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How important is a knowledge of maths?

  • #81
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:49am Mar 26, 2007 7:49am
Quoting Samuri
1/40 * 1/39 * 1/38 * 1/37 * 1/36 = 1 / 78960960

correct?
That's the answer.
  • #82
  • Edited 8:16am Mar 26, 2007 7:54am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting nvwine
My mind is on holiday so I can't figure it out but I think you are wrong. In the California Super Lotto the odds of picking 5 of 5 correctly out of 47 numbers is 1,592,937 to 1. My logic is based on this web site.
I'm getting 47*46*45*44*43 = 18,407,200. Way off.

The site says you have a 1 in 49 chance of picking the mega. How is that if there are 27 numbers?

They say the lottery is just a tax on those that are bad at math.
  • #83
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:59am Mar 26, 2007 7:59am
Quoting blueruby
The website says pick 5 of 47, then 1 of 27 for the mega number.

I'm getting 47*46*45*44*43*27 = 4,969,960,000. One in about 5 billion.

They say the lottery is just a tax on those that are bad at math.
But were not looking at 5 out of 47 and then 1 out of 27. We are looking for 5 out of 40. Right? Check here. Next we can figure the odds of information on the web being correct.???
  • #84
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:04am Mar 26, 2007 8:04am

I copied this off another website.

Quote
1/40 × 1/39 × 1/38 × 1/37 × 1/36 = 1/78960960
So, at this point, your odds of winning are 1 in 78960960. But, since you can choose your winning numbers in any order, your chances of winning are somewhat better than this. Your chance betters by the number of different ways that a sequence of 5 numbers can be written down, which for 5 numbers is 5! (5 factorial) or 120. Divide 78960960 by 120 to account for this, to get 658008.
In other words, there are 120 different ways that the 5 numbers you choose can be filled out on your lottery ticket--if you choose your 5 numbers correctly, any of these ways will make a winning ticket.

  • #85
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:14am Mar 26, 2007 8:14am
Quoting blueruby
That's the answer.
No, my answer is correct.
  • #86
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:23am Mar 26, 2007 8:23am
Quoting JosTheelen
No, my answer is correct.
Yes, you are.

In lottery order is not required.

Let's take another bite.

On a 50:50 win/lose basis, how many trades it takes when a straight 6-time loss will likely to happen?
凹凸 only
  • #87
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:25am Mar 26, 2007 8:25am
Quoting nvwine

I copied this off another website.

Yup, I see now, that is correct. That makes sense.

If you had to pick them in order, then multiplying would be right.

In other words, you have 5 of 40 chances to get the one of the numbers, 4 in 39 to get another of them, etc.

5/40*4/39*3/38*2/37*1/36 = 1 in 658,008

So for the CA website it would be,

5/47 * 4/46 * 3/45 * 2/44 * 1/43 = 1 in 1,533,939. Didn't get their answer exactly....

But then if I put in the mega, I get their number.

5/47*4/46*3/45*2/44*1/43 * 1/27 = 1 in 41,416,353

That's the right way to do it.
  • #88
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:26am Mar 26, 2007 8:26am
Quoting JosTheelen
No, my answer is correct.
Yup, you did it right.
  • #89
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:31am Mar 26, 2007 8:31am
Quoting Samuri
Yes, you are.

In lottery order is not required.

Let's take another bite.

On a 50:50 win/lose basis, how many trades it takes when a straight 6-time loss will likely to happen?
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/12 chance of that streak happening.

So out of 12 strings of 6 trades, it should happen once, statistically.

That would be 72 trades. If your win/loss is 50/50, and you make 72 trades, you will have a 6 loss streak in there somewhere.

Check my math, JT, am I right?
  • #90
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:33am Mar 26, 2007 8:33am
I have to take my nap now. I've been up too long. I want to thank all of you for a very enjoyable and thought provoking morning. It's amazing how useful google can be when you can't remember the real answers.
  • #91
  • Mar 26, 2007 5:20pm Mar 26, 2007 5:20pm
keep the probability questions coming!
  • #92
  • Mar 26, 2007 6:34pm Mar 26, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting blueruby
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/12 chance of that streak happening.

So out of 12 strings of 6 trades, it should happen once, statistically.

That would be 72 trades. If your win/loss is 50/50, and you make 72 trades, you will have a 6 loss streak in there somewhere.

Check my math, JT, am I right?
I don't know if that is right. You have a 50% chance of losing any one trade, so you need to multiply the odds of losing by 6 to obtain the probability of a string of 6 losses (or wins).
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/64, not 1/12

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #93
  • Mar 27, 2007 2:29am Mar 27, 2007 2:29am
Quoting blueruby
Very often you get divergence between an indicator (such as CCI, RSI, stoch) and price. Price goes up and makes a higher peak, the indicator goes down and makes a lower peak.

If the indicator is just a moving average, how could this be?

It cannot, it's mathematically impossible.
Ahh.. but if you don't know math, then it's just voodoo...

Or some little guy inside your computer drawing stuff you don't understand..

It is mathematically POSSIBLE because if you cross a faster MA with a slower MA and subtract the difference; then when the price is moving in the correct direction but at the rate that is slower than it was previously, the longer MA will "catch up" and will lead to divergence..

but then again, why bother learning math..

The probability questions seemed to have a "memory bias" in that the coin flip or whatever you are doing has no memory if it flipped heads or tails last time, so the probability is the same.. and streaks will happen for and against you, you don't know when, and you don't know for how long..

I programmed a roulette wheel into software, and ran streak analysis.. (this is the reason why I use to get kicked out of casinos)...

I do a million runs against the wheel at a time; some win, some lose, long term, nothing I can do to beat the 5.26% advantage the house has over me..

So most who don't know math, aren't factoring in the bid/ask overhead and how that wrecks havoc on your calculations and shifts your win/loss graphs down drastically; especially in lower timeframes..

I like this question to "how important is it to know programming?" You can win without programming, but it's difficult.. and again, nobody seems to be answering the most important questions of all, which is:

If you can give yourself and advantage, no matter how slight, why wouldn't you? Answer, because you are lazy and stupid..
google:
  • #94
  • Edited 3:55am Mar 27, 2007 3:04am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting twoblink
Ahh.. but if you don't know math, then it's just voodoo...
No, I don't know math, I'm just an electrical engineer

Quote
Or some little guy inside your computer drawing stuff you don't understand..

That's exactly right, there's a little guy in there. I used to hire them and put them in.

Quote

It is mathematically POSSIBLE because if you cross a faster MA with a slower MA and subtract the difference; then when the price is moving in the correct direction but at the rate that is slower than it was previously, the longer MA will "catch up" and will lead to divergence..

That explains MACD. That wasn't on the list mentioned - CCI, RSI, Stochs.

Stochs and RSI do not use moving averages of price. That is the reason. But why bother doing 30 seconds research on investopedia on what you're attempting to hold a conversation about? Especially if your ego (and whatever else) is so small that your real purpose here is just to convince others of your superior intellect.

Quote

but then again, why bother learning math..

The probability questions seemed to have a "memory bias" in that the coin flip or whatever you are doing has no memory if it flipped heads or tails last time, so the probability is the same.. and streaks will happen for and against you, you don't know when, and you don't know for how long..

I programmed a roulette wheel into software, and ran streak analysis.. (this is the reason why I use to get kicked out of casinos)...

I do a million runs against the wheel at a time; some win, some lose, long term, nothing I can do to beat the 5.26% advantage the house has over me..

So most who don't know math, aren't factoring in the bid/ask overhead and how that wrecks havoc on your calculations and shifts your win/loss graphs down drastically; especially in lower timeframes..

I like this question to "how important is it to know programming?" You can win without programming, but it's difficult.. and again, nobody seems to be answering the most important questions of all, which is:

If you can give yourself and advantage, no matter how slight, why wouldn't you? Answer, because you are lazy and stupid..

Then there are a lot of lazy, stupid, successful traders out there. I don't think I would call people stupid if I hadn't even bothered to see how stochs are calculated before getting on my high horse.

Gee, I wish I was as smart as you, then I, too could be superior to J. Welles Wilder, Martin Pring, Larry Williams, Tushar Chande, Dr. Alex Elder, and all those other (rich) fools who think that indicators mean something useful.
  • #95
  • Mar 27, 2007 5:41am Mar 27, 2007 5:41am
Quoting andersenws
I don't know if that is right. You have a 50% chance of losing any one trade, so you need to multiply the odds of losing by 6 to obtain the probability of a string of 6 losses (or wins).
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/64, not 1/12

andersenws
You're right. Lack of sleep/shooting from the hip got me again. 2*2*2*2*2*2=64. duh.

There are 64 possible outcomes (sequences of 6 trades), one of which is 6 losers in a row. odds are 1/64.

So if you do 64 strings of 6 trades (384 trades) then you should have 6 losers in a row somewhere in there.
  • #96
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:23pm Mar 27, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting blueruby
You're right. Lack of sleep/shooting from the hip got me again. 2*2*2*2*2*2=64. duh.

There are 64 possible outcomes (sequences of 6 trades), one of which is 6 losers in a row. odds are 1/64.

So if you do 64 strings of 6 trades (384 trades) then you should have 6 losers in a row somewhere in there.
That makes sense. But that doesn't guarantees that we will not experience more than 6 losers in a row, right ? If we do 128 strings of 6 trades .. we may have 12 losers in a row, etc etc ....

The question is, will our equity survive that 12/24/36 losers in a row (if it ever happens) ?
  • #97
  • Last Post: Mar 28, 2007 2:48am Mar 28, 2007 2:48am
Quoting luqmanz
That makes sense. But that doesn't guarantees that we will not experience more than 6 losers in a row, right ? If we do 128 strings of 6 trades .. we may have 12 losers in a row, etc etc ....

The question is, will our equity survive that 12/24/36 losers in a row (if it ever happens) ?
For 12 losers in a row, it's a new problem.

Now you have odds of 1 / 2^^12 = 1 in 4096 chances of getting a string of 12 losses in a row.

So if you did 4096 strings of 12 trades, (49,152) you could get 12 losers in a row.
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