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  • #60,141
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:38pm Jan 29, 2009 12:38pm
glad my SL was above the last high fractal.
Took some DD but very nicely added another at 3242 at the 1.28 0800 bar close.

Will we see 2800 area ?

Down baby down....[/quote]

I am targeting 2860 as my first TP. That is a retrace to the 76.4 of the recent move up to 4720. 2760 is my next target, as that would be a 100% retest of that move. Of course we need to see a break of 2900 first. beyond 2760, not much in the way until 2500 or so. JMHO

I am short since the clean break of 3000 at 2981.
  • #60,142
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:41pm Jan 29, 2009 12:41pm
US STOCKS BROADLY LOWER] going into the close, with financials still worst among the major sectors on concerns over cost to any govt bank rescue plan. Ugly data and poor earnings adds to the gloomy trade, with Fri to bring more corp results from likes of Exxon, P&G, Honeywell. Also stocks on track to end January well in the red, some -7% for Dow and over -4% on Nasdaq. Those that believe in the January barometer hope this this year will be exception to the rule that how first month goes, so does the year. For the past 40 years, the performance of the S&P 500 in January has predicted the full year, with 5 times it did not work - 1966, 1968, 1982, 2001 and 2003.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,143
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:43pm Jan 29, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting psiholog
i have a question for you all. would you like me to start a thread where i fully describe my strategy? (as hard to explain as it is). i would keep posting here though but that could be used as a reference for what i do. if at least five people want me to ...i will do it as soon as i find the time






(You can take that as a yes)
  • #60,144
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:44pm Jan 29, 2009 12:44pm
I'm having a hard time with the shorts because I see that gold and the eur/usd are diverging... I havent studied this divergence much but I do know that the tendency is to pull back together...

Any input?
  • #60,145
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:48pm Jan 29, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
I'm having a hard time with the shorts because I see that gold and the eur/usd are diverging... I havent studied this divergence much but I do know that the tendency is to pull back together...

Any input?
I'd be careful on "rules" for one reason. What used to happen all the time has been re-written several times over the past few months. Ex. the eur-usd used to coincide with the dow during the US session. Now it seems opposite. Then the eur-usd was linked to oil. the eur and gbp used to pretty much mirror each other, but not today... Just trade what you see. Your chart is telling you the truth, just don't try to read into it. IMO
  • #60,146
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:48pm Jan 29, 2009 12:48pm
Drop will come soon!!
  • #60,147
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:50pm Jan 29, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
Drop will come soon!!
Thanks. Could you make it a darker thicker line for a really big drop....
  • #60,148
  • Jan 29, 2009 12:52pm Jan 29, 2009 12:52pm
Where are your profit targets at for the shorts? I had a short on from 3238 that I closed after the bump... I dont konw why I didn't just scale back..
  • #60,149
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:02pm Jan 29, 2009 1:02pm
It is not my important chart and I use it as M30, only change to M15 because we can see it better.

All that touches mean something, lot of people only see outside Trendlines, but we must explore lines with several touches.


RSI line is holding too!!

Now we must see if we can see a False Break to the upside or not.
Everything can happen, but I see at least + 100 pips down.
To all shorts around 1.2968/88, set SL +/- 33/53 pips!!

See you guys tomorrow and GL!!
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  • #60,150
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:04pm Jan 29, 2009 1:04pm
correlations don't mean as much in these tumultuous times.just look at the split up between the gbp and eur last night.
silver up nice in the last 5 minutes!go up baby! daddy wants to catch a long term trend!
  • #60,151
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:14pm Jan 29, 2009 1:14pm
thanks for the replies guys...i will work on posting my strategy as soon as possible (probably during the weekend). for now...heres my current analysis.

the us stock market closed, we have entered what is usually the dead hours up until asian session (where this entire week its been dead as well). the previous downtrend has been broken but no attempt to go higher has been made. instead a bear flag very visible on the 15min time frame has taken its place. a break of this triangle (which is usually to the downside) is what im looking for. we can go either way here and currently 1.2985 is acting as strong resistance and the current low is strong support. im still holding my small short position as a break down could lead to a nice bear move. If we break up, I am still looking for 1.3060 to be retested to prove its become resistance where a larger short position may be put into play. good pippin all..ill be back during the asian or euro session.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #60,152
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:17pm Jan 29, 2009 1:17pm
Thanks your posts are always helpful
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #60,153
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:36pm Jan 29, 2009 1:36pm
coralations dont mean much now but the eg have to equalise some before large movements (because of news) they gravitate together then break out. like the move today with gbp.when the dust settles if the eu wants to go lower the gbp will follow and both have to move in tadem most of the time. there will be times it doesnt work but it will go back to this orbit..and right now the gbp is proping the eu up some.it can move but slower then it normaly would.. when they equalise.. thats when you bigger moves happen on either gu or eu...the direction of the eg breakout could help in the most profitable pair.. the weaker of the 2 in this breakout is usually the better to short. or visa versa long.. depending on what direction your taken vs usd..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,154
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:43pm Jan 29, 2009 1:43pm
Looks to me like it's squeezing really tight between the lower triangle trend around 2949 and resistance at 2954. Probably a breakout after it gets out...
  • #60,155
  • Edited 2:58pm Jan 29, 2009 1:52pm | Edited 2:58pm
Now I am seeing another thing at my H4 chart.
I am starting to like those BB performance.

1.2888, add some more powder to the downside, like 55/75 pips, see how price will act around these levels and the storm I am talking for some time will then be in their full power to 1.24xx or 1.34xx. This will be probably a fast move!!

This is how Forex works, do not enter in the middle or at the end of the waves, you must anticipate the moves, found the right levels to stop and then if goes in your direction set TS, and take PF in some nice resistances.

I will be more confident if I see 1.2933 by the end of this day!!

PS . Like all Storms then comes the "bonanza" and Calm!!! We saw some gusts before, big deal!!!
Be careful, this is my personal view, So not start to short heavily or doing some strange things with your account.
No one will be rich by trading Forex, Believe me, only the rich one will be more rich, but at actual times, I doubt it!!!

Follow always the rules!!!!

Editing: My actual trades are
All shorts 1.3740, 1.3110, 1.2965
PF Targets 1.2888, 1.2806, 1.2750
  • #60,156
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:56pm Jan 29, 2009 1:56pm
Daily TF: Resume of Short
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  • #60,157
  • Jan 29, 2009 1:58pm Jan 29, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting psiholog
thanks for the replies guys...i will work on posting my strategy as soon as possible (probably during the weekend). for now...heres my current analysis.

the us stock market closed, we have entered what is usually the dead hours up until asian session (where this entire week its been dead as well). the previous downtrend has been broken but no attempt to go higher has been made. instead a bear flag very visible on the 15min time frame has taken its place. a break of this triangle (which is usually to the downside) is what im looking for. we can...

hey there psi is not flagpole's lenght actually a little more than 150 pips ?
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #60,158
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:09pm Jan 29, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting djambazov84
hey there psi is not flagpole's lenght actually a little more than 150 pips ?
It is, roughly 150..why do you ask?

if we do continue south i see strong support at 1.2850 as that was a previous battle point...3times

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #60,159
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:33pm Jan 29, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
coralations dont mean much now but the eg have to equalise some before large movements (because of news) they gravitate together then break out. like the move today with gbp.when the dust settles if the eu wants to go lower the gbp will follow and both have to move in tadem most of the time. there will be times it doesnt work but it will go back to this orbit..and right now the gbp is proping the eu up some.it can move but slower then it normaly would.....
I really appreciate your input my friend, its always very helpful for me.
  • #60,160
  • Jan 29, 2009 2:51pm Jan 29, 2009 2:51pm
Is support at .2932 going to get broken soon. I have a long position at 1.2971 I have not gotten rid of and was looking for a large break up before the drop. I am new to forex and have lost 200 pips today after making 400 in a three day period. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. I feel if the 2932 breaks it is a long ride down (which I dont want added onto the bag I already have) Everthing I am seeing shows a nasty end for me but is there no retrace going to happen?
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