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  • #117,001
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:59am Jul 1, 2009 10:59am
Quoting FX-Petra
Eur/CHF is just sitting there @ 1.52, playing chicken with the SNB. We will see if they step in on a move lower. If they do intervine, it will drive the E/U lower... or at least it did back on the 24th.
i rode uc down as insurance on my eu short..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,002
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:02am Jul 1, 2009 11:02am
Quoting egkid
Well In my view it one side of the story...

I'm not gonna say i'm expert i'm just 2y trader but My Techical and Fundamental met in same point.

Everything goes as US wants But US lose the balance and as soon as they think they control everything will lose much and find out No recovery

Just my view.
That why i sent many post from 1.3250 telling buy eur but all saying sell

I'm not try to prove anything i even closed my long becaue i'm not long experience trader like others was saying sell not buy.But i learn the lesson only my own view
  • #117,003
  • Edited 11:23am Jul 1, 2009 11:03am | Edited 11:23am
While we are on the subject of USDX, here are two daily charts - one candlestick and one line chart. Today's candle had exactly the same high as yesterday's candle. My line chart more clearly defines price action. It broke my trendline, went back and tested it and then continued on down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-1JUL-BAR.GIF Size: 57 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-1JUL-LINE.GIF Size: 54 KB


Doblece also kindly gave her analysis on my chart the other day:

"What I see on that USDX chart is a probable short term period of consolidation between 7950-8150, then down for wave 5 to retest 7800, break or bounce back for ABC correction to 8300 (middle-march support now resistance, and 50% retracement on long wave 3)."

It's at 79.56 at this moment so it's got to bounce here or it's probably gonna head for 78.00.

And Bemac also kindly added another perspective:

Attached Image
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #117,004
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:17am Jul 1, 2009 11:17am
Quoting FX-Petra
Eur/CHF is just sitting there @ 1.52, playing chicken with the SNB. We will see if they step in on a move lower. If they do intervine, it will drive the E/U lower... or at least it did back on the 24th.
Previous SNB moves protected 1.48, then 1.50. Do you expect another SNB intervention and at what level?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #117,005
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:23am Jul 1, 2009 11:23am
Quoting The Fool
Previous SNB moves protected 1.48, then 1.50. Do you expect another SNB intervention and at what level?
They hit it twice back on the 24th, at 1.50 and again at 1.52. Check out a five min. chart and you will see that the market senses caution below 1.52. No way to know when or if they will step in again. They did warn after the 24th that further action may be necessary.
  • #117,006
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:26am Jul 1, 2009 11:26am
Quoting The Fool
Previous SNB moves protected 1.48, then 1.50. Do you expect another SNB intervention and at what level?
1.52 is the 50fib to the pip of the move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf.jpg Size: 72 KB
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #117,007
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:28am Jul 1, 2009 11:28am
Quoting FX-Petra
They hit it twice back on the 24th, at 1.50 and again at 1.52. Check out a five min. chart and you will see that the market senses caution below 1.52. No way to know when or if they will step in again. They did warn after the 24th that further action may be necessary.
Previous pumps hit .54. So, you gonna play this breakout for a quick n easy 150 pips or so?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #117,008
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:32am Jul 1, 2009 11:32am
Quoting The Fool
Previous pumps hit .54. So, you gonna play this breakout for a quick n easy 150 pips or so?
I have a small buy order in @ 1.5190. It has not triggered yet. Playing around with Central Banks is dangerous territory--not matter your direction. Best left to hedge funds and Big Boy Banks on Wall st.
  • #117,009
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:35am Jul 1, 2009 11:35am
Quoting The Fool
Previous pumps hit .54. So, you gonna play this breakout for a quick n easy 150 pips or so?
It's not always guaranteed easy pips though. The RBNZ were intervening in 2008 so I thought, yeah, baby, I'll short that sucker and ride the RBNZ wave. Then they decided I wasn't worth helping out so it took me a month to get out of that trade and the profit I had made was eaten up by negative rollover ending in a slight loss Taught me a lesson
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #117,010
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:40am Jul 1, 2009 11:40am
Quoting Patience
It's not always guaranteed easy pips though. The RBNZ were intervening in 2008 so I thought, yeah, baby, I'll short that sucker and ride the RBNZ wave. Then they decided I wasn't worth helping out so it took me a month to get out of that trade and the profit I had made was eaten up by negative rollover ending in a slight loss Taught me a lesson
Thanks, all. Just curious. My breakout game is strictly babypips, although I have played these flags on E/U lately for some nice chunks. I have been reading around lately how playing these SNB interventions is the closest we have to a "sure thing" we have in forex these days. Typically, I hear "sure thing" and I'm headin for the door...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #117,011
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:47am Jul 1, 2009 11:47am
Quoting avi
my prediction 1.4043-1.4025-1.4011. ( for today.) predict for week 1.4057-1.3997 tp1 40-50 pips tp2 40-100 pips tp3 90-150 pips
week no. 1.4057 hit target1 40-50 pips , target2 40-100 pips ,hit target3 90-150 pips
  • #117,012
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:48am Jul 1, 2009 11:48am
Quoting FX-Petra
Eur/CHF is just sitting there @ 1.52, playing chicken with the SNB. We will see if they step in on a move lower. If they do intervine, it will drive the E/U lower... or at least it did back on the 24th.
I took a short position at 1.5243 on EUR/CHF up about 20 pips. Getting out as soon as we hit 1.5200. Trying to fight the SNB from weakening their currency is a losing battle in the end.


Also join in on the NFP discussion
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=179616
  • #117,013
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:48am Jul 1, 2009 11:48am
Quoting The Fool
Thanks, all. Just curious. My breakout game is strictly babypips, although I have played these flags on E/U lately for some nice chunks. I have been reading around lately how playing these SNB interventions is the closest we have to a "sure thing" we have in forex these days. Typically, I hear "sure thing" and I'm headin for the door...
If I was going to play with the SNB (and I am contemplating it), I'll only be looking to place a trade around the 1.5000/50 area (might place a few small trades scattered about there) but keeping in mind that they might be like the RBNZ and not help me out.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #117,014
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:49am Jul 1, 2009 11:49am
Quoting Platypus
I really don't see China alone raising to a superpower any time soon. they have too many fundamental problems to solve before it. In a certain way China looks like Russia by the time they called themselfs CCCP....a lot of noise but at the end of the day their fortress was built in sand. You can hear a lot of noise from countries like India, Brazil etc....but the botton line is that they still have a long way to go in terms of internal disfunctions to correct before the world agrees to follow them.
Of course China wont become superpower overnight, but it will happen in the next 10 years. China has had average 7-8% GDP growt over the last 30 years and it will probably continue to develop fast. It needs to reach the income per capita of Mexico or Turkey to be on par with US in terms of total GDP.
As for USSR, it was never economically strong and I dont hear any noise from countries like Brazil, unless its a deal with China.

Anyway, I am not a fan of China by any means but I say what I see.
  • #117,015
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:51am Jul 1, 2009 11:51am
Quote
I have a small buy order in @ 1.5190

Did you mean 4190 FX-Petra??
  • #117,016
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:52am Jul 1, 2009 11:52am
Quoting gatorinla
the biggest thorn in the side of the u.s. is oil.. the same thorn china has while trying to develope..india does not have this thorn..it has alumia, copper, oil, coal. iron. nuclear, ng, education and labor...and one of the worlds largest refineries with room to expand.. dont count them out..china has a problem..
Curious as to why your opinion on why India won't have the same oil thorn as China? Are you thinking they'll start to use other resources as means of energy?


Also visit tomorrow's NFP thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=179616
  • #117,017
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:54am Jul 1, 2009 11:54am
Quoting woodlybog
Did you mean 4190 FX-Petra??
We were talking about a Eur/Chf entry, not E/U.
  • #117,018
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:59am Jul 1, 2009 11:59am
Man crazy ranging today fellas. I got sucked into it. Lost 130+ pips in a trade this is why its good to stay out during month end, week end. Just not worth it
  • #117,019
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:03pm Jul 1, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting vinesh2
Man crazy ranging today fellas. I got sucked into it. Lost 130+ pips in a trade this is why its good to stay out during month end, week end. Just not worth it
Good to see you vinesh. Don't sweat them pips. you'll get em back. Stay frosty.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #117,020
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:03pm Jul 1, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting vinesh2
Man crazy ranging today fellas. I got sucked into it. Lost 130+ pips in a trade this is why its good to stay out during month end, week end. Just not worth it
lol. hi v.
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