Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

here's what I see.

http://i44.tinypic.com/6749jt.png

http://i41.tinypic.com/20k1uuv.png

I got stopped out of my long trade for a 100-pip profit. Had I moved my TSL to the pip like Jacko does I would've made more pips. However, I am fine with what I made since I was going for bigger gains. No regrets and I'll move it in a similar manner on my next trade. That's partly what got me in the first place when others got stopped out for a loss on their A-H trade.

I also noticed that the market moved to my current 4H trendline, pierced but came right back up again. It is basically hugging that trendline, which seems to be serving as support. It's the same support trendline we've been using for the past couple weeks. The market might be ranging but it appears to me that it still has a LONG bias more so than a short one.

This is in response to one of Low's post where he/she was waiting for EURUSD to get to 1.36. While I don't think it is likely, it is NOT far from out of the realm of possibility. Looking at my weekly chart I can imagine a 50% fib retracement to that level. The red TL in the attached chart is the same TL that is providing support on the 4H and Daily. Notice how it is above the the most recent weekly candle. Also note the bearish weekly candle from last week. I'll keep a watchful eye with a LONG bias until I see more evidence of further retracement.

EDIT: Revised the post to read "it is NOT far from out of the realm of possibility", when I originally wrote "it is far from out of the realm of possibility." IN any case, I meant it is possible but la ess than 50% chance.

Thanks for your analysis RR, however I would like to clarify my view.

If we start from the perspective that the trend is up, then as per Jacko's method, we should be looking to go long, at the 50% fib, and preferably in conjunction with a round #.

The problem I am having, is that 1.3600 is the next best opportunity to go both long, and coincide with the 50 fib. If we use swing fibs to locate an entry, the entry is biased short, as can be seen here, when price consolidated around the 50, pierced the 61.8 and headed south again.

http://i41.tinypic.com/8y6ntf.png

So my conundrum is that the swing fib 50 only gives me short entries (countertrend), and the only fib 50 that gives me a certified long entry (trend) is the 1.3600 region.

For the sake of experiment, I also drew fibs from the HH, to the next LL, on May 16th, which fits better with your expectations, but I worry about curve-fitting the data points to support my pre-defined conclusions.

2 weeks ago I did state that there would likely be short-term long opportunities off of the various daily fib levels as price made its way down to the 50, and this seems to be accurate thus far, but.....this is trading and anything can happen.

Anyways, forgive the length of my post, it's just one of many possible views, of which time and price will be the ultimate arbiters.

happy trading.

On a slightly different topic, it seems Jacko's counter-trend method was more or less abandoned on this thread, because it didn't provide the trend-backstop that makes the AH deployment successful.

I was thinking that if you kept all the existing rules for the AH trade, but reversed its directional bias if you're taking a counter-trend trade, it may just give us back our pips.


Any thoughts/criticisms are welcome.

Low, I revised my post above yours. See the edit as I meant that a further retracement is possible but a little less than 50%. It was poorly written to begin with. Sorry about that.

My 2p's worth...

Daily chart...

http://i39.tinypic.com/2d2i04p.jpg

4H chart...

http://i40.tinypic.com/vomw5h.jpg

I don't trade off the hourly, but sometimes it can confirm the S/R levels from the higher timeframes...

http://i40.tinypic.com/2e185e9.jpg

I'll be entering a long at te bottom of the triangle (small position) and if this is broken I'll be looking for a bonce of the stronger support area on the 4H with both stops 25 pips below this area.

Fundamentally, market is being driven by risk sentiment and their is cases for both bullish / bearish USD hence why we have some choppy action...retail sales out later, not expecting much affect from this, more any wider macro economic news...

Lovejoy, I love your charts and your analysis. Hopefully we'll get some news induced movement today around NY open.

Thanks, just looked at price and the 1.4050 is holding up as resistance for the time being and the price is slowly drifting down...I'm waiting for some decent price action before entering. It has the potential of making a decent move upon some economic releases and so I'm looking for a decent move towards the 1.3800 area for a decent position long.

Yes, lovely charts lovejoy.

Lovejoy, the bottom part of the triangle in your 4H coincides with my 4H TL (same line). This morning's move at the start of NY session is another indicator to me that line is significant. I'm also starting to think the 4H TL you've drawn above that line is also significant as far as resistance. Note the range between those lines in the past couple of days not to mention the symmetrical triangle on your chart.

Fyi, due to my long bias and a bounce off my 4H TL, I took a LONG at 1.3975. I wanted to take it at 1.3950 but couldn't pull the trigger at the time. Almost missed it at 1.3975 as well. I've moved it to lock in a 50-pip profit due to the currency ranging the past couple days. If it breaks out of that triangle we could have more confidence in the uptrend, otherwise it might range back down to about the 4H support TL. Not much major news on the horizon for today and tomorrow. If it doesn't break out in US afternoon session today we might have to wait until next week. Once again, just my $0.02.

http://i39.tinypic.com/2mm7e2v.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/e5s8oz.jpg

Looks like a good trade that one! Wish the price would show some direction and momentum...looks like it is trying to break the triangle on the upside, but does not look like there will be a decent trading opportunity this week

My sentiments exactly. I'm wondering if I should close out my trade or move up my SL to bag more pips. I have little confidence we'll see a decisive break of that triangle this week.

By the way, my chart shows the top part of your triangle as resistance line. I basically have the same triangle you have except mine are S+R TLines.

If it were me I would have moved my stop up to just under the last level of known support which for me is at the 1.4050 area in the middle of the triangle. It is heading south now as the triangle resistance appears to hold.

It could go back to 1.4050 and then head back up, if it did I would put a trailing stop in place say 30-40 pips...but that's just me.

Can you post your chart?

See the attached H4 chart.

I closed out at 1.4095. It's since gone as high as 1.4111, but struggling. I've actually posted in Epilogue's journal as I am trading similar to his modified version of this method.

Good evening,
I am looking for a Trader based in London that will be willing to let me watch them trade as I am a rookie who hasnt seen a Live trade. I am on Jacko's Group, please help.

take a trip into London and visit the offices of a few brokers. Ask them to show you their platforms and let you see some live trades with their dealers in the back offices.

I haven't taken a trade this week yet, but it looks like some of those big boys have the same TL.

This was drawn before it was broken last week.

http://i42.tinypic.com/33x7tzt.png

Low would you please post another copy of your chart except this time zoom out so that more bars are shown?

Thanks.

http://i40.tinypic.com/5n4oyo.png