DislikedI am canceling my plan of looking for shorts at the weekly pivot.. because I see that price action has crossed it and has not been rejected... being again above 1.30.... gives me bullish sentiment.
going against the trend (that means less leverage than normal trades used), I went long at 1.2800 because it is a good support pivot for today.Ignored
- #101
- Feb 3, 2009 8:56am Feb 3, 2009 8:56am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #102
- Feb 3, 2009 9:11am Feb 3, 2009 9:11am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
just woke up and all i gotta say is wow. must read the news as surely this is news related. In any case...i mentioned before 1.3060 as being strong support until broken and a retest would be nice to prove its resistance. I believe we have seen as close to a retest as possible and its all down here from now (been wrong before ill be wrong again). The newly developed sharp uptrend is crucial though, only a break of the lower wall as well as the first near horizontal support (1.2995 at this time...really the psychological 1.3000 area) will indicate a change in direction. I am already short because Ive been looking to short these levels since last wednesday. Not my best entry but ah well.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #103
- Feb 3, 2009 9:29am Feb 3, 2009 9:29am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
just woke up and all i gotta say is wow. must read the news as surely this is news related. In any case...i mentioned before 1.3060 as being strong support until broken and a retest would be nice to prove its resistance. I believe we have seen as close to a retest as possible and its all down here from now (been wrong before ill be wrong again). The newly developed sharp uptrend is crucial though, only a break of the lower wall as well as the first near horizontal support (1.2995 at this time...really the psychological 1.3000 area) will indicate...
. I waited for a break and retest of 1.30 and I'm short with tight SL. Won't be surprised if it gets hit, but then maybe a better entry? I suppose your SL is the usual 50?
- #104
- Feb 3, 2009 9:38am Feb 3, 2009 9:38am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
a clearer conclusion of my previous analysis. Yesterday I mentioned a potential M in the making. The 1.2805 was the neckline and so on. That did not occur so lets consider that the market was ranging between that strong temporary support and the newly developed resistance where the double top was (chose 1.2915 as it was the highest level not passed). The range broke to the upside in the process forming a new uptrend. connecting the lowest spikes you will notice the lower wall is far away to the downside from current levels. The upper wall which was extended at least once is now acting as strong resistance still (further confirming my entry was good). Price action stuck to the upper wall this whole time (which tells me this was surely news related). Currently I am looking for a return to the previous double top which was strong resistance (1.2915 or so) to prove it has become support. I may exit earlier. Stop loss 50 like always, tp ideally would be 80pips on this trade..to be seen
Sidenote=the downtrend broken big time..erased those lines at this time as they are irrelevant now...only this uptrend counts.
Edit: whoa that last spike i closed position!....50quick pips...good enough for now haha. My analysis still stands but pa moving too quick at this time.....flat and happy for now haha. Note that the middle wall which i have not drawn yet is being tapped right now
Sidenote=the downtrend broken big time..erased those lines at this time as they are irrelevant now...only this uptrend counts.
Edit: whoa that last spike i closed position!....50quick pips...good enough for now haha. My analysis still stands but pa moving too quick at this time.....flat and happy for now haha. Note that the middle wall which i have not drawn yet is being tapped right now
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #105
- Feb 3, 2009 9:53am Feb 3, 2009 9:53am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
...chose 1.2915 as it was the highest level not passed.....
- #106
- Feb 3, 2009 10:00am Feb 3, 2009 10:00am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
1.2915 would be the bottom of my latest upward channel. I have phased out 1/2 my position and will take another 1/4 soon if retrace and leave 1/4 just in case.
As for me....my next entry is not clearly determined yet as pa is too volatile...will post next move as pa develops
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #108
- Feb 3, 2009 10:10am Feb 3, 2009 10:10am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
good way to do it. once your pretty sure of direction scaling out gradually is the best way to do it....
Of course, sometimes it retraces then I find myself saying, "I wish I had taken all the profit"...
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
- #110
- Feb 3, 2009 10:19am Feb 3, 2009 10:19am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Nice thread Psi congz!
as for now, looking at the 5min chart a choppy bear flag is developing. that flag may continue to develop extending the triangle walls or it may just go back up. right now it suggests to me a return to 1.2915 is very likely and even a tap of the lower wall at 1.2885. I am looking for my next entry around there...possibly a small scalp long position as I feel the main trend is down from here for possibly the rest of the week. To be seen.
Edit: ah screw it i entered short again here with 1/3rd of a position...i feel confident we will see 1.2915 again and i feel its a risk worth takin...even if i get stopped out...no regrets
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #111
- Feb 3, 2009 10:22am Feb 3, 2009 10:22am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #112
- Feb 3, 2009 10:28am Feb 3, 2009 10:28am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
thanks. i hope that in the near future others will join the conversation with their own observations so we can compare data.
- #113
- Feb 3, 2009 10:32am Feb 3, 2009 10:32am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #115
- Feb 3, 2009 11:20am Feb 3, 2009 11:20am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
i love that emerging 4hrs candle and where it coming from. the famous 1.30xx areas. let's see if that channel gonna hold.
Didn't see that channel. I have the LTL but not the channel.
- #118
- Feb 3, 2009 11:44am Feb 3, 2009 11:44am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #120
- Feb 3, 2009 11:51am Feb 3, 2009 11:51am
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts