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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #184,341
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:04pm Jul 12, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting Bseegz28
Can you explain how you trade this? it is interesting


Search in the internet: Implied Volatillity and later i will explain
  • #184,342
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:13pm Jul 12, 2009 10:13pm
Quoting amed12
Search in the internet: Implied Volatillity and later i will explain
i think the main question is on what parameters are u basing your implied vol from. Option Contract, Time frame, Historical data, Mean/Drift component, liquidity premiums, spread......
  • #184,343
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:15pm Jul 12, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting ovaforty
Please don't blame YOUR stop losses on any broker.
Late and weak entries usually get stopped out.
Your broker did not place the trade in a weak position. You did.

Work on better entries.

100% right
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #184,344
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:20pm Jul 12, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting eulogy
i think the main question is on what parameters are u basing your implied vol from. Option contract, time frame, historical data, mean/drift component, liquidity premiums, spread......
ig markets

weekly charts

and black scholes calculator
  • #184,345
  • Edited 10:42pm Jul 12, 2009 10:24pm | Edited 10:42pm
I agree with you mate,,

im seeing 146.80 and 140.60 [fib50] as possible targets, before we spike up.. [70% im biased to DOWN side]

Also, if we bounce from here, this is what im waiting for... test the 150.20 [break up or down]


[Chart]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy1.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #184,346
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:27pm Jul 12, 2009 10:27pm
Quoting amed12
ig markets

weekly charts

and black scholes calculator
so in other words

a black box system
  • #184,347
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:47pm Jul 12, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting Eulogy
so in other words

a black box system
Black sholes calculator to see was is the Implied Vollatility for this week. How far he goes up or down
  • #184,348
  • Jul 12, 2009 10:59pm Jul 12, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting amed12
Black sholes calculator to see was is the Implied Vollatility for this week. How far he goes up or down
LOL.......

Black & Scholes is merely an indicator. Taken in its most principal terms the BS model is sorely lacking in that it assumes:

1. extremely deep liquidity
2. no spread
3. constant drift
4. perfect drift modelling
5. fixed time frames
6. no early exercise
7. Normally distributed returns

I'm sure there are others but there are your main ones.
throughout the mathematics/statistics community there have literally been thousands of different alterations in the formula to try account for its shortcomings. I just don't know if you are fully aware of what that calculator is calculating for you.
  • #184,349
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:05pm Jul 12, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting Eulogy
LOL.......

Black & Scholes is merely an indicator. Taken in its most principal terms the BS model is sorely lacking in that it assumes:

1. extremely deep liquidity
2. no spread
3. constant drift
4. perfect drift modelling
5. fixed time frames
6. no early exercise
7. Normally distributed returns

I'm sure there are others but there are your main ones.
throughout the mathematics/statistics community there have literally been thousands of different alterations in the formula to try account for its shortcomings. I just don't know if you are fully...

I know but in friday i tell you when i hit 140.00 or 160.00 but i prefered 140.00
  • #184,350
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:15pm Jul 12, 2009 11:15pm
FE 161.5 ????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBYEN 4.PNG Size: 16 KB
  • #184,351
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:17pm Jul 12, 2009 11:17pm
i still believe it..geppy can go.. 137.xx..
  • #184,352
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:23pm Jul 12, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting fising
i still believe it..geppy can go.. 137.xx..
i alos belive it will go more than 140.00
  • #184,353
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:31pm Jul 12, 2009 11:31pm
Quoting amed12
I know but in friday i tell you when i hit 140.00 or 160.00 but i prefered 140.00
B&S Implied volatility is ok to use as an indicator during carry trade times when swings are limited and relatively slow. what you need to watch out for are those black swan events that will never ever be captured by the model. Implied vol can say one thing but when dislocation happens, the actual unviewable volatility can just as well be over 100 times that.
  • #184,354
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:39pm Jul 12, 2009 11:39pm
Daily ES chart. Holds the key for Yen crosses this week. Currently testing last week's low. White line should be strong support, but if we stay below, then mini tank could be possible.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily es.gif Size: 24 KB


GY is bearish all day for me.
  • #184,355
  • Jul 12, 2009 11:56pm Jul 12, 2009 11:56pm
who's your broker UK? love to have the the ES charts available. thanks
  • #184,356
  • Jul 13, 2009 12:44am Jul 13, 2009 12:44am
if this is any indication

both EA and EN are showing risk aversion coming into the markets in bucketfuls.
  • #184,357
  • Jul 13, 2009 1:02am Jul 13, 2009 1:02am
I am long for 153.30-50...weird?
  • #184,358
  • Jul 13, 2009 1:17am Jul 13, 2009 1:17am
Quoting Dat7447
I am long for 153.30-50...weird?
a little bit
  • #184,359
  • Jul 13, 2009 1:38am Jul 13, 2009 1:38am
Quoting ovaforty
Please don't blame YOUR stop losses on any broker.
Late and weak entries usually get stopped out.
Your broker did not place the trade in a weak position. You did.

Work on better entries.


i know what you mean but i have turned my $500 to $15,000, in one year. i have been withdrawing every 2weeks so as for knowing what am doing, am pretty good at that.i have never lots more than 20% of my account. but that was just too much for me to be quiet abt. It was a meta4 malfunction and my other accounts made $3,000 profit from same trade,how does one reconcile that? Am not a novice, am not the best trader in the world and i must say i dont have the holy grail, but i make consistent $2000 everyday. so if u wanna say i was late or i was not sure of want i was doing, i'd say i dont drink and trade.
  • #184,360
  • Jul 13, 2009 1:53am Jul 13, 2009 1:53am
sell @ 148.00 take profit 147.80, stop loss 149.59.
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