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Trading EUR/USD & Majors, Longer Term

  • #181
  • Mar 6, 2009 2:19am Mar 6, 2009 2:19am
Quoting wormboy
For those interested to short cable. I have took a small short position @4215 sl@4350.
Took the position based on the 3 black crows formation presented on the hourly & the 4hrly shooting star formation. Higly risky trade but worth a shot nonetheless.
Will post the chart later. Good luck.
Careful on that one, WB. On the hourly, it's broke through the 200 EMA, and looks like it is testing it again. I've always found a break across the 200 EMA to be significant in terms of medium term trend shift on a given time frame.
  • #182
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:11am Mar 6, 2009 3:11am
Thanks for the heads up daffy
I will close my position should a candle closes higher than the start of the crow formation. Anyway, I've only put 0.2 lotsize for this trade. So, I am not too worried about this one not going my way. If it does, I will look to add.
Thanks again mate.
Thank You
  • #183
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:38am Mar 6, 2009 3:38am
btw daffy, how did the 4hr closed on your chart?
I'm sorry I cant post up a chart atm, coz i'm at the office.
Will put mine up later.
Cheers
Thank You
  • #184
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:50am Mar 6, 2009 3:50am
Here you go, 4H and 1H charts attached.

Interesting about the 4H chart, is that it is right between the 100 and 50 EMA. We touched the 100 EMA with the prior candle and went down, touched the 50 EMA and rejected it (lower wick), so I'd be looking at a retest of the 100 EMA next.

Having said that, I think we're in consolidation now until the NFP news. Bloomberg is saying there is chatter on the market floor that the figure is around the 1 million mark, which would be huge!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1h.jpg Size: 170 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4h.jpg Size: 173 KB
  • #185
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:02am Mar 6, 2009 4:02am
1 mil? Wonder what that'll do to cable?
Usually before this we could count on this going under after a bad data. Not so sure nowadays.
Thanks for the chart daffy. I'm off for dinner. Will be back for the fireworks hopefully. Cable crawling atm, nfp is sure to push cable somewhere, question is where? you're guess is as good as mine lol.
See you guys in a bit.
Thank You
  • #186
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:09am Mar 6, 2009 4:09am
well, it's not official and it's just a rumour, so who knows whether that is true or not. Presumably a figure that big, so far above the forecast, would lead to risk aversion, and there was also chatter that the spike bullishness in yen pairs earlier today was down to risk aversion. I think the best bet is to stay out of the market unless you're already in from way up or down already.
  • #187
  • Mar 6, 2009 5:34am Mar 6, 2009 5:34am
This is the chart explaining post #177.
I am looking for a clear breakout from the trendline to position a short entry.
We'll see if it breaks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dragon6th4hr.JPG Size: 88 KB
Thank You
  • #188
  • Mar 6, 2009 5:44am Mar 6, 2009 5:44am
This is the chart for post #179 explaining the small position I took earlier.
I did mentioned earlier that 4265 level need to be properly breached before long position should be considered. That level had offered a respectable resistance before & coincidentally the bearish 3 black crows formed after met with the resistance. I had also placed the wide stop loss for a reason. It is placed well beyond the triangle forming on the 3rd February (low) & 9th February (high). Draw a trendline and you will see it. Should cable move up breaching the resistance & the triangle, I will go long. Unless that happens, atm my bias remains short. We'll see what the nfp data has in store for us.
Good luck everyone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUHOUR.JPG Size: 99 KB
Thank You
  • #189
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:21am Mar 6, 2009 7:21am
New 4H candle. Not much to report really, the market was pretty stagnant until NFP, and then volatile while the market digested the news.

So we did touch the 100 EMA on the 4H, and would seem to be acting as resistance. The new candle closed below the close of the previous candle, so it seems the bears were able to knock the bulls back a bit.

Looking at the hourly, the last two candles are quite interesting. Candle #4 closed below the high of candle #3. Candle #4 closed with a long up wick. All of this put together says bear.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4h.jpg Size: 172 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1h.jpg Size: 168 KB
  • #190
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:34am Mar 6, 2009 7:34am
Daffy, nice one mate. Off all the things you wrote, one word caught my eye - bear
That's all I need to hear when I'm already in short Lol
Thank You
  • #191
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:35am Mar 6, 2009 7:35am
Quoting wormboy
Daffy, nice one mate. Off all the things you wrote, one word caught my eye - bear
That's all I need to hear when I'm already in short Lol
You surprise me ... oh ok, you don't really, haha!
  • #192
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:38am Mar 6, 2009 7:38am
haha good one. You in any particular trade atm mate?
Thank You
  • #193
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:42am Mar 6, 2009 7:42am
Quoting wormboy
haha good one. You in any particular trade atm mate?
Shorted cable at 4264 off the 15M charts. Still paper trading at the moment. I know it's not real trading, but I'm encouraged that I'm picking trades correctly a lot more often than I'm picking them incorrectly. I have made some trades on a real account that I lost on, nothing major as it was small lots, but I understood why I lost the money, it's because they were bad trades to start with.

I'll post what I see, as it's a way of reinforcing my learning.
  • #194
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:11am Mar 6, 2009 8:11am
Quoting wormboy
This is the chart for post #179 explaining the small position I took earlier.
I did mentioned earlier that 4265 level need to be properly breached before long position should be considered. That level had offered a respectable resistance before & coincidentally the bearish 3 black crows formed after met with the resistance. I had also placed the wide stop loss for a reason. It is placed well beyond the triangle forming on the 3rd February (low) & 9th February (high). Draw a trendline and you will see it. Should cable move up breaching the resistance...
I totally agree with you ,for me the cable is still bearish and the proof is in today action,cheers I am short too,cheers
  • #195
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:12am Mar 6, 2009 8:12am
That's great daffy, doesn't matter if it's real or demo to me. Sound analysis counts. I've blown 15 grand before. So I know, it's a lot of work. Went back to demo for 8 months. Back trading live for a few months now. All good now

By the way, how you like my crows? yeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaa, look at her fall mate.
Thank You
  • #196
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:17am Mar 6, 2009 8:17am
sofia! welcome!
I am throwing a bear party. lol
Am holding short from 4215. I'll need this candle to close below this trendline we have to amend my stop
Thank You
  • #197
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:19am Mar 6, 2009 8:19am
That's a huge candle on the hourly ...
  • #198
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:30am Mar 6, 2009 8:30am
Not huge. MONSTER.
Anyway, I'll need her to break this channel and the support @4150 I have on the other chart (post #188) before adding up. That will probably be next hour. But I have no problems waiting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cablechannel.JPG Size: 78 KB
Thank You
  • #199
  • Mar 6, 2009 9:29am Mar 6, 2009 9:29am
Welp, I have added another small position to my trade. Wouldn't want to spoil this week's gains
First short @4215 stop had been amended, albeit a small move.
Second short taken @4113.
1. short @4215 sl@4200
2. short @4113 sl@4300

The reason I have the second position taken is that it had already closed well below 4150 resistance which is the horizontal line I have on the hourly chart. The hourly up ascending channel had already been broken and she is moving within my 4hrly descending channel. So, no reason for me to hold back. I will look to amend my stops when price closes at 4000 level. If she doesn't I will tighten my stops before ny session closes and carry her over the weekend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.JPG Size: 91 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable4hrly.JPG Size: 78 KB
Thank You
  • #200
  • Mar 6, 2009 11:48am Mar 6, 2009 11:48am
hmm .. this is getting boring
Thank You
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