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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,741
  • Mar 21, 2007 1:55pm Mar 21, 2007 1:55pm
should be one more attempt to break the high looks like she could do it this time
  • #8,742
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:17pm Mar 21, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting 59fender
should be one more attempt to break the high looks like she could do it this time
Now at 77.....May be it will break it during the asian session.....
I am short but at 42 still got my position open with a large stop....
Plenty of resistance on the way...710,742 but surely we need a retracement before going higher...
Only my thoughts but what do I know

Best of luck mate
  • #8,743
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:37pm Mar 21, 2007 2:37pm
Before calling the bears back be aware of this:

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png

And - most important - today was holiday in Japan. So Asian stocks are likely to follow NYC and , ultimately, trigger further run for carries.

That's why no retracement was seen yet and that's why I'm leaving a long position (Cable) at least by Asian market open - possibly throughout the whole session.
  • #8,744
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:44pm Mar 21, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
Before calling the bears back be aware of this:

And - most important - today was holiday in Japan. So Asian stocks are likely to follow NYC and , ultimately, trigger further run for carries.
Sorry, I don't follow - you believe that Japanese markets will mirror US market action today? Why? Because they had a holiday? And what about the pseudo double top on your chart, a common signal of an imminent correction?

Not challenging you, just honest questions as I'm still relatively new to this.

Or, perhaps you're just biased because you're currently long... :
  • #8,745
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:55pm Mar 21, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting ~Shard~
Sorry, I don't follow - you believe that Japanese markets will mirror US market action today? Why? Because they had a holiday? And what about the pseudo double top on your chart, a common signal of an imminent correction?

Not challenging you, just honest questions as I'm still relatively new to this.

Or, perhaps you're just biased because you're currently long... :
No. I don't "pray" to profit. I'm already in fat enough profit not to depend on praying to go on.

Tokyo is mirroing NYC lately since Chinese meltdown, in the absence of bad news/rumors. Stocks up are related to investors getting back to risk and one of the most popular risky assets are the carries (majors/JPY).

Tokyo confirming bullish will trigger further run for carries.

This is the previous negative spiral turned to positive.

Last but not least: I read the fundamentals to figure out the bias. And I trade the techis afterwards. All techis are suggesting bearish 200 pips ago!
  • #8,746
  • Mar 21, 2007 2:56pm Mar 21, 2007 2:56pm
Cool, thanks for the insight, it's appreciated.
  • #8,747
  • Mar 21, 2007 4:04pm Mar 21, 2007 4:04pm
If the Neikei takes off and follows NYSE as it has lately, we will certainly see 9750 soon. Very little resistance between 9750 and 9900. I'm long at least until 9750.
  • #8,748
  • Mar 21, 2007 4:05pm Mar 21, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting ~Shard~
Sorry, I don't follow - you believe that Japanese markets will mirror US market action today? Why? Because they had a holiday? And what about the pseudo double top on your chart, a common signal of an imminent correction?

Not challenging you, just honest questions as I'm still relatively new to this.

Or, perhaps you're just biased because you're currently long... :
Just came out of the oven. I read that right, then...

Japanese Stocks May Rise, Led by Exporters After Fed Statement
By Makiko Suzuki
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks may climb after the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned its tilt toward higher interest rates, sparking the biggest rally in U.S. shares in eight months. Exporters such as Sony Corp. may pace gains.
``U.S. stocks jumped as investors now see signs that there will be a change in the Fed's policy,'' said Juichi Wako, a strategist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``Japanese markets, especially exporters, may follow suit.''
Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in June last traded at 17,465 in Chicago, up from the close of 17,140 in Osaka and 17,100 in Singapore. The Bank of New York Japan ADR Index, which tracks the nation's American depositary receipts, rose 1.5 percent.
On March 20, the Nikkei rose 0.9 percent to 17,163.20 and the broader Topix index gained 0.8 percent to 1708.29. Japan's markets were closed yesterday for the Spring Equinox public holiday.
Commodity-related stocks such as Inpex Holdings Inc. and Mitsubishi Corp. may rise after prices of crude and gold gained.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Fujitsu Ltd. may decline after they cut their full-year profit forecast. Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. may fall after saying an explosion occurred at its plant in Niigata Prefecture, injuring several employees.
  • #8,749
  • Mar 21, 2007 4:57pm Mar 21, 2007 4:57pm
Nice, thanks for the info!
  • #8,750
  • Mar 21, 2007 5:04pm Mar 21, 2007 5:04pm
hehehe... Freaking Euro just spooked the hell out of the stops above 3400 in the last 10 min to midnight GMT....

And they got really mad about it

I just love seeing sh#$@$ like that going on..
  • #8,751
  • Mar 21, 2007 5:13pm Mar 21, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting wep561
If the Neikei takes off and follows NYSE as it has lately, we will certainly see 9750 soon. Very little resistance between 9750 and 9900. I'm long at least until 9750.

What are the chances of a retracement to the to the 1.9650-1.9660 area first before the big move?
  • #8,752
  • Mar 21, 2007 5:37pm Mar 21, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting southernmind
What are the chances of a retracement to the to the 1.9650-1.9660 area first before the big move?
If you're short at those levels and are depending on "chances", get rid of them, unless you can afford a wide stop loss.

You're against a trend initiated at 9211, 6 bullish daily candles in a row already.
  • #8,753
  • Mar 21, 2007 5:45pm Mar 21, 2007 5:45pm
Just TP 1/3 of my remaining position for 82 pips. Letting another long at 82pips and the reload with 20 to run.

Mine field of buy limits left below 9650 and one buy stop above 9700 through Asia - gotta sleep, too...

I vote for "Triple Seven" by Europe open tomorrow
  • #8,754
  • Edited 6:53pm Mar 21, 2007 6:16pm | Edited 6:53pm
I'd look for a pullback in the US Stock Market on thursday after such a wide range upday. How much that effects Cable is another story.

Edit: Also Dow has retraced 61.8% of move down from high a month ago.
  • #8,755
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:30pm Mar 21, 2007 6:30pm
Quote
You're against a trend initiated at 9211, 6 bullish daily candles in a row already.

I was speaking of going long at those levels.
  • #8,756
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:50pm Mar 21, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting cesarnc
Before calling the bears back be aware of this:

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png

And - most important - today was holiday in Japan. So Asian stocks are likely to follow NYC and , ultimately, trigger further run for carries.

That's why no retracement was seen yet and that's why I'm leaving a long position (Cable) at least by Asian market open - possibly throughout the whole session.

That's good analysis, way to go!
  • #8,757
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:52pm Mar 21, 2007 7:52pm
I still envision this pair going up based upon the smaller time frame price action. Not only did it break 2/23/07 through 2/29/07 resistance, but it appears from my 3 hour charts and 1 hour charts that this area has now become support. This is a pretty good sign for long. I'm up 56 pips now, and expect to see this increase within the next 1-2 days.

Kevin
  • #8,758
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:52pm Mar 21, 2007 9:52pm
Sterling Outlook
23:36 GMT March 22 Cable opened in Asia around 1.9685, which were the highs seen in New York. Pullbacks have so far been limited to 1.9650 which was the previous high posted in this up move. The surprising MPC vote yesterday has the market somewhat confused, but cable seems to be forging ahead of a weaker USD. GBP/JPY opened around 231.45, just below the 231.65 high seen in NY and also where the 61.8% retracement of the 238.20-221.10 move lies. We saw GBP/JPY dip to 230.80 in early trading but it has since recovered slightly. EUR/GBP opened around .6800 and has traded .6797-.6812 thus far.
Talk in Asia continues to focus on supposedly very large Uridashi issuances in the next few weeks which will provide strong demand for currencies such as GBP. A break of the earlier mentioned technical level at 231.65 will also add model buyers into the equation. Order books in cable are light and the bigger players seem to be taking a sit-back-and-watch attitude at the moment though dips are expected to find renewed sovereign buying interest. Today s retail sales figures should add to the interest rate debate. [email protected]
  • #8,759
  • Mar 21, 2007 10:00pm Mar 21, 2007 10:00pm
The 4-hour chart is showing a rounded top on the MACD, giving a short signal. A temporary pullback might be coming...
  • #8,760
  • Mar 21, 2007 11:32pm Mar 21, 2007 11:32pm
Yeah, looking to buy a dip at .9655. I missed th move this afternoon during the rate announcment - damn!
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