Trading aud/nzd successfully

The aud/nzd has had such big spreads and is trading in such a tight range it is not worth trading right now. So HAPPY NEW YEAR, I am going to the beach.

im back from Bali boys, good to see not much to read up on..... not that im in any mood it was a magic mushroom, pseudoephedrine and alcohol binge for 9 days, yewwww!

Happy new year, I hope it will be a good one but I have my doubts. For the economy and business it doesnt look good. Because I run a school I will ok for 2nd semester but if business does not pick up by summer I could be looking at a very tough fall.

I am not an expert by any means but I thought I would share some thoughts over what I see coming. Even though traders think they run the markets that is simply not true. The Forex was created so that businesses could trade currencies and do business with one another around the globe. Since businesses will be slowing down for the forseeable future I expect the following to happen:

1. Since there will be less money being exchanged market swings will be bigger than normal. This may not make sense but with fewer exchanges there will be more gaps between trades. This will cause bigger swings because when a big exchange does happen there will be fewer buyers and sellers out there so price has to go deeper to find enough buyer/sellers to handle the exchange.
2. If #1 is true then brokers/banks will have to enlarge the spread to cover their butts on trades. We are really seeing this during the Christmas season right now. I just saw the EUR/GBP at 12 pips. I wanted to do a buy but backed off with the wider spread.
3. With bigger swings and wider spreads it will be more difficult for my EAs because they are based on prices staying within a certain range and the spacing of the reentries will be affected by the wider spreads.

I am going to continue to sit on the sidelines and demo the first week of January to test out my out look for the new year. If I am wrong then maybe the 2nd or 3rd week I will jump back in live. If not I will try to just manually trade for a while and see if I can catch a couple of these big moves. I wish you all the best, I have always tried to be honest with my EAs and report what I think. I hope I am wrong.

nanningbob

nanningbob,
Does this include 35*20.I will be very grateful to know because i just finished demo trading it and the results were good.And I'm planning to go live next week.

All the EAs will work as long as the spreads stay within range. If the spreads continue high though it makes it difficult. I will demo the first week and then decide if I want to go live again.

Does any know if anything "strange" happened around 6:00am GMT to 8:00am GMT? I woke up this morning and found a $475 loss in my demo account. Looking at the detail I noticed the EA opened and closed 330 trades during this time period, all for very small losses. The stop loss was not hit on any of the trades, yet the trades were closed for losses. I've attached a statement. The trades seem to be all from the 35x20 Buy EA.

Any ideas on what caused this?

I open your xls sheet and it states u made 199.97 Profit. Looks great to me...

Maybe I'm missing something?

Wishing you all friends here A Very Happy and Profitable New Year.

Yes, overall it's a 199.97 profit, but before that "strange" occurence on 12/31/08 between 6am through 8am GMT, I had a $675 profit, which was phenomenal so far. I'm not complaining about the net result, just curious what caused it and if it could have been avoided.

Does anyone have any ideas? Did anyone else experience this during that time frame?

I took a look at your spread sheet and I have never seen anything like that. I dont think it is the program because it went back to working like it was. If it hadnt gone back to working like it was you could have looked to see if the program had corrupted. I would send to IBFX and see what they have to say? You also could take it to programming forum and see what they have to say.

Hi Bob,

Thanks for the reply. It's very strange. I have 2 EA's working on the same demo account, 35x20 and the 50x15 on 4 separate charts.

I can tell by the lot size of the trades that it seems like the 330 buy trades were opened only by the 35x20. The 50x15 acted as usual, so I'm not sure it's the feed from IBFX.

Go into the program and make sure your Magic numbers are significantly different. I dont think that would have anything to do with it but you can start there.

Hi Bob,

I checked the program and sure enough, the buy and sell EA for the 35x20 had the same Magic Number. I must have loaded the same .set file by accident when I increased the lot size. Funny thing is, the EA's have been working great with this .set file the past 3 weeks with no problems, until now.

Thank you for your help.

Do you think that was the cause?

[quote=acosta2269;2446790]Hi Bob,

I checked the program and sure enough, the buy and sell EA for the 35x20 had the same Magic Number. I must have loaded the same .set file by accident when I increased the lot size. Funny thing is, the EA's have been working great with this .set file the past 3 weeks with no problems, until now.

Thank you for your help.


Yeah I am surprised it was working. Dont know how you did it but you probably made MT4 programming history with that one. If that doesnt solve the problem you got me..

With Israel invading Gaza you could see some crazy gaps Monday. I would let the smoke clear before entering any trades.

Alright you little good for nothing @#$%^%$$##%$#$%%% I got you now. I have a major modification of my system. I think you will love this idea and I believe it will work. After watching my 50x30 not take profit all day because the spreads kept widening. I decided to change my attack. borrowing the concept of a grid EA and adding it to my system, I found a way you can trade bigger lots with less risk. The EA here is set for .10 on a micro account and those that have standard or minis need to change to .01 or you will be trading dollars. OK here are the factors.
White line 40 MA, green lines 80 pips above and below the 40 MA. The EA will not trade between the two green lines. The green line above the 40 MA will enter your first level sell. The green line below the 40 MA will be first level buy. The yellow lines are entries 2-4 and the red line is your last reentry. The last big fat red line is your stop loss, 150 pips from first entry. The stop loss is based on entrance not the fat red line, once you take profit and it reenters anywhere above/below the green lines the stop loss is always set 150 pips away. So if your next trade enters at 120 pips above the white line your stop loss will be 40 pips above the thicker red line. GOT IT!!


Rules are very much the same. No weekends (close sometime Friday), wait until after the gaps on Monday, watch out for interest rate changes in the news or some other blockbuster news story. You can eyeball the backtest and see price rarely goes beyond the first red line but now you should be able to trade 24/5. Range above the white 230, range below white line 230 for a total range of 460, almost twice of all my previous versions. Excel program is attached to try out the numbers. Remember the Aud/Nzd trades 65% of the numbers shown in the Excel program at this time.

So you only trade above the green and below the green. No trading between the green lines. There maybe slow days you get no trades but most days there are at least 2-7 trades. I was able to expand the range of the EA without adding more and more margin. I was also able to increase the profitability of each trade without expanding the risk of previous versions. In fact I have decreased the risk. Have fun and enjoy testing this one. HAPPY NEW YEAR GUYS. (PS. I already am trying this philosophy with different numbers on other currency pairs.) WE live to trade profitably again. I love range trading and now I can range trade any currency by putting the stop loss beyond any currencies range. (yeah yeah I know very wishful thinking.)

This should defeat the high spreads. Price always comes back to its medium.

Please demo test and see if I have made any mistakes. I can see guys trading 1.00 lots down the road if this works. Now we be talkin real money folks.

BOB

So we would turn on the SELL ea when price moves above the top green line and the BUY ea when price moves below the bottom green line?

Just want to make sure that I get the just of it.

NO this one is one ea trades both ways. You only need one chart, The EA will enter and exit trades automatically for you. You just turn it on and let it run.

Awesome. That was what I was worried about actually... I was thinking what if it goes past the lines while I sleep.

This is very good. I look forward to testing it out this week.