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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,561
  • Apr 30, 2009 6:06am Apr 30, 2009 6:06am
Quoting dreamtrader
It helps.
Looking at the chart again, actually a lower low is made before your entry (the previous swing low is a minor swing low).
Sorry, mate, I'm not with you. I see one swing low, a retracement up to the Short Entry line, and then a trend-continuance. Can you reproduce my chart as you see it, and point out this other lower low?
  • #2,562
  • Apr 30, 2009 10:44am Apr 30, 2009 10:44am
M5-chart EURUSD:

s/r-level @ 50,
for the entry i waited until the next red candle for a "trend continuation candle".
Entry: Short @40
Exit: SP @00.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 42 KB
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #2,563
  • Apr 30, 2009 10:46am Apr 30, 2009 10:46am
After my trade was closed, a new s/r-level occured, just under the SP @00,
but i didnīt take this one.
Another great opportunity for some pipping.
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #2,564
  • Apr 30, 2009 6:38pm Apr 30, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting eyevoltage
Sorry, mate, I'm not with you. I see one swing low, a retracement up to the Short Entry line, and then a trend-continuance. Can you reproduce my chart as you see it, and point out this other lower low?
No problem. Here is the wave form I see. Minor ones though, as I mentioned.
Attached Image
  • #2,565
  • Apr 30, 2009 9:50pm Apr 30, 2009 9:50pm
hi EV, would you post the fibo line with 'target' in your chart? thanks
  • #2,566
  • Apr 30, 2009 10:56pm Apr 30, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting blackmovie
hi EV, would you post the fibo line with 'target' in your chart? thanks
Click the link, mate, and all will be revealed!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2316

Cheers
  • #2,567
  • Apr 30, 2009 11:30pm Apr 30, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting dreamtrader
No problem. Here is the wave form I see. Minor ones though, as I mentioned.
The problem with fib retracement theory, as far as I'm concerned, is that it isn't an exact science. There's a lot of trader discretion involved. However,it's easy to see in my chart is that there isn't a positive retracement of any substance until after the bottom of the fib line I drew. One never knows how far down the move will be, or how far the retracement will be....the only positive being that when price finally retraces to the Short Entry line (or the Long Entry in an uptrend), all we're waiting for then is a trend-continuation. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't. If not, then abandon it and look for the next opportunity. Does this help you at all?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,568
  • May 1, 2009 1:59am May 1, 2009 1:59am
Quoting eyevoltage
The problem with fib retracement theory, as far as I'm concerned, is that it isn't an exact science....
Yup, the low you highlighted is the minor swing low I talked about, therefore the swing low at the bottom of your fib line is a lower low. I just tried to find a reason for that downmove. I agree that fib isn't an exact science, in fact, I doubt if fib works in those small swings in a small timeframe at all. Many times since those fib number doesn't work to the precision of the exact number anyway; fibs are used as a zone around the middle, so even without fib, using naked eyes should be enough? Naked eyes should be able to see if the retracement is "deep enough" or "too deep" for a trend continuation trade. Why fib then? However, in bigger timeframes, I think fib can be used to confirm general support and resistance. Just my newbie opinion. Thanks anyway.
  • #2,569
  • May 1, 2009 2:15am May 1, 2009 2:15am
Quoting dreamtrader
Yup, the low you highlighted is the minor swing low I talked about, therefore the swing low at the bottom of your fib line is a lower low. I just tried to find a reason for that downmove. I agree that fib isn't an exact science, in fact, I doubt if fib works in those small swings in a small timeframe at all....
Dreamtrader, we have a saying here in the UK: "One man's meat is another man's poison." In other words, as far as fibs are concerned, there are those that swear by them and others that swear AT them!! I like them. You don't. That's the way it goes sometimes.
Cheers
  • #2,570
  • May 1, 2009 2:31am May 1, 2009 2:31am
Quoting eyevoltage
Dreamtrader, we have a saying here in the UK: "One man's meat is another man's poison." In other words, as far as fibs are concerned, there are those that swear by them and others that swear AT them!! I like them. You don't. That's the way it goes sometimes.
Cheers
I think either way it's useful to see at what level the retracement ended. However, to use Fibos well, one need to have a method to determine that the RT ended - EV seems to be using (successfully) confirming candles for the above purpose. So, PA is still pretty much (main) part of the picture, whether it's a Fibo- or MA- or "psych lines"-based trades. I'd say it's about a confluence of PA+"whatever works for you".
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,571
  • May 1, 2009 2:54am May 1, 2009 2:54am
Quoting Forex007
I think either way it's useful to see at what level the retracement ended. However, to use Fibos well, one need to have a method to determine that the RT ended - EV seems to be using (successfully) confirming candles for the above purpose. So, PA is still pretty much (main) part of the picture, whether it's a Fibo- or MA- or "psych lines"-based trades. I'd say it's about a confluence of PA+"whatever works for you".
Can't find anything to disagree with there, mate. Pretty well summed-up!
  • #2,572
  • May 1, 2009 2:55am May 1, 2009 2:55am
Fibbs are placed on a wave to show when it become a bargain to investor to get in. It is all relative to the wave your trading...Fibss are not meant to show an exact number but just an area. If a car is worth 10000 and I give you a 32.8 discount you buy it right ?...what about if I offer it with a 34 percent discount , does that mean its not good anymore lol. Trade like an investor and you will kill the market.
  • #2,573
  • May 1, 2009 3:00am May 1, 2009 3:00am
GM all....a dull Frankies Hour with Europe on holiday....a small sell off the lower high as the daily pivot broke, then The Brits held the FH low with a nice red wick and up it went for more than 100 pips.

I took a small sell as price stalled just under the R1 level and closed that quickly for 15 pips as its against the current trends - aqua ema for this TF and green ema for the hourly.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,574
  • May 1, 2009 3:50am May 1, 2009 3:50am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting Shermenator
Fibbs are placed on a wave to show when it become a bargain to investor to get in. It is all relative to the wave your trading...Fibss are not meant to show an exact number but just an area. If a car is worth 10000 and I give you a 32.8 discount you buy it right ?...what about if I offer it with a 34 percent discount , does that mean its not good anymore lol. Trade like an investor and you will kill the market.

Sherm, that is probably the best analogy for the use of Fibs I have heard. Cool!

The actual numbers (38.2 etc) on a 15-min TF are, for me at least, irrelevant.


Magnus
  • #2,575
  • May 1, 2009 5:44am May 1, 2009 5:44am
It looks as if another nice move is setting up in cable......the confluence area of 925 and S1 has held the rally and price is now rolling over with a lower high on the 5m and 15m charts.....I'm short.

I can see by eye-balling the chart that the fib decision zone of this last rally will be from aound the 875 level down to the 825 level, so IMO that's where cable will decide to bounce or not.....PA will show me when to TP, but I'm prepared for any of the psych levels to hold.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,576
  • Edited 6:19am May 1, 2009 6:09am | Edited 6:19am
Hey, just want to clarity that no disrespect was intended in my post on fibs. I apologize if it hurts the feelings of those who love fib.

In fact, I do use them, just that I found them to be more accurate on higher timeframes. Sometimes they work to the exact pip +/- 5! That is pretty accurate to me.

Using fibs as area to trade with PA to confirm sounds good to me.

Now I also think that fibs are like rulers to measure the amount of retracement (i.e. level of bargain?), no doubt that it can help.

Again, just my opinion. Appreciate yours too. Thank you guys for insights.
  • #2,577
  • May 1, 2009 6:23am May 1, 2009 6:23am
Quoting Islander
It looks as if another nice move is setting up in cable......the confluence area of 925 and S1 has held the rally and price is now rolling over with a lower high on the 5m and 15m charts.....I'm short.

I can see by eye-balling the chart that the fib decision zone of this last rally will be from aound the 875 level down to the 825 level, so IMO that's where cable will decide to bounce or not.....PA will show me when to TP, but I'm prepared for any of the psych levels to hold.....

took some off at the 850 level....lol, its also the 50% retrace
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,578
  • May 4, 2009 3:13am May 4, 2009 3:13am
We have a bank holiday in the UK today, so I'm not actually trading, but I'm still watching the charts!
Just been watching this little number developing and following it to it's conclusion, and I thought I'd post it out of interest sake. Using the 34ema as resistance, a Dark Cloud Cover candle developed, and I've indicated where entry and exit would have been had I been trading this. The purple dotted line is what I call a "mini-mid-point" line, sitting between the M3 line and the Pivot Point line. I've found that price very often reacts to these mini points, and so they're well worth watching.
Attached Image
  • #2,579
  • May 4, 2009 5:05am May 4, 2009 5:05am
Quoting eyevoltage
We have a bank holiday in the UK today, so I'm not actually trading, but I'm still watching the charts!
Just been watching this little number developing and following it to it's conclusion, and I thought I'd post it out of interest sake. Using the 34ema as resistance, a Dark Cloud Cover candle developed, and I've indicated where entry and exit would have been had I been trading this. The purple dotted line is what I call a "mini-mid-point" line, sitting between the M3 line and the Pivot Point line. I've found that price very often reacts to these...
Interesting trade, EV!

I noticed smth else on that chart (off the topic) - I don't recall who told me about that "feature" (and I am not sure whether that "feature" has a name - bullish candle with no lower wick in most cases means continued move downwards, at least for another 1-2 candles. It seems to work on all TFs.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,580
  • May 4, 2009 5:28am May 4, 2009 5:28am
Quoting Forex007
Interesting trade, EV!

I noticed smth else on that chart (off the topic) - I don't recall who told me about that "feature" (and I am not sure whether that "feature" has a name - bullish candle with no lower wick in most cases means continued move downwards, at least for another 1-2 candles. It seems to work on all TFs.
Happy bank holiday, mate, whatever the hell this one's for! Oh, yeah, Mayday or something. Big deal. Bank holidays really p**s me off. I didn't mind them when I was working, 'cos I was a shift worker and we got time and a half for them!
As I said, I wasn't actually trading, and it was really only boredom that made me post the chart. The "feature" you're on about is something that must have passed me by. It's certainly new to me, mate, but it's something I'll definitely keep in mind! Thanks for that.
So any special plans today, mate?
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