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Bill Williams Profitunity Chaos Trading

  • #101
  • Jun 22, 2009 10:22pm Jun 22, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting donfriday
i am looking for buy set up on 15tf bullish divergence to retrace before we break 154.. target is 156 ...
5tf showing buyers...

okay now PA touch the 154 base on my previous analysis i put a buy at 154.93 lock in 2 pips 154.95.. target 156 again...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #102
  • Jun 23, 2009 2:37am Jun 23, 2009 2:37am
Good Morning,

Well a good surprise when I woke up this morning the last micro lot I kept open yesterday was in large progress.

A recap for Monday 22 June
Short 0.3 lots @ 157.56
0.1 lot @ +50
0.1 lot @ +100
0.1 lot @ +50 SL secured and still open

For today my views are
W1 - It seems we started a down correction - but we have to be cautious as we are only at the beginning of the second day
D1 - The first resistance area is holding at 158.7
5 - 154.95 - A daily below will open the way down to the 151.50 area
H4 - H4 already close once below but the current looks like reversing the movement or pause the down trend
H1 - Shows sign of possible reversal the break of 155.50 would be the sign of a retracement to 156.37 and 156.99
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos w1.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos d1.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos 4h.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos 1h.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #103
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:09am Jun 23, 2009 3:09am
Quoting biker883
Good Morning,

Well a good surprise when I woke up this morning the last micro lot I kept open yesterday was in large progress.

A recap for Monday 22 June
Short 0.3 lots @ 157.56
0.1 lot @ +50
0.1 lot @ +100
0.1 lot @ +50 SL secured and still open

For today my views are
W1 - It seems we started a down correction - but we have to be cautious as we are only at the beginning of the second day
D1 - The first resistance area is holding at 158.7
5 - 154.95 - A daily below will open the way down to the 151.50 area
H4 - H4 already close once below...


very well said analysis.....thanks for the support.....1h and 4hr need to break the down fractal for the Weekly corrective range gator.. so we could see 147....we need a low on 4hrs previous breakout so price should test 152 today in my opinion ......but kinda risky to short now till 154.15 ot 10...i put sell stop there..check it out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 23 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #104
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:35am Jun 23, 2009 3:35am
On M30 - Balance line order triggered (Chaos version 1)

Short 0.1 lot @ 154.54 SL 155.11
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos m30.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #105
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:43am Jun 23, 2009 3:43am
Quoting biker883
On M30 - Balance line order triggered (Chaos version 1)

Short 0.1 lot @ 154.54 SL 155.11

that was a masive pull back...are u still on demo or live?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #106
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:54am Jun 23, 2009 3:54am
Quoting donfriday
that was a masive pull back...are u still on demo or live?

Demo, until I am not 100 % confident I will not risk real money.

I intent to start with 25000 €ur, so there is no place for hesitation.
  • #107
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:59am Jun 23, 2009 3:59am
Quoting biker883
Demo, until I am not 100 % confident I will not risk real money.

I intent to start with 25000 €ur, so there is no place for hesitation.
good plan.....u will make it..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #108
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:29am Jun 23, 2009 4:29am
Quoting donfriday
good plan.....u will make it..

can u see what 15tf is biulding ? they have manipulate this thing today..
whats u think?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #109
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:37am Jun 23, 2009 5:37am
Short 0.1 lot @ 154.54 SL 155.11[/quote]
Well my stop loss was hit @ 155.17 (I moved it a little just in case)

So -63 pip

I move down my remaining SL to 156.03 to compensate my loss and protect equity

10H00 bar on H1 was a possible Wiseman 1 signal - but the 11H00 did not much confirm it completely and just finished generating a dogi ( I like to call them a spade and usually they show the direction of the next move

Effectively 10 minutes after the close it seems that we are heading north

We also had 3 reversal signs in the circle
1 was a nearly perfect engulfing candle
2 was a piercing line
3 was a hammer

H4 - we having now a dogi bar that show hesitation in the down trend on 19 June - So we are probably on a way back to the 50 % retracement at 156.82

So I Would buy above 155.60 which is the buy above the second higher candle preceding the balance signal candle (3) SL should be at 154.04
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos 4h.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chaos 1h.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #110
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:30am Jun 23, 2009 6:30am
Quoting biker883
Short 0.1 lot @ 154.54 SL 155.11
Well my stop loss was hit @ 155.17 (I moved it a little just in case)

So -63 pip

I move down my remaining SL to 156.03 to compensate my loss and protect equity

10H00 bar on H1 was a possible Wiseman 1 signal - but the 11H00 did not much confirm it completely and just finished generating a dogi ( I like to call them a spade and usually they show the direction of the next move

Effectively 10 minutes after the close it seems that we are heading north

We also had 3 reversal signs in the circle
1 was a nearly perfect engulfing candle
2 was a piercing line
3 was a hammer

H4 - we having now a dogi bar that show hesitation in the down trend on 19 June - So we are probably on a way back to the 50 % retracement at 156.82

So I Would buy above 155.60 which is the buy above the second higher candle preceding the balance signal candle (3) SL should be at 154.04[/quote]


i saw that..now 1hr need to show the 3leg fractal...to bad for me today i miss the trade...i added some position that was why.....let see how it play..
u are doing well now and can anayls better than i do..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #111
  • Jun 23, 2009 8:29am Jun 23, 2009 8:29am
Quoting Sonofsin5
What a day for the markets. I cant see Asia liking what happened today. I'll look to sell on a rally post Tokyo open. I like to keep the charts simple as you can tell.
My target reached in london session. ECB talking the eur up and impacting the rest of the markets right now. Have to see how wall street reacts to dictate the trading day.
  • #112
  • Jun 23, 2009 8:35am Jun 23, 2009 8:35am
Quoting Sonofsin5
My target reached in london session. ECB talking the eur up and impacting the rest of the markets right now. Have to see how wall street reacts to dictate the trading day.

i dont check wall street lately. i use to in the past but i stop. next year i will see if i can come back to dow jones future, gold and oil...
right now i base on GJ or GU....sometime EU.....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #113
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:20am Jun 23, 2009 9:20am
A minute after my last post I took a long

Buy 0.3 lots @ 155.67 -

and effectively price touched the 50% retracement at 156.80

I wanted to TP for 0.1 lot at 50 pips but missed it and the next time I watched it was around 85-90 so I decided to lock 50 pips ( I realised now I miscalculated but 10 pips) and keep the position open and the other 2 lots were moved at BE +1.

For the last hour price travelled between the 50% and 38.2% retracement lines and just broke while I am writing the 38.2% and taking my SL on the first lot (+40 pips).

Price action goes faster then my writing and I can't cope with writing and checking the graph on top as I am at work I have got to be careful.

I could have taken 150 pips, ad finally got 42 at least, no loss, not to bad for my first 3 trades in chaos.
  • #114
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:32am Jun 23, 2009 9:32am
Hello DonFriday,I thought that the macd 5,35,5 was supposed to go along with this method according to his rules.It is supposed to be the same movement of the elliot wave or something,read that in stocks & commodities awhile back.I do use the alligator but just for confirmation.sma 6,46 and macd 5,35,5 are working well also on the 15tf first then look at the 5min tf.many pips to ya!!!!!!!
  • #115
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:49am Jun 23, 2009 9:49am
Quoting monikroc
Hello DonFriday,I thought that the macd 5,35,5 was supposed to go along with this method according to his rules.It is supposed to be the same movement of the elliot wave or something,read that in stocks & commodities awhile back.I do use the alligator but just for confirmation.sma 6,46 and macd 5,35,5 are working well also on the 15tf first then look at the 5min tf.many pips to ya!!!!!!!
thanks for your contribution ...as u know indi dont make the entry themself u trader need to decide with you own phys with ur trading experience...
we use the default settings on the new edition of the chaos ..what i do with chaos is to spot my entry on 5 or 15 tf, divergence bar, corrective and anagulation..
macd is a great indi but i dont use it much on mt4 than esignal ...
u are welcome and thanks for ur opinion well someone might try it out if it work for them but the template of the bill williams is superb my mate bikers is doing well on this method and i hope some newbie will demo it before live biker is still on demo but he will decide what to do when his confortable..
welcome and hope to see u again..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #116
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:50am Jun 23, 2009 9:50am
Quoting biker883
A minute after my last post I took a long

Buy 0.3 lots @ 155.67 -

and effectively price touched the 50% retracement at 156.80

I wanted to TP for 0.1 lot at 50 pips but missed it and the next time I watched it was around 85-90 so I decided to lock 50 pips ( I realised now I miscalculated but 10 pips) and keep the position open and the other 2 lots were moved at BE +1.

For the last hour price travelled between the 50% and 38.2% retracement lines and just broke while I am writing the 38.2% and taking my SL on the first lot (+40 pips).

Price...

I like this trade, although I would have waited a little longer to take it. I am looking at a long if we can get to 155 or sub that price. Should be a fun volitile day. Stops for days like today I set at the Red line in the gators mouth, keeps you in the trend very well.
  • #117
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:58am Jun 23, 2009 9:58am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I like this trade, although I would have waited a little longer to take it. I am looking at a long if we can get to 155 or sub that price. Should be a fun volitile day. Stops for days like today I set at the Red line in the gators mouth, keeps you in the trend very well.
..


Good work mate...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #118
  • Jun 23, 2009 10:23am Jun 23, 2009 10:23am
the down move is not over at long as price below gator mouth ....this look like a possible break to the down side overnight looking at the 4hrs ..i am looking for a buy only if it break 38.2% to test 158 again...
i place another sell stop order below todays low on 20pips away this should open the room for 150 if it broken ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gif Size: 24 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #119
  • Jun 23, 2009 10:37am Jun 23, 2009 10:37am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I like this trade, although I would have waited a little longer to take it. I am looking at a long if we can get to 155 or sub that price. Should be a fun volitile day. Stops for days like today I set at the Red line in the gators mouth, keeps you in the trend very well.
Price went just below 155 and boom, exploded up. I couldnt get in to this move because it was too fast but mabye next time I can be quicker on the draw.
  • #120
  • Jun 23, 2009 11:12am Jun 23, 2009 11:12am
I was writing and boom - my mozilla blew up and I lost my message-

It was to say
I had taken a short at 155.52 and I was able to close 0.1 lot at 50pips profit and then price reversed and shoot up finally it took the stop that was moved to 20pips- so at the end a 10pips gain - better then nothing.

Questions for sonofsin5:

What made you thought that price would bounce from 155 level?
Why have you not set up a pending buy limit order catch the move with a reasonable SL?
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