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  • #53,321
  • Jan 4, 2009 5:58am Jan 4, 2009 5:58am
Quoting Atondra
The price is 1.3920 at http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
I've just checked http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi the price is 1.38535 anyway lets see what happens when trade starts.
  • #53,322
  • Jan 4, 2009 6:14am Jan 4, 2009 6:14am
hello.
don't believe morgan stanley rubbish.... do you really think they are going to tell you that information? heh... just trade what you see and follow your system... don't trade monthly charts following a text from who knows where.... unless you want to waste your time...
many pips for this week to everybody! 2009 is going to be great.
  • #53,323
  • Jan 4, 2009 7:02am Jan 4, 2009 7:02am
Quoting Pyramus
I've just checked http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi the price is 1.38535 anyway lets see what happens when trade starts.
I prefer waiting for the trade to start than checking quotes at this hour...
  • #53,324
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:14am Jan 4, 2009 10:14am
Quoting Yohay
I prefer waiting for the trade to start than checking quotes at this hour...

Yeah look again... up to 1.3934...

that must be some electronic exchange posting a weekend rate that was accepted by both parties, does not reflect the value in a liquid market.

Right now, the value in the liquid market is a mystery
  • #53,325
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:17am Jan 4, 2009 10:17am
i'm telling yall, the recent war and oil supplies are going to drive it up.
  • #53,326
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:28am Jan 4, 2009 10:28am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Yeah look again... up to 1.3934...

that must be some electronic exchange posting a weekend rate that was accepted by both parties, does not reflect the value in a liquid market.

Right now, the value in the liquid market is a mystery
ya know, just because our broker is closed, it doesn't mean people are not transacting currency.

the prices you're seeing are likely bid/ask for real money transactions right now.

you should have seen the spreads on new years day.

87.00/92.50 dollar yen
130/140 euro
139/147 cable

those were real prices at which monies could be exchanged at that time
for those few hours where liquidity was very scarce.

Later today, a 100 pip gap UP on the euro wouldn't surprise.

If 140 prints before 138, that would likely be a safe gap to fade,
atleast until the gap fills and then it's anyone's ballgame on a Sunday.
  • #53,327
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:46am Jan 4, 2009 10:46am
By the way:

Regarding price, there are two "tribes" of traders right now.

The first one is looking at a feed that stopped on Friday at 4PM New York time at around 1.3850
Maybe that's when the broker shut down and went home ?

The other is looking at the price at 5PM eastern Friday at around 1.3920, some 70 pips higher
and was the "last price" recorded for the session. I'm using this one for pivot calculations.

There's possibly a third tribe, although debated.
It's A Tribe Called Quest and the only thing we're sure of is
that they left their wallet in El Segundo and they trade with MB.
  • #53,328
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:59am Jan 4, 2009 10:59am
Quoting sed34
i'm telling yall, the recent war and oil supplies are going to drive it up.
I totally agree.
The war in Gaza will have an impact on Forex.
  • #53,329
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:03am Jan 4, 2009 11:03am
Quoting sed34
i'm telling yall, the recent war and oil supplies are going to drive it up.
And I would not take your word for it even if I bet a dollar, simply because from my experience oil does not play a great role in eur/usd pricing.
  • #53,330
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:07am Jan 4, 2009 11:07am
My broker is open the price is 1.3904 bid 1.3921 ask, still large spreads due to premarket illiquidity.
  • #53,331
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:08am Jan 4, 2009 11:08am
Quoting sed34
i'm telling yall, the recent war and oil supplies are going to drive it up.
maybe not as much for the euro, but the top in dollar/canadian @ 1.30
seems to suggest we'll move higher in crude going forward.

Definitive break and close below 1.20 U/C and Cad Yen back to the 80's
would confirm this IMO.

Euro/CAD is already pointing in this direction.
  • #53,332
  • Edited 12:03pm Jan 4, 2009 11:28am | Edited 12:03pm
Too soon to say this H&S will going to happen but this is a possibility

http://i39.tinypic.com/szx3yp.png

  • #53,333
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:48am Jan 4, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Iced Earth
Too soon to say this H&S will going to happen but this is a possibility

http://i39.tinypic.com/5kjaz5.png

The possibility is there but not in the near future. Maybe next year
  • #53,334
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:51am Jan 4, 2009 11:51am
Quoting toshi
maybe not as much for the euro, but the top in dollar/canadian @ 1.30
seems to suggest we'll move higher in crude going forward.

Definitive break and close below 1.20 U/C and Cad Yen back to the 80's
would confirm this IMO.
Nice box play there, if a break above 1.2396 or below 1.1814.

Right now my chart looks like a move higher, even if just short term.
  • #53,335
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:54am Jan 4, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Iced Earth
Too soon to say this H&S will going to happen but this is a possibility ........
Shrink that chart down please, otherwise I (and maybe others) might have to add you to ignore list, to avoid over-scrooling post after post.
  • #53,336
  • Jan 4, 2009 11:59am Jan 4, 2009 11:59am
Quoting SunTrader
Nice box play there, if a break above 1.2396 or below 1.1814.
I think you're right on the money there.
I can't establish shorts yet because of the 120 to 130 range is still in play.
Until the 120's are abandoned, were still in this range and lacking directional confirmation.
It could bounce around in here for a while before breaking back into the teens.
Or it could happen this week ? I'm watching closely for a break, a retest and a plunge.

In Euro Cad, that double top @ 175 needs to hold to further confirm.

::::Sorry about this post being in the Euro USD thread, but it applies to the Euro
in relation to the Dollar, by way of the Canadian/USD cross, as linked to Crude oil::::::

see, how it all connects ?? evry'thing is evry'thing, can ya' dig it ?
  • #53,337
  • Jan 4, 2009 12:05pm Jan 4, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
Shrink that chart down please, otherwise I (and maybe others) might have to add you to ignore list, to avoid over-scrooling post after post.
I shrank it down, hope it be OK now
  • #53,338
  • Jan 4, 2009 1:16pm Jan 4, 2009 1:16pm
Short play for me as of right now, the 1.3830 level is likely to break today.
  • #53,339
  • Jan 4, 2009 1:16pm Jan 4, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting quickh23a
EUR/GBP is what should drive the eur this year, once we hit parity,
we should see a large corection that will boost GBP against all pairs and
weaken eur i dont see that cross sustaines past parity
What about a "spike" past parity ?

You know the kind I'm talking about.

What would be more bullish for the pound than to see it trade
under par to the euro for a few days or even a few hours
and then sharply reverse and not trade those prices for a week or two,
followed by more retacement ?

Once it hits the front page of the Financial Times,
Would that not be the screaming indicator of the year ?

In '92, UK was kicked out of the ERM anyway. They don't want back in.
With current economic conditions, UK might not even meet EU standards to join,
if they wanted to. I don't think they want to. Any Brits want to join the EU ? Anybody ?
  • #53,340
  • Jan 4, 2009 1:27pm Jan 4, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting iii
Short play for me as of right now, the 1.3830 level is likely to break today.
How high do you think it will go? (towards resistance before taking a short)
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