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Trading setups around SR Zones

  • #21
  • Mar 3, 2009 3:46am Mar 3, 2009 3:46am
Quoting Willowgal
GBPUSD - I will be carefully watching PA around 1.3990 for a bounce here
I agree it is a good level, sure has come down hard though.
  • #22
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:01am Mar 3, 2009 4:01am
Quoting Willowgal
Hi birdt,

How's it going ?

Thanks for the explanation .... hope you are still pipping nicely !

All is well, thanks for asking.

The Law of Charts is a great introduction to some really powerful techniques. I have no doubt that trading 1-2-3's alone could be profitable, but if you trade them from a mapwork of support and resistance, it'll boost the success%. At its core, it is trading with the trend as defined by the highs and lows. Best of all, you know exactly where to cut your losses (and sometimes reverse) if certain levels are broken. I have actually found trading another of his techniques - the Ross Hook - on breakouts to be even more profitable from the S/R map, especially as the markets have displayed such a high propensity to trend in recent months.

I have also been looking a bit deeper into fibonacci projections (despite dimissing fib's some time ago) and likely time of reversals recently for profit targeting. Leaving pips on the table has always been an issue for me, but exploring these avenues has revealed some interesting observations so far, and appears to be having a positive effect on the a/c balance. Perhaps most significant has been the revelation that price will make its high or low of the session in the first 30 mins (sometimes slightly longer, as today has) of trading. Not entirely sure of the exact percentages so far but I am certain it is statistically significant and has implications for bias, entries and exits.

All the best with your trading.
  • #23
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:01am Mar 3, 2009 4:01am
Found the file I mentioned earlier, unfortunately there is no name on the file. I am sure if you searched FF with 123 you would find it though.

Cam
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc trader using 123.doc   528 KB | 1,646 downloads
  • #24
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:08am Mar 3, 2009 4:08am
The old '1-2-3' on my PA screen said it all !!

Thanks guys .... profiting off it already .... I actually used that but didn't know that was a 1-2-3 was until now. LOL

Took +16 on 1/2 of order and b/e other half, letting run now up 32
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-123.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-123-15min.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #25
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:14am Mar 3, 2009 4:14am
I then 'manage' the trade using the old PA levels on the price screen ... get out when a resistance line holds after a re-test.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-moveup.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #26
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:47am Mar 3, 2009 4:47am
What about this as a 1-2-3 trade Long ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 123 trade.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #27
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:00am Mar 3, 2009 5:00am
Quoting ProbaBill
Found the file I mentioned earlier, unfortunately there is no name on the file. I am sure if you searched FF with 123 you would find it though.

Cam
Thanks ProbaBill ... very useful
  • #28
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:12am Mar 3, 2009 5:12am
Quoting Willowgal
What about this as a 1-2-3 trade Long ?
Hi Willow - just noticed your posts.....seems that we're trading similar set ups

I also use the 1 min especially around FO / LO, although its a long time since I've actually used a tick chart!

I and the others posting in the Psych Levels thread just place the 00s, 50s and sometimes the 25s & 75s, with or without pivots and look for trades off and too those levels....here's a couple of posts from this morning:


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable 15 min chart
GM all.

Its starting to look as if the low for this move is in at yesterday's low pin bar / doji just above the 1.3950 level.

So far today we have a higher low at 1.3988 early in the Asian session and now the green hourly MAs are starting to roll over to slope upwards.

I'm long from the last pull back the 4100 level, lets see what the next hour brings.....IF todays low is in, then the 6 day ADR would suggest a move to around the 4225 level....TWT

Edit: I took a quick 20 pips as price failed to break the earlier high. I'll buy again after the pull back.....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1236064023

__________________



http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable 5min chart
Edit: I took a quick 20 pips as price failed to break the earlier high. I'll buy again after the pull back.....

The pull back, which I sold, was a classic - right to the 50% retrace of todays move. Numerous buy opportunities, confirmed by the long green bullish engulfing candle. As price has stalled at the earlier highs, I've taken profits on half of my position and will watch till the UK data at 4:30 est / 9:30 GMT

The Euro's also trading close to its daily highs, so if the UK news is positive I can see the upper target area that I mentioned earler coming into play....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Edit: I exited the remainder as price stalled at the 150 level.....€ also turned back....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1236070125

__________________
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #29
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:19am Mar 3, 2009 5:19am
Quoting Willowgal
What about this as a 1-2-3 trade Long ?
Looks like a great setup. I like how there is a little consolidation just above point 2. I understand that to be a good sign. At least it shows that the bears weren't able to reject it right away.
  • #30
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:20am Mar 3, 2009 5:20am
Quoting Willowgal
What about this as a 1-2-3 trade Long ?
Yes it is, but if you zoom out to the 5M it becomes obvious.
  • #31
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:22am Mar 3, 2009 5:22am
Quoting Islander
Hi Willow - just noticed your posts.....seems that we're trading similar set ups

I also use the 1 min especially around FO / LO, although its a long time since I've actually used a tick chart!

I and the others posting in the Psych Levels thread just place the 00s, 50s and sometimes the 25s & 75s, with or without pivots and look for trades off and too those levels....here's a couple of posts from this morning:


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Cable 15 min chart
GM all.

Its starting to look as if the...
Hi Islander,

I must be on the right track then with a 'seasoned FF' vouched for member looking along similar lines !

Thanks for the post... by the way could you pass on that Range Indi at the bottom of the screen... much better than the one I have !

Thanks

WG
  • #32
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:55am Mar 3, 2009 5:55am
Quoting Islander
I also use the 1 min especially around FO / LO, although its a long time since I've actually used a tick chart!
What's FO/LO?
  • #33
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:55am Mar 3, 2009 5:55am
Quoting Willowgal
Hi Islander,

I must be on the right track then with a 'seasoned FF' vouched for member looking along similar lines !

Thanks for the post... by the way could you pass on that Range Indi at the bottom of the screen... much better than the one I have !

Thanks

WG
Please check your PM....thx
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #34
  • Mar 3, 2009 7:29am Mar 3, 2009 7:29am
Quoting mathematician
What's FO/LO?
Frankfurt Open / London Open - the starts of the busiest trading hours of the day.....normally!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #35
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:29pm Mar 3, 2009 2:29pm
Anybody think that we'll get a bounce off the EurUsd at 1.2550, maybe a small head fake or will it break through and make a big run short? If it bounces long, could be good for a few hundred pips. If it breaks through the support and goes short...maybe several hundred.

What's your guess? I just don't think that it's going to go flat for a while.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd_03-03-09.gif Size: 13 KB
Balance in Everything
  • #36
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:47pm Mar 3, 2009 4:47pm
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
Hi, Probabill, very glad to see you are starting this thread. I think I am learning quite a lot from you in this thread. however, could you please, if I didn't offend you by asking this, illustrate a lit bit about your impulsive trades? if you can reliably predict the turning point, theoretically there should not be enough of many impulsive ones which make you not succeed. there must be someting that enduce you pull the trigger, therefore, I guess there be some other reason casting dust on the clarity of your prediction. I am having similar issues too, this annoys me a lot, and makes my acc balance up and down frequently, always stays breakeven. I wish could break it through shortly, and I guess probably you too.

Other than this, not sure if you can share with how you make the predictions? it is very interesting to see it, I think.

Quoting ProbaBill
FYI I have started this thread to continue a discussion from another thread so as not to hijack or clutter the other thread.

Below is a chart representing Support and Resistance zones on the EURUSD for the last three trading sessions.

I trade in the blue session times and sometimes a bit further out if I feel it is worth it.

The time on the brokers platform is GMT+2

I have marked out the patterns I am attempting to trade on the chart.

jtdt777, you mentioned an interest in Billy Ray Valentines approach and I also see great potential with...
  • #37
  • Mar 3, 2009 7:56pm Mar 3, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting krue
Hi, Probabill, very glad to see you are starting this thread. I think I am learning quite a lot from you in this thread. however, could you please, if I didn't offend you by asking this, illustrate a lit bit about your impulsive trades? if you can reliably predict the turning point, theoretically there should not be enough of many impulsive ones which make you not succeed. there must be someting that enduce you pull the trigger, therefore, I guess there be some other reason casting dust on the clarity of your prediction. I am having similar issues...

I think one of the main issue I have with impulsive trades is that I am watching too many time frames. I map out the best places to trade based on higher time frames but because I initiate my trades on lower time frames I can get sucked into taking trades because they look good on the lower time frame. What is compounding this problem is when I watch good looking trades on these lower time frames, I pass on them due to the above reasons, then they turn into excellent trades.Discipline, patience and a rigorous set of rules is what I need to resolve these issues but it is hard to create a set of rules that allows for the fact that price never does exactly the same thing twice. Balancing flexibility with consistency is the key.

--

The charts below (1HR) outline how I map out SR zones to predict where significant price action usually manifests. I will also go down as far as the 15M to pin point within these zones where price will react. I am usually looking for signs of reversals at these zones but you need to plan for if the zone fails as well. Finding good SR areas is the easy part, planning on what to do with them is the real challenge.

Cam
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SR zones 1.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SR zones 2.jpg Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SR zones 3.jpg Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SR trade plans.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #38
  • Mar 3, 2009 8:44pm Mar 3, 2009 8:44pm
Here are some random price action setups from one of the areas shown on my previous 1HR anchor chart.

Many of you will recognize the patterns I have highlighted.

All of this is easily identified at the hard right edge of the chart with a little practice. But as I said before I am not consistently profitable yet so don't take my word for it.

Cam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Random 5M PA.jpg Size: 229 KB
  • #39
  • Mar 3, 2009 9:00pm Mar 3, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting krue
I meant one has the benefit to minimize stoploss exposure by doing this, risk/reward becomes very significant, the trick is to hold your judgement based on large TF, and choose the trigger at lower TF along with the large TF direction. so, this could be good thing, if you agree??
Yes I agree, I think many traders are attracted to this idea and rightly so, lining up setups across multiple time frames is one of the best concepts around IMO. I think ultimately what every you decide, you must trade it the same way every time. I have been studying trading methods for a couple of years now and in hindsight I probably could have made a few of them work if I had stuck at them, but I am actually glad that I kept on searching for something better. I have come around full circle a few times and have found throughout all of this study a few things that kept on working when so many other things failed. Now I have to create a trading plan that I can stick too and just do it.

Cam
  • #40
  • Mar 3, 2009 9:15pm Mar 3, 2009 9:15pm
Quoting krue
are the pink zones your daily S/R. I am guessing people trading like your or mine style seems having not strong enough mentality to experience a large stoploss which I think should be large enough to suit the daily volatility, if I am correct. on top of that, probably again the mentality to see the move turns back toward one's stoploss level before turning around to the direction of initial judgement. maybe I need to build up more tolerance and patience till the price action get through all the ups and downs till the target. but, not till seeing...
The pink zones I identified off the 1HR chart, these are the zones I am looking for setups at.

With regard to stop loss, It all depends on your trading plan and this is where money management comes in. If your position is scaled correctly trading with a 100pip stop loss and shooting for a 300pip target is exactly the same as trading with a 10pip stop loss with a 30pip target, the Risk Reward is the same.

I think a RR ratio of 1:1.5 with a 60% success rate is acceptable if you find it hard to deal with the holding onto positions through market fluctuations.

A RR of 1:3 with accuracy of 45% is even better, but difficult emotionally.

oops got to go.

Cam
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