Attachments: No Brainer Trades

No Brainer Trades

#8,721
Feb 11, 2009 8:47am Feb 11, 2009 8:47am

RedCabbage
| Joined Nov 2008 | Status: I support the resistance | 1,033 Posts

Quoting schmurex

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IMHO 2537 level is still valid for a retest before breaking through.
I allready missed it twice for 2 to 4 pips. hope to get it next time.

Ignored

Look at the daily chart USDCAD is in a wedge, we'll probably see it go down to 12200.

#8,722
Feb 11, 2009 9:05am Feb 11, 2009 9:05am

RedCabbage
| Joined Nov 2008 | Status: I support the resistance | 1,033 Posts

Quoting orcus

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I'm almost caught up with the thread and have read the pdf, but sometimes I get mixed signals. For example: BRV says a good retracement that close to your planned entry makes it much less likely that your trade will get a good bounce, particularly if the retracement was recent; this was a 100 pip ret within an hour, so by those criteria I would have thought the trade was no longer an NBT and in fact pretty risky. You say the strong move back up convinced you the trade would still be good, but isn't strong price momentum toward the line usually another...

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Yes and no.

A recent retracement closeby will obviously weaken any other reaction close by and that trade was more risky becaude of this.

But let me ask you - if price crept into that area above 12514 slowly in 10 small 5m candles how excited about it would you be?

Sellers could slowly get in and it would be like chopping a big tree down with a very small axe. As it was, suddenly we were in the top half of that range and all the sellers acted at once like a really big chainsaw - down came the tree. The faster price fell away the more late sellers joined the party and increased momentum etc. etc.

Yes a fast moving candle will break through s/r more easily.

However a strong solid candle delivering all the buyers/sellers to one place quickly will concentrate any opposite reaction, usually at the candle close.

Look at your 1h and 4h charts, how many times do long solid candles with little or no wicks reverse on the next candle?

#8,723
Feb 11, 2009 9:13am Feb 11, 2009 9:13am

schmurex
| Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 122 Posts

Quoting RedCabbage

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Look at the daily chart USDCAD is in a wedge, we'll probably see it go down to 12200.

Ignored

You're right.
I gess that you're talking about the wedge between red and yellow. actually zooming back to daily I realized I had only the one between red and red. It doesn't harm to keep my sell limit order just in case it retest it which wouldn't even appear on a daily chart.

#8,724
Feb 11, 2009 9:24am Feb 11, 2009 9:24am

orcus
| Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 96 Posts

Quoting RedCabbage

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But let me ask you - if price crept into that area above 12514 slowly in 10 small 5m candles how excited about it would you be?

Ignored

Honestly, I'd probably be pretty excited -- it would suggest to me that buying pressure was dying out, there were fewer and fewer buyers at each successively higher price point, thus making me think that it was approaching a spot with a concentration of sellers; not coincidentally, right where I had marked out a support/resistance area.

This is what I mean by mixed signals

#8,725
Feb 11, 2009 9:51am Feb 11, 2009 9:51am

RedCabbage
| Joined Nov 2008 | Status: I support the resistance | 1,033 Posts

Quoting orcus

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Honestly, I'd probably be pretty excited -- it would suggest to me that buying pressure was dying out, there were fewer and fewer buyers at each successively higher price point, thus making me think that it was approaching a spot with a concentration of sellers; not coincidentally, right where I had marked out a support/resistance area.

This is what I mean by mixed signals

Ignored

Yes you're right buyers would be running out but so would the sellers, leaving the pair stuck in the range for a while. Hence no big reaction and you're stuck with an open trade rather than 80 pips in 30mins. It's about equal and opposite reactions.

I'm not experienced enough to be able to make the point here really. You are right there are lots of conflicting pieces of information, our ability to reason them out makes us superior to trading bots.

Your profile doesn't allow PM or email - drop me a line if you want to talk about it some more.

#8,726
Feb 11, 2009 10:02am Feb 11, 2009 10:02am

pingo28
| Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

AUDUSD @0.6600 looks like a good S/R Level and its a round number

#8,727
Feb 11, 2009 10:05am Feb 11, 2009 10:05am

seattlerust
| Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Gartley_Trader | 170 Posts

Quoting orcus

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This is what I mean by mixed signals

Ignored

You might be interested in another approach to this conundrum.

Last Friday, price moved up with momentum. If price is moving up with momentum, and there has already been a number of bullish candles behind you, then you can conclude that there are an abundance of buyers but not many sellers and probably few trades taking place. If there were equal numbers of sellers and buyers, price would pretty much be stabilized or consolidating with lots of trades taking place. Then it reached a level where it was rejected, with great momentum. This indicates that at that level of resistance, there were a great number of traders waiting with sell orders and they overwhelmed the buyers. No consolidation. Bang. The buyers dried up and the price dropped over 400 PIPs. But lots of sellers are still there with orders unfilled.

So, now comes Tuesday and the buyers are back, again with momentum. They hit the same levels and those sellers are still there in great numbers and again, overwhelm the buyers. Price drops again, but this time, only about 100 PIPs. Maybe the number of sellers is now drying up? Price now consolidates and we can conclude that at this slightly lower level, the numbers of buyers and sellers is about equal. Lots of trading.

Now, today, what is going to happen when price again rises back up to the same level? Are there enough sellers remaining to overwhelm the buyers? Are the buyers buying with great gusto now? What can we expect to happen now?

The market will tell us but perhaps our expectations should not be for a huge bearish trade now. Note also the support at 1.2410. A fair amount of history on the 4H chart.

SR

#8,728
Feb 11, 2009 10:35am Feb 11, 2009 10:35am

RedCabbage
| Joined Nov 2008 | Status: I support the resistance | 1,033 Posts

Quoting seattlerust

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You might be interested in another approach to this conundrum.

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Last Friday, price moved up with momentum. If price is moving up with momentum, and there has already been a number of bullish candles behind you, then you can conclude that there are an abundance of buyers but not many sellers and probably few trades taking place. If there were equal numbers of sellers and buyers, price would pretty much be stabilized or consolidating with lots of trades taking place. Then...

Ignored

Thanks SR

You can get the point across much clearer than I can.

#8,729
Feb 11, 2009 11:31am Feb 11, 2009 11:31am

left_trader
| Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 29 Posts

Quoting Shermenator

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Preety simple when looking at a charts trade the once that stand out and not the once that you have to try and figure out if its a level....those levels require patience if you find a level all the time means your not using the correct levels.

Ignored

tq for your attention shermenator..

Im missing some point here..

trade the once that stand out? whats thats suppose to mean?

if I find a level all the time.. its not a correct one.. its that mean the its lossing probability on become a storng level after its been use several time ?

tq..

I draw a line for u... a support line.. not a resistance one..

#8,730
Feb 11, 2009 12:17pm Feb 11, 2009 12:17pm

nyjetfan
| Joined Oct 2008 | Status: FXTrader | 426 Posts

Quoting left_trader

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tq for your attention shermenator..

Im missing some point here..

trade the once that stand out? whats thats suppose to mean?

if I find a level all the time.. its not a correct one.. its that mean the its lossing probability on become a storng level after its been use several time ?

tq..

Ignored

Leftrader - If you read the PDF and other past items in the thread, BRV (guy who started the thread) will state something to the effect that you want the S&R levels you are looking to trade to be so obvious that everyone sees them, as this will result in higher likelihood of others seeing and trading the same level. If you are seeing levels all the time, it means they aren't all going to be obvious, so you'll end up in some riskier trades (and most likely with a lower percentage of winning trades as a result).

#8,731
Feb 11, 2009 9:04pm Feb 11, 2009 9:04pm

Shermenator
Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts

Here is something .. This is a trade you whant to move stop to break even once it moves your way a bitt it....it either runs fast or you get break even....keep in mind the reange and the condition ...

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#8,732
Feb 11, 2009 9:12pm Feb 11, 2009 9:12pm

Shermenator
Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts

Quoting Shermenator

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Here is something .. This is a trade you whant to move stop to break even once it moves your way a bitt it....it either runs fast or you get break even....keep in mind the reange and the condition ...

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Ignored

Keep in mind their still might be a retest to the wick of the pinbar before th fall