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  • #10,341
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:35pm Mar 31, 2009 10:35pm
I have been away all day because of the volatility, but just now I took a trade in eurjpy. If you look across 1 hr chart there is a lot of movement at this line. Also when it came through line previously it was quite a strong move. I also looked at what the usdjpy was doing, and the euro, pound,ect. Also there is a reversal candle previous to this one. I figured it was worth the risk and am in profit so target is 131.41, but with possible pullback at 130.69. Will decide whether to close there depending on strength of other charts as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #10,342
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:37pm Mar 31, 2009 10:37pm
Probably a good thing I got out, Looks like there is a head and shoulders on nzd/usd

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hds.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #10,343
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:42pm Mar 31, 2009 10:42pm
I have changed my upper line on eurjpy to 131.22. instead of 41. sorry but needed to be tweeked
  • #10,344
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:53pm Mar 31, 2009 10:53pm
gee the poor old kiwi got crunched today, and the aussie wasnt much better
  • #10,345
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:41pm Mar 31, 2009 11:41pm
Quoting Tori
gee the poor old kiwi got crunched today, and the aussie wasnt much better
Anything in the news as to why it collapsed so suddenly? There was nothing schedules for the NZD.
  • #10,346
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:46pm Mar 31, 2009 11:46pm
Well I like conspiracy theories, so here goes. There was a false statement came out saying obama would tell GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt. That plays havoc with the USD, Because it is the asian session the aussie nzd and usjap are all greatly affected. Being smaller currencies in aus and nzd it allows much more volatility. Someone creams off the top and then statement comes out to say it was false. It certainly did the trick. Then nzd was probably primed for a drop so it got spooked. Now it will come back up slowly
  • #10,347
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:50pm Mar 31, 2009 11:50pm
That is why I warned this morning not to think usdjpy was actually on its way down. I was lucky and got in just in time to get 100 nice big ones. But then saw the writing on the wall and assumed it would go back up, and it is. I even think I wont touch it until sure it doesnt go through that line. It could well go higher.
  • #10,348
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:50pm Mar 31, 2009 11:50pm
Quoting Tori
Well I like conspiracy theories, so here goes. There was a false statement came out saying obama would tell GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt. That plays havoc with the USD, Because it is the asian session the aussie nzd and usjap are all greatly affected. Being smaller currencies in aus and nzd it allows much more volatility. Someone creams off the top and then statement comes out to say it was false. It certainly did the trick. Then nzd was probably primed for a drop so it got spooked. Now it will come back up slowly
Interesting. I was listening when Giethner made his mis-interpreted speech last week and the reaction was similar. Just very strange that NZDs reaction was twice that of any other currency.
  • #10,349
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:55pm Mar 31, 2009 11:55pm
closed eurjpy for 40 pips. not comfortable with the time.
  • #10,350
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:57pm Mar 31, 2009 11:57pm
There was a very technically sound head and shoulders setup on the nzd, which usually generate signifacant flows in the direction of the reversal.

In regards to speaches & rumors etc, I am very reluctant to accept that people will commit market moving flows based on such events.
  • #10,351
  • Mar 31, 2009 11:57pm Mar 31, 2009 11:57pm
Well in last couple of days there has been talk about concerns nz interest rate unsustainable, so that caused a nervousness with long term traders, and then today happened at a head and shoulders in a timeframe that would cause big reaction. So I guess both things helped to cause more volatility.
  • #10,352
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:00am Apr 1, 2009 12:00am
If anyone was listening to that eurjpy trade and what I was watching, I closed it when it took a good move up, but eurusd stopped and actually went down a couple of pips. They were both in sync till then, and I suddenly felt something was out of whack. Also coming up to hour. So better out than in.
  • #10,353
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:00am Apr 1, 2009 12:00am
Quoting Tori
Well in last couple of days there has been talk about concerns nz interest rate unsustainable, so that caused a nervousness with long term traders, and then today happened at a head and shoulders in a timeframe that would cause big reaction. So I guess both things helped to cause more volatility.
I agree Tori. Interest rate differentials are primary market movers, at least in my mind.
  • #10,354
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:04am Apr 1, 2009 12:04am
gee that was great. came up to my target, without me in it. well it is best to do what feels right at the time I guess, and just be happy with profit. see it it gets to next target.
  • #10,355
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:07am Apr 1, 2009 12:07am
well that was even better because my feeling was right. I dont think I can trade anything now for a while. This might go sideways a bit and I have trouble with that. I will look at my charts to find something with some runability. No more posts from me for a while. toodles.
  • #10,356
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:11am Apr 1, 2009 12:11am
Hi all, I'm new here.
I hope all the best for you in trading and congratulations for the excellent thread!

I have taken a short on EURGBP @ 0.9234 target 0.9170 and SL currently @ BE.
Below is the chart as I see it.
I was a few pips late in the entry.
My initial SL was 0.9260

Best to all
AO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURGBP 01_04_2009 (60 Min).jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #10,357
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:21am Apr 1, 2009 12:21am
According to the NZ papers the drop in the NZD was because of the banks putting the 5 year mortgage rates up whilst the official cash rate was low, causing the Reserve bank Governor to say he wasn't to pleased with this and the markets thinking that he might cut interest rates again. From a technical view its a great looking H&S on the 4 hour with a nice symmetrical target.Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: n.gif Size: 26 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #10,358
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:21am Apr 1, 2009 12:21am
Quoting Ferrari
There was a very technically sound head and shoulders setup on the nzd, which usually generate signifacant flows in the direction of the reversal.

In regards to speaches & rumors etc, I am very reluctant to accept that people will commit market moving flows based on such events.
Speeches and rumours do not generally change sentiment but they do kick off moves that were building up. The Tim Geithner misquote I mentioned is the latest example - 150 pips in an hour.
  • #10,359
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:23am Apr 1, 2009 12:23am
Quoting bogus
According to the NZ papers the drop in the NZD was because of the banks putting the 5 year mortgage rates up whilst the official cash rate was low, causing the Reserve bank Governor to say he wasn't to pleased with this and the markets thinking that he might cut interest rates again. From a technical view its a great looking H&S on the 4 hour with a nice symmetrical target.Time will tell.
There you go, as someone mentioned earlier H&S ready to go, interest rates unsustainable and then the news catalyst.

Thanks Bogus
  • #10,360
  • Apr 1, 2009 12:27am Apr 1, 2009 12:27am
eurjpy. My next buy in level is 129.33. Unless it drops that far it is going sideways. I think it is possible because the usdjpy needs a little drop and the euro is weak as well. That is all I am looking at tonight.
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