Do you still believe in the perfect trading system? | Page 7 | Forex Factory

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Do you still believe in the perfect trading system?

  • #121
  • Jun 20, 2009 6:43am Jun 20, 2009 6:43am
Quoting Rastaman
Shite serves a purpose of blowing off steam from trading those sideways moving prices.

Ok, no more!
Markets tend to move "sideways" a lot, maybe a little study on how to trade those markets is in order?
  • #122
  • Edited 7:43am Jun 20, 2009 7:23am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting clockwork71
Newbies could also lose money following the advice of another newbie, who can't be bothered with paltry returns that are double some of the best traders in the world.

This is not a dick measuring contest.
I've never advised anyone new to trading to risk over 1-2% until they get their trading down. Also if you are making regular profits then that all that matters, if it 1% 5% 10% or whatever. I personally want to try and get higher returns maybe I will not achieve that but its my decision.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #123
  • Jun 21, 2009 2:07am Jun 21, 2009 2:07am
Quoting clockwork71
Newbies could also lose money following the advice of another newbie, who can't be bothered with paltry returns that are double some of the best traders in the world.

This is not a dick measuring contest.
Well said, Chris.
But I'm afraid that any thread with "Holy Grail" in the title will inevitably lead to performance being discussed, and then flies being unzipped.

In the good old days of FF, any thread with HG in the title automatically got moved to the Rookie section. Apparently that's no longer the case. LOL.
  • #124
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:11am Jun 21, 2009 3:11am
Quoting clockwork71
Markets tend to move "sideways" a lot, maybe a little study on how to trade those markets is in order?
Yes clocky , I agree, but price goes up or down or stops. I was just winding up the girls in this thread.
And, I already know how to trade a ranging market from scalping the M15 & M30.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #125
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:31am Jun 21, 2009 3:31am
Quoting Rastaman
Yes clocky , I agree, but price goes up or down or stops. I was just winding up the girls in this thread.
And, I already know how to trade a ranging market from scalping the M15 & M30.
An old post by my friend regarding this issue just for fun:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14806

  • #126
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:55am Jun 21, 2009 3:55am
Holy Grails does exist, but not in the fashion most people refer to.
There are traders (I know several in person) that achieve great results using a simple system, over and over again. Some have done so for several years, so it is beyond statistical doubt.

But...
Most novices at trading think that it is actually possible to win 100% of your trades, and therefore they expect that their 'holy grail' will win 100%. They are very disappointed when it doesn't work this way.

Once you understand that trading is a probabilistic game, and what's important is not winning many trades but having a positive expectancy, you realize that holy grails exist. I can give you a holy grail right now: choose any pattern you want (Double Top, for ex.), and trade pullback to its neckline. You will create profits consistently.

The drawback is you have to be disciplined, and enter ONLY these patterns. You may have weeks without a trade, but once you do enter you have high win-rate with reasonable Risk:Reward ratio.
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  • #127
  • Jun 21, 2009 10:10am Jun 21, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Rastaman
Yes clocky , I agree, but price goes up or down or stops. I was just winding up the girls in this thread.
And, I already know how to trade a ranging market from scalping the M15 & M30.
Hahahahahaha sure you were
  • #128
  • Jun 21, 2009 10:48am Jun 21, 2009 10:48am
I like to believe the holy grail is based on the indivdual trader on how he/she acheive profitability on how they see and trade the market. What the holy grail is not, is an indicator or a trading strategy or system.
  • #129
  • Jun 21, 2009 10:50am Jun 21, 2009 10:50am
Quoting M256
Holy Grails does exist, but not in the fashion most people refer to.
There are traders (I know several in person) that achieve great results using a simple system, over and over again. Some have done so for several years, so it is beyond statistical doubt.

But...
Most novices at trading think that it is actually possible to win 100% of your trades, and therefore they expect that their 'holy grail' will win 100%. They are very disappointed when it doesn't work this way.

Once you understand that trading is a probabilistic...
Well said M!
  • #130
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:09pm Jun 24, 2009 11:09pm
Yeah, I do. Mainly because it's not just one system, but a mindset that you develop that over time allows you to trade confidently, knowing with a database of previously tested, forward traded, live results under your belt that says, "Yes!" this works for me over any situation. Up, down, sideways, whipsaws, all can (MUST) be overcome to a level that you are profiting over time more than you are losing under all circumstances (save total financial collapse - which even that you should be prepared for if you have the right mindset).

Just my 2 pips.

-- Twitch
  • #131
  • Jun 28, 2009 12:32am Jun 28, 2009 12:32am
if u ask me, i say "yes". i truly believe there is holy grail in the forex universe. but of course it still require some effort. it may require hundred of hours of backtesting..... and optimization
  • #132
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:21am Jul 1, 2009 4:21am
Quoting john123x
if u ask me, i say "yes". i truly believe there is holy grail in the forex universe. but of course it still require some effort. it may require hundred of hours of backtesting..... and optimization
John, I would respectfully caution anyone from engaging in heavy backtesting and optimization. No matter how many prospectus and disclosure documents from funds state that "past performance is not indicative of future returns," people still look at the fact that a strategy worked in the past and believe it will continue, when logically there is no reason for it to continue. The only logical conclusion you could obtain is if it doesn't work over time then it probably won't work from thereon. I would advise looking at whether the strategy inherently makes sense or not as a primary gauge (just as if you are looking at the way a company does business before investing in it). Optimization is a very dangerous game and there is a fine line between developing a good strategy and curve-fitting.

Best of luck, John

Kris
  • #133
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:56pm Jul 1, 2009 5:56pm
Yes, there is a Holy Grail, but it has nothing to do with rules or mechanical setups. When I first started trading I went down that path - rules, optimizations, systems, etc.

Then eventually I came to the realization that it was all about understanding what was happening in the moment - at the right edge of the chart, and simply going with that. It amazes me now how in the beginning I was doing everything EXCEPT trading - focusing on rules, indicators, basically I was just ignoring what the price was doing in the moment, which was the exact wrong thing to do. Intuition and acceptance of what's currently happening has a lot to do with it.

And money management also has a lot to do with it as well. Just reading on this site a lot of people talk about risking 1-2% per trade. Maybe that's acceptable when you're learning, but if you're consistent you should be doing 5-10 times that, or you'll never make money. Personally, I sit down and have five trading "sessions" per week. In each of those 5, I either lose 13% of my current account equity or make roughly 72% (5.5 R/R). That's per session. If I lose all 5 sessions my total account is cut in half. If I win one of the five it's about break-even, 2 (which is my goal) is roughly a 100% return, and if I happen to get all 5 sessions nailed that's about a 1500% return. So that's my money management.
  • #134
  • Jul 1, 2009 6:17pm Jul 1, 2009 6:17pm
Lol, you are a real trader!

(and i'm not joking)
  • #135
  • Jul 1, 2009 6:33pm Jul 1, 2009 6:33pm
when Holy Grail comes to my mind, 100% wins is what i think... so, i have to vote No. same set-up yesterday and today may not yield the same result, so there is no Holy Grail in TRADING STRATEGY alone.

Although, some consider the combination of hard work, efficient trading strategy, and money management as the Holy Grail... I call it Job-Well-Done.

BTW, nicely said, M256.
  • #136
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:47pm Jul 1, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting tunera
Lol, you are a real trader!

(and i'm not joking)
Thanks...although I'm not sure what a "real trader" is. I prefer to think of myself as a student, always learning and getting better.

...

And to me, "Holy Grail" means being able to hit my trading goals.
  • #137
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:26pm Jul 1, 2009 11:26pm
It is individual specific and depends on what definition one is using. I strongly believe we all find what we are looking for in the markets.

Holy Grail in trading....technically speaking, No. Fundamentally speaking, YES.

Happy trading all.

Z
  • #138
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:23am Jul 2, 2009 1:23am
My Holy Grail....lol...at the moment anyway
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  • #139
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:36am Jul 2, 2009 1:36am
Quoting usdivers
My Holy Grail....lol...at the moment anyway

Smooth curve...

so you used 100 trades to increase your balance by 18.44% - that is an average gain per trade of 0.1844% (or approx $9).

what is your average loss size?

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #140
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:42am Jul 2, 2009 1:42am
Quoting daytrading
Smooth curve...

so you used 100 trades to increase your balance by 18.44% - that is an average gain per trade of 0.1844% (or approx $9).

what is your average loss size?

regards
daytrading
The EA I am using has automatic money management, this account started with $5000 USD, so the EA will trade 5 mini contracts, when it gets close to $6000 USD it will change to 6 mini and so on...
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