trading to fall back on when times are hard, most haven't even got the vague hope of this.

Albchr, don't worry more news tomorrow odds are good we'll get some useable momentum and trends to abuse!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151,538
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:24pm Jul 27, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting Turveyd
In a very similar chair to the both of you, not making any today doesn't help, but didn't lose any so it's okay.

2 Months to make £800 GBP then £800+ every month there after.

Atleast we've got trading to fall back on when times are hard, most haven't even got the vague hope of this.

Albchr, don't worry more news tomorrow odds are good we'll get some useable momentum and trends to abuse!!

I coughed up $150 today.... before I got smart enough to STOP under these conditons. I sure hope you're right buddy. A little movement at least provides the chance.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #151,539
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:28pm Jul 27, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting albchr
I coughed up $150 today.... before I got smart enough to STOP under these conditons. I sure hope you're right buddy. A little movement at least provides the chance.
$150's nothing.

Even trading M1 by the time a 5sma direction is established ( high odds off profit ), the spreads paid for and not possibly to get a perfect exit I coulda took +5pips multiple times today LOL


Not my scene though, too much stress for 5pips.

I've got Approx until the end of September so even if slow the next Month still just about survivable, hopefully eeeckkk some out.


This would be easier if we where millionaires, well we just wouldn't bother
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151,540
  • Jul 27, 2009 12:37pm Jul 27, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting gammase1
Come on, you must wake up and look at the "facts", see what is happening in various sections of the financial markets (genuine improvements in credit), in addition to your tightly formed opinion. You have to challenge your views, constantly.

Of course the financial markets are far from great. As I said, I remain very cautious on the outlook.

Cheers
I would love to see how the financial markets really are if mark to market is put back in force .

I know there is a perception that the financial markets are great and yes lending and interbank lending has got easier , which is awesome. However there is still 80,000 forclosures per month on residential properties..in fact last month was the highest on record ... how well covered was that in the news ? (aka 300 billion loss to banks per year... they do not have to report this if they are willing to hold asset till it is of value)

CIT crying for another 3 billion by mid August otherwise one of the largest commercial lenders will file for Chapter 11 (likely just another ploy for a cheap Goldman sachs buy out at the share holders expense)

Yes things have got better but we are not out of the woods yet.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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