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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,081
  • May 14, 2009 11:48am May 14, 2009 11:48am
Quoting datogio
Is not it a rising wedge? in downtrend that's a continuation pattern as i know
Could be that I am wrong for sure
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #30,082
  • May 14, 2009 12:11pm May 14, 2009 12:11pm
Folks in the AUDUSD short off the BEOB, its not broken yet, but look at the strong PPZ above, should repel price.
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Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,083
  • Edited 3:03pm May 14, 2009 12:38pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting markmm
Some breakout patterns on the daily to watch? Im just starting to look at these wonder if there are valid?
this is just my opinion. but i still prefer the lower TL drawn from the dec.low for the gb/chf as the more significant.
regarding the aud/cad i also prefere the longer TLs although the triangle looks better on the 4h chart i think it would be a trendline break rather than a pattern break. a longer term pattern seems to be developing though.
again jus my 2ps worth.
cheers
jon
EDIT:to the best of my knowlage the rising upper TL on the aussie pattern is what makes it a potential rising wedge and bearish.. the gb/chf is a potential triangle and neutral.
EDIT: changed the last chart. after further analysis i have decided it was drawn incorrectly,i think it should be drawn as a potential ascending triangle. (typically a continuation pattern) sos its getting late here in eu.
remember these are not valid untill they are broken
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,084
  • May 14, 2009 12:55pm May 14, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting markmm
Wow that was quick you almost replied before the page reloaded! hehe
Yeah, Mike will do that sometimes. It's creepy...

And the GBPCHF among a few others, are looking like some good breakout trades are coming soon.
I'm also keeping an eye on EUGBP as it's been winding up this week and ending as an I4B today.
USCHF also looks like something will happen soon.

Tom
  • #30,085
  • May 14, 2009 1:58pm May 14, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting moneybags
Yeah, Mike will do that sometimes. It's creepy...


Tom
lets see if he is as fast on his new iphone????
those buggers can be a bit tricky to type on at first..
  • #30,086
  • Edited 2:23pm May 14, 2009 2:10pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting jarroo
This is how we roll.
Well, this is how it rolled out for me.

Once Price broke .7500 my stop loss was places above the previous bar Low. The 30 to 40 pip stop loss that I use is not a hard and fast rule, it always depends on the quality and strength of the setup. (I catagorized this Daily Aud/Usd BEOB as very high.) And placing stop losses at common sense S/R levels within the PA setup itself. I believed that the previous bar Low (.7560) had a confluence of strentgh (150ema, 61.8 fib) and adjusted my position size according (65pips).

Price drew down about -40 pips and then went positive about +35 pips, after the break. I grabbed 18 pips on the 1st half and out on the 2nd half at break even.

Does this setup still have great potential to play out successfully? Absolutely. Placing a stop loss above this BEOB would be the correct placement. This is a high quailty PA setup imo and the true potential of this setup is far from over.

Are you looking to re-enter the setup at a retrace since it already broke?
Yes. If the 4 hour/Daily presents a clear high quality PA bearish setup I will re-enter.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,087
  • May 14, 2009 2:29pm May 14, 2009 2:29pm
Nice trading, Jim.

I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,088
  • May 14, 2009 2:33pm May 14, 2009 2:33pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
jarroo

excited to see your comment on this setup. initially I went short at the break of low with 1/10 of my position to test, and in. then, I built confidence to put the rest at the 50% ret of the BEOB, that is 0.7600. now, I am in for the entire position. I did that coz I to be honest didn't have the judgement to the quality of this setup, totally a blind play. however, after seeing your below comment, I am more confident that there probably will be a good run to come in one day or so.



edit. stoploss always at the top of the setup for both

Quoting jarroo
Well, this is how it rolled out for me.

Once Price broke .7500 my stop loss was places above the previous bar Low. The 30 to 40 pip stop loss that I use is not a hard and fast rule, it always depends on the quality and strength of the setup. (I catagorized this Daily Aud/Usd BEOB as very high.) And placing stop losses at common sense S/R levels within the PA setup itself. I believed that the previous bar Low (.7560) had a confluence of strentgh (150ema, 61.8 fib) and adjusted my position size according (65pips).

Price drew down about -40 pips...
  • #30,089
  • May 14, 2009 2:34pm May 14, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting markmm
Nice trading, Jim.

I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?
300% return is around 12% a month I think compounding. I might be off there.

Certainly not something I can do as I'm a newb but it doesn't seem impossible, just much higher risk per trade.
  • #30,090
  • May 14, 2009 2:42pm May 14, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting markmm
Nice trading, Jim.

I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?
That's reasonable.
Everyone has their own comfort zone where they can chuf along at.

400%-%500 a year? Sure people can do that. But, that one's un-reasonable. lol

The last you want to do is chain yourself to any expectations.

Just be a good disciplined trader. That's all.
Your ROI will improve over time as a side affect.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,091
  • May 14, 2009 2:45pm May 14, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting Denarii
300% return is around 12% a month I think compounding. I might be off there.

Certainly not something I can do as I'm a newb but it doesn't seem impossible, just much higher risk per trade.
It's also unlikely to be on a very large account. The larger you go the more you actually affect the market you are trading. The larger the chance you can actually miss out on fills etc.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,092
  • May 14, 2009 2:51pm May 14, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting rustyjeff
lets see if he is as fast on his new iphone????
those buggers can be a bit tricky to type on at first..
LOL i got it down quick! If only I could post charts easily from it
  • #30,093
  • May 14, 2009 2:53pm May 14, 2009 2:53pm
Thanks bunny,

What im looking at is a 5 and 10 year plan, I would like to by end of year 5-6 to be in a position to trade full time having built up my account to a good amount (without drawing from it). Just looking at rough figures. Im also not going to try and chase a monthly target I will just trade my method and look at the result.
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,094
  • May 14, 2009 3:17pm May 14, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting jarroo
Well, this is how it rolled out for me.

Once Price broke .7500 my stop loss was places above the previous bar Low. The 30 to 40 pip stop loss that I use is not a hard and fast rule, it always depends on the quality and strength of the setup. (I catagorized this Daily Aud/Usd BEOB as very high.) And placing stop losses at common sense S/R levels within the PA setup itself. I believed that the previous bar Low (.7560) had a confluence of strentgh (150ema, 61.8 fib) and adjusted my position size according (65pips).

Price drew down about -40 pips...
Nice commentary. My SL is above the BEOB, so still in. I like that today's peak stopped at the May 7th high. Still lots of potential here.
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"A is A"
  • #30,095
  • Edited 3:40pm May 14, 2009 3:38pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting catiron
Nice commentary. My SL is above the BEOB, so still in. I like that today's peak stopped at the May 7th high. Still lots of potential here.
looks like a 'Racs favorite' entry, but who knows. we have had that large daily BEOB yesterday, now we have had a 50/61% retracement of that bar, which also coincides short term resistance at the May 7 Highs around 0.7615.
Attached Image
  • #30,096
  • May 14, 2009 4:35pm May 14, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting 4fun
Just going over the charts on a lazy Sat am and couldnt help but notice this head&shoulder setup I know recent trend is up this weeks candle bearish,look at thurs & friday day candle combined gives a bear pin i am not saying this is a trend changer but worth taking note! Btw some really excellent post everyone
Closed out at 95.72 , this trade actually worked out quite well was wanting more but arent we all went short at 97.96 1% 30 pip s/l to test the waters then added on 3% at 97.00 thought that was the key level 30 pip s/l brought my 1st entry to same s/l that way if trade went against me only out the 1% my entrys have been solid last couple months exits something I am really workin on. As Jarroo said they define your profits and thats the scoreboard overall I am pleased with the results this was my only trade this week and its made my month now that I am out sure as hell it will tank hehe. Out the door for the weekend will post sunday nite if something looks worth posting ciao.
  • #30,097
  • Edited 4:51pm May 14, 2009 4:38pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting markmm
Nice trading, Jim.

I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?

Bundy nails it for me right there . . . . . "Just be a good disciplined trader. That's all. Your ROI will improve over time as a side affect."

I have the same view towards Risk/Reward, managing risk, etc. It's amazing how waiting for the right setup, no matter how long it takes, can do for your overall statistics.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,098
  • May 14, 2009 5:02pm May 14, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting mbqb11
LOL i got it down quick! If only I could post charts easily from it
For charts you'd need one of these:

http://gizmodo.com/5253728/asuss-sup...still-gorgeous
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #30,099
  • May 14, 2009 5:03pm May 14, 2009 5:03pm
Can anyone post a 2-day chart of GJ?

Thanks.

K.I.S.S.
  • #30,100
  • May 14, 2009 5:07pm May 14, 2009 5:07pm
Hello, FWIW I went short as well. I just entered after the recent pullback. I like that instead of shorting the low and having to put a 200 pip stop loss to get above the range. I now have a 108 pip stop loss. I like that quite a bit for a setup since my RISK has been cut in half waiting for a retrace then just getting in there off the break off yesterdays low.
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