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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,861
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:51pm Mar 18, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting Vensik
Interesting, I am looking for somewhere in 219 as well.
Is it possible we are turning to the upside that will break 228 soon?
  • #1,862
  • Mar 18, 2007 9:52pm Mar 18, 2007 9:52pm
Quoting CIORIMAU--
charts
Can't read your chart very well.
  • #1,863
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:02pm Mar 18, 2007 10:02pm
Stay out until tomorrow, at least, that's my only advice for now. We have BOJ coming up, plus the Fed, it's time to back up and take stock of your trading, it's not time to be in the market unless you see something extraordinary...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,864
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:06pm Mar 18, 2007 10:06pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Stay out until tomorrow, at least, that's my only advice for now. We have BOJ coming up, plus the Fed, it's time to back up and take stock of your trading, it's not time to be in the market unless you see something extraordinary...
I see.
  • #1,865
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:12pm Mar 18, 2007 10:12pm
GBP/JPY is at about the parity level right now. I use a combinative fundamental/technical method, and I see a loaf of bread costing the same in London as it does in Tokyo right now. It's all about purchasing power parity.

We're looking for divergence in that, and it doesn't exist right now. Just wait. Later in the week it might get silly, then again, it might not. Stop trying to predict and learn how to react...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,866
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:16pm Mar 18, 2007 10:16pm
''Although the action was rumored on Friday, the proactive move spurred a round of Japanese Yen buying across the board on the open. The second event had a drastic effect on the Japanese Yen, but in the opposite direction. In a report completely misconstrued by the market, participants mistakenly thought that there was a nuclear plant accident in Japan. This forced an intense round of belligerent buying in USDJPY and the JPY crosses where the currencies hit their respective highs''
Sorry about my english...
  • #1,867
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:23pm Mar 18, 2007 10:23pm
I'm going to look for this to go long, I think, while sitting it out. I never make predictions. If it actually approaches 230 I will short the hell out of it. In the meantime, AUD/USD is psychotically overextended so I will wait for a swing trade on it...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,868
  • Mar 18, 2007 10:35pm Mar 18, 2007 10:35pm
Quoting dukeofdents
I'm going to look for this to go long, I think, while sitting it out. I never make predictions. If it actually approaches 230 I will short the hell out of it. In the meantime, AUD/USD is psychotically overextended so I will wait for a swing trade on it...
Duke,

Don't forget you just remind us the BOJ coming up, plus the Fed.
  • #1,869
  • Mar 18, 2007 11:24pm Mar 18, 2007 11:24pm
Well, my one month demo on this pair is just about up. Started last month on the 20th till today - statement attached. I will continue the demo account into the next month, if my results continue at this pace, I will definitely add it to my live trading.

As previously stated, trading 1 mini lot for every $1,000 in equity @ 100:1 leverage. Daily chart analysis (no indicators) with a heavy preference on longs for added swap rate.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GJ.zip   7 KB | 367 downloads
  • #1,870
  • Mar 18, 2007 11:44pm Mar 18, 2007 11:44pm
The COT data for both the pound and the yen would suggest that a short of GJ is the more likely trade direction. Of course this does not necessarily reflect the coming news.
  • #1,871
  • Mar 19, 2007 12:04am Mar 19, 2007 12:04am
Quoting moonchild
The COT data for both the pound and the yen would suggest that a short of GJ is the more likely trade direction. Of course this does not necessarily reflect the coming news.
Dear, i can"t understand you
short from where to where?
  • #1,872
  • Mar 19, 2007 12:55am Mar 19, 2007 12:55am
Quoting mr.marketz
Well, my one month demo on this pair is just about up. Started last month on the 20th till today - statement attached. I will continue the demo account into the next month, if my results continue at this pace, I will definitely add it to my live trading.

As previously stated, trading 1 mini lot for every $1,000 in equity @ 100:1 leverage. Daily chart analysis (no indicators) with a heavy preference on longs for added swap rate.
Can someone please explain how do you trade 1 mini lot with $1000 equity @ 100:1 leverage?? On G/U that would be 10:1.
  • #1,873
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:10am Mar 19, 2007 1:10am
Quoting wep561
Can someone please explain how do you trade 1 mini lot with $1000 equity @ 100:1 leverage?? On G/U that would be 10:1.
WEP when I say 100:1 leverage, that's the brokers deal, you are correct in the sense that I am 'GEARED' @ 10:1. The reason I believe it's important to specify the brokers leverage is so people don't get margined out. In other words if the broker provided me with 200:1 leverage, I would put on trades of 2 mini lots instead. The higher the leverage from the broker, the more slack I can afford to give myself when a position goes against me.

Hope that helps,
MM
  • #1,874
  • Mar 19, 2007 1:25am Mar 19, 2007 1:25am
Quoting mr.marketz
WEP when I say 100:1 leverage, that's the brokers deal, you are correct in the sense that I am 'GEARED' @ 10:1. The reason I believe it's important to specify the brokers leverage is so people don't get margined out. In other words if the broker provided me with 200:1 leverage, I would put on trades of 2 mini lots instead. The higher the leverage from the broker, the more slack I can afford to give myself when a position goes against me.

Hope that helps,
MM
Marketz-Thanks for your explaination. So if I am understanding you correctly, you are trading at 10:1 but with 100:1 offered by your broker you are able to absord twice the drawdown of a 50:1 account.
The reason I asked is because I'v never heard of anyone actually trading G/J at 100:1 and surviving. Thanks
  • #1,875
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:04am Mar 19, 2007 2:04am
We are looking at a new head and shoulders pattern in my eyes on 15 30 1hr...
Waiting for it to finish the head and neck first. then will confirm.
  • #1,876
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:10am Mar 19, 2007 2:10am
Quoting wep561
Marketz-Thanks for your explaination. So if I am understanding you correctly, you are trading at 10:1 but with 100:1 offered by your broker you are able to absord twice the drawdown of a 50:1 account.
The reason I asked is because I'v never heard of anyone actually trading G/J at 100:1 and surviving. Thanks
Exactly right Wep. Coincidently, nobody can survive a 100:1 gearing on any pair.
  • #1,877
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:16am Mar 19, 2007 2:16am
Quoting trader8686
Is it possible we are turning to the upside that will break 228 soon?
As my last post said, I locked in and went to bed. Out with the lockin + the 100 pips from the trade over the weekend. Not a bad Sunday. Now that it's above 228.00 I would like to just watch and see what happens. I'll focus on the AUD/USD right now.

I like this level on the AUD for entry but I don't have a target. I don't like not having a target.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,878
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:24am Mar 19, 2007 2:24am
Do you think aud/usd will go up or down?

Quoting Vensik
As my last post said, I locked in and went to bed. Out with the lockin + the 100 pips from the trade over the weekend. Not a bad Sunday. Now that it's above 228.00 I would like to just watch and see what happens. I'll focus on the AUD/USD right now.

I like this level on the AUD for entry but I don't have a target. I don't like not having a target.
Whatever you do, just keep doing it in a dicipline manner.
  • #1,879
  • Mar 19, 2007 2:54am Mar 19, 2007 2:54am
Yes.

I don't want to derail the thread, however look at the .7980-.8000 level on the week chart.

By Yes, I mean if it breaks it could be explosive. However there is a tight stop shorting off this level, and the currency fell off it 300 pips last time it tapped the level.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #1,880
  • Mar 19, 2007 4:19am Mar 19, 2007 4:19am
Quoting moonchild
The COT data for both the pound and the yen would suggest that a short of GJ is the more likely trade direction. Of course this does not necessarily reflect the coming news.
moonchild,
I just waked up. Is the news out, yet?
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