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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #19,501
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:34am Jul 21, 2009 9:34am
just tried a long on gu...tight stop
  • #19,502
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:36am Jul 21, 2009 9:36am
Quoting terje
after the harami? Good job on that. There are a lot of false reversal signals on the 15m e/j up to that point.
I took a short after the 9:15 EST IB. If you didn't get in on that entry you could have taken a short after the 1hr bearish engulfing around134.00. If you didn't take that entry you could have taken the retest of the Ma's on the 15 min around 133.64 and if you didn't like that one you could have taken the retest of the 1hr 62 at 133.36. Which one did you take?
  • #19,503
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:41am Jul 21, 2009 9:41am
I didn't get any of it which is why I asked where your signal was. There were quite a few false ones up to that point, so how you managed to get it perfect, again, was interesting for me. Perhaps in time with learning EO's method I'll be more accurate. Thanks for the more detailed response, I see the points you mention except for the "retest of MAs around 13364". The only "retest" I see is a touch of the blue 5sma, if that counts.
'The past will always show us the future'
  • #19,504
  • Jul 21, 2009 9:56am Jul 21, 2009 9:56am
Hi Shilva

Sorry, not at my desk much this afternoon. Yep mine looked like that. A slippery red ski slope with the ramp at the bottom to crash and burn. Thats our ol slapper...

It seems Bum Bernanke has succeeded in driving the bears into the Down Jones at last. At least its moving...

Quoting Shilva
Hay Alcando.....or any of our British friends.....been trying to track your 4h candles. Is this perty much how your session went and how your 4h candles looks on the close?
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #19,505
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:02am Jul 21, 2009 10:02am
Quoting Shilva
just tried a long on gu...tight stop
Thanks Al always helps to keep an eye on what u guys are seeing!

just took a small loss on my long...if it doesn't do what i want her to quickly then I will not try to hold on to her.

Still think this 6400 area may hold but we will see, have a short running from earlier.
  • #19,506
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:07am Jul 21, 2009 10:07am
Yep my H4 is staring at 6335 as likely now.

Quoting Shilva
Thanks Al always helps to keep an eye on what u guys are seeing!

just took a small loss on my long...if it doesn't do what i want her to quickly then I will not try to hold on to her.

Still think this 6400 area may hold but we will see, have a short running from earlier.
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #19,507
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:11am Jul 21, 2009 10:11am
Quoting alcando
Hi Shilva

Sorry, not at my desk much this afternoon. Yep mine looked like that. A slippery red ski slope with the ramp at the bottom to crash and burn. Thats our ol slapper...

It seems Bum Bernanke has succeeded in driving the bears into the Down Jones at last. At least its moving...
Caterpiller had a dismal earnings report (may even close plants) and the financials are tanking also!

Little bit of reality is setting in....10 up days in a row is a stretch!
  • #19,508
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:16am Jul 21, 2009 10:16am
Exactly, Better than expected earnings... ie we cut the heads off the staff to feed to the shareholders.... Who did they think they were kidding... I have been shorting these Dow tops every day and the one day I decide to hold back it gets a case of tankeritous. Argh! I know where you going now Mr Dow...


Quoting Shilva
Caterpiller had a dismal earnings report (may even close plants) and the financials are tanking also!

Little bit of reality is setting in....10 up days in a row is a stretch!
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #19,509
  • Jul 21, 2009 11:23am Jul 21, 2009 11:23am
What is EO doing?? Where is he?
  • #19,510
  • Jul 21, 2009 11:30am Jul 21, 2009 11:30am
Quoting alcando
Exactly, Better than expected earnings... ie we cut the heads off the staff to feed to the shareholders.... Who did they think they were kidding... I have been shorting these Dow tops every day and the one day I decide to hold back it gets a case of tankeritous. Argh! I know where you going now Mr Dow...
I see it is our 1 year anniversary on ForexFactory this month.

I got u by 53 posts.

U remember Moe? From the cable thread this time last year.

"Where is Moe......Somebody go get MOE! "
  • #19,511
  • Jul 21, 2009 11:47am Jul 21, 2009 11:47am
Wow 1 year ago ...In fact I joined on the day cable fell from grace. I think I was trying to buy cable all the way to the bottom... and still trying to sell her all the way to the top...

A lot of the old geeza's from the thread disappeared. But I don't contribute in that hornets nest now. Like a bunch of drunk schoolkids with a sleeping teacher.

Looks like they are buying back these overpriced stocks again... These people have more money that sense. Did u get your long? I grabbed a small entry when she failed to break lower. Not holding my breath tho. Would be nice for that Trendline to get the respect she deserves..


Quoting Shilva
I see it is our 1 year anniversary on ForexFactory this month.

I got u by 53 posts.

U remember Moe? From the cable thread this time last year.

"Where is Moe......Somebody go get MOE! "
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #19,512
  • Jul 21, 2009 12:31pm Jul 21, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting alcando
Wow 1 year ago ...In fact I joined on the day cable fell from grace. I think I was trying to buy cable all the way to the bottom... and still trying to sell her all the way to the top...

A lot of the old geeza's from the thread disappeared. But I don't contribute in that hornets nest now. Like a bunch of drunk schoolkids with a sleeping teacher.

Looks like they are buying back these overpriced stocks again... These people have more money that sense. Did u get your long? I grabbed a small entry when she failed to break lower. Not...
Yup...sent 2 scouts out from around 6400.
First one came back dead as a doornail, quickly.............the second one is still heading north!
  • #19,513
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:06pm Jul 21, 2009 1:06pm
I didn't have my 3rd eye on the Mistress close enough today.

Around 350 pips to be had on that nice 200 pip move!

Breakout trade pattern worked well ic!

Here is the action on the 5m chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: july19090.JPG Size: 130 KB
  • #19,514
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:20pm Jul 21, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting Shilva
I didn't have my 3rd eye on the Mistress close enough today.

Around 350 pips to be had on that nice 200 pip move!

Breakout trade pattern worked well ic!

Here is the action on the 5m chart!
I rode her down and now I have taken her back up. I see your pattern on the 5 min. and there were some definite opportunities for a few smaller scalps on the way down.
  • #19,515
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:47pm Jul 21, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting PippiNole
I rode her down and now I have taken her back up. I see your pattern on the 5 min. and there were some definite opportunities for a few smaller scalps on the way down.
Yeah...i know u killed it today on the Mistress.

Whenever I see that pattern start to develop on 5m I will jump all over it. I takes volatility and has not been forming very often. When it does u can get her in the "short rows" several times in a couple hours.

I know some will even try to catch the scalps in the opposite direction but I just try to add to the trade in the direction she is heading. That 4th leg down failing to break lower so reverse also works well.

It is a nice bullet for the gun!
  • #19,516
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:56pm Jul 21, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Shilva
Yeah...i know u killed it today on the Mistress.

Whenever I see that pattern start to develop on 5m I will jump all over it. I takes volatility and has not been forming very often. When it does u can get her in the "short rows" several times in a couple hours.

I know some will even try to catch the scalps in the opposite direction but I just try to add to the trade in the direction she is heading. That 4th leg down failing to break lower so reverse also works well.

It is a nice bullet for the gun!
All those levels are in the area of possible entries for a short that I posted earlier today.
  • #19,517
  • Jul 21, 2009 2:25pm Jul 21, 2009 2:25pm
Hey guys, I hope you got some good trades in today... I was on the road for most of the day... only managed two trades.. from 6390 to 6480 and from 6400 now locked in and covered... I had a really messed up start to the asia/london session where I had 2 losses.. but that's how it is... subsequent trades were better...

I see double bottom on h4, h1 and m15...... Here's my view for the next hours...
Attached Image
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,518
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:53pm Jul 21, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Infinity
Hey guys, I hope you got some good trades in today... I was on the road for most of the day... only managed two trades.. from 6390 to 6480 and from 6400 now locked in and covered... I had a really messed up start to the asia/london session where I had 2 losses.. but that's how it is... subsequent trades were better...

I see double bottom on h4, h1 and m15...... Here's my view for the next hours...
this scenario is looking unlikely now..especially if h4 closes like this in 7 mins..
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #19,519
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:58pm Jul 21, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting Infinity
this scenario is looking unlikely now..especially if h4 closes like this in 7 mins..
We are stuck in the middle of the 4hr channel but I am short on her.
  • #19,520
  • Jul 21, 2009 5:06pm Jul 21, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting PippiNole
We are stuck in the middle of the 4hr channel but I am short on her.
I'm on the short bus myself now from 6420... I think 632x is reachable...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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