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EUR/USD flagging south this coming week

  • #21
  • Dec 14, 2008 11:37am Dec 14, 2008 11:37am
it truely looks as if it broke out upwards.. but if my wave count is right we should see it moving a little higher on the 4h TF and then way more south .. waiting for a turning signal on the 4h chart.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #22
  • Dec 14, 2008 1:49pm Dec 14, 2008 1:49pm
Does it really matter?

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teb
  • #23
  • Dec 14, 2008 3:11pm Dec 14, 2008 3:11pm
If trend continues then looks like resistance at 1.38730 If long on this then a stop should be around 1.32440 where there is support. Should prices decide to head south with a decisive break of 1.32440 area then the target would be 1.29900

Basically this is my gameplan for this week. I am biased that the euro will rise as congress appears to be doing everything it can to weaken the dollar. But as forex is a constantly adapting market i am always flexible

The risk/reward ratio is great either way and depending on your trading style just time your entry accordingly.
  • #24
  • Dec 15, 2008 1:28pm Dec 15, 2008 1:28pm
I think it's safe to say now that they were continuation patterns!

who is thinking of some selling now?
  • #25
  • Dec 15, 2008 1:51pm Dec 15, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
I think it's safe to say now that they were continuation patterns!

who is thinking of some selling now?
By definition, any time you have long wicks like that....it's not. But that's neither here nor there.

What really matters is if people, like myself, who thought the other way waited for set ups to short. I did, it didn't come. Oh well. No trade, no loss.

The next area is where we are right now. (1.37-38) If that gives, then certainly we are going right back up. However.....there's a few possible problems with that scenario as well.

For starters - Europe is releasing inflation numbers this week. And I know it might come as a surprise, but if those numbers don't add up to the recent comment that started all this.....right back down we go. In fact, we will probably go hard.

I could be wrong, but that's the beauty of knowing what set ups to take, and which ones to avoid - you save money that way. As a side note, for those of you who know why this matters.....EUR/GBP is starting to show a few possible signs of weakness.....too early to tell though.

I will say however - now we are going to see the truth in this pair....these next few days should set the tone for next year.

Cheers,

Clockwork
  • #26
  • Dec 16, 2008 12:52am Dec 16, 2008 12:52am
Quoting clockwork71
By definition, any time you have long wicks like that....it's not. But that's neither here nor there.
clock

a tail has nothing todo with a price pattern mate. as you can view the price on line bar and candle. so on a line where is the wick so again they were trend cont patterns and funny enough they were confirmed.

funny that hey......
  • #27
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:48pm Dec 17, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting clockwork71
I will say however - now we are going to see the truth in this pair....these next few days should set the tone for next year.
So you think the Euro will hit 2.0 then next year? I'm curious why you think that the activity of the past few days will predict the trend of 2009?
  • #28
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:52pm Dec 17, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting Mr. KISS
So you think the Euro will hit 2.0 then next year? I'm curious why you think that the activity of the past few days will predict the trend of 2009?

2.0? No. I don't think this at all.

1.38, 1.42, and 1.48 were all levels to watch is all. Another thought that has kept me out of this is that it IS the last real trading week of the year. A lot of larger funds will shore up the books at the end of the year. (Add the Fed in the mix.....and then you get who knows?)

When in doubt, stay out.

I did notice that the EUR/CHF was bouncing all over the place today, spreads that is. It's normally pretty stable, which tells me liquidity could be an issue at the moment.

Or, I could just have a crappy broker. :-)
  • #29
  • Dec 17, 2008 1:54pm Dec 17, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
clock

a tail has nothing todo with a price pattern mate. as you can view the price on line bar and candle. so on a line where is the wick so again they were trend cont patterns and funny enough they were confirmed.

funny that hey......
UNTIL it's broken, it shows failed attempts. When we were talking, they hadn't been broken.

But as a general rule, when a trade goes like that, I tend to take the surer trade. And did. After all, since we are NOT actually trading anything, it never matters if our profits are in Yen, Euros, or Francs.

Clock
  • #30
  • Dec 17, 2008 3:51pm Dec 17, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting clockwork71
UNTIL it's broken, it shows failed attempts. When we were talking, they hadn't been broken.

But as a general rule, when a trade goes like that, I tend to take the surer trade. And did. After all, since we are NOT actually trading anything, it never matters if our profits are in Yen, Euros, or Francs.

Clock
Do you actully understand what a pattern is Clock? it's the shape that forms. of corse it has to break out to confim it.

tails have no relevence in trading pure patterns as if it breaks out it's a confirm if it fails it fails. like mentioned you can trade them on a line chart.

Please look up bullish and bearish cont patterns. or read John J Murphy Technical analysis of the finalcial markets.

This convo is going in circles and i think we are both talking about differnt things.

I am out all the best
  • #31
  • Edited 11:27am Dec 20, 2008 10:21am | Edited 11:27am
Another interesting continuation flag pattern forming on the 38.2 fib. Be interesting to see if it does drop off the edge again this coming week. It looked like it might find support here on Friday afternoon, but when you go to the smaller time frame chart, when hit the down trend line to a pip, found resistance again. Last hour of trading for the week however, price action may be less reliable.

This could however, be a good week for Dollar bulls to buy up at bargain prices ahead of next year. But worth remembering that market may be much less liquid over the holidays, so charting may be less reliable, but also volatile for price action. Nevertheless, the old trading floor adage.... "don't get caught short in a thin market"... meaning, if you are looking to sell Euro's and there are no buyers, it will plummet. Forming a nice head and shoulders pattern too.

p.s. if you shift the trend line over to pick up the outer edge of the 50.0 fib, there is more room for price to consolidate next week before continuing south
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  • #32
  • Dec 20, 2008 12:04pm Dec 20, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Another interesting continuation flag pattern forming on the 38.2 fib. Be interesting to see if it does drop off the edge again this coming week. It looked like it might find support here on Friday afternoon, but when you go to the smaller time frame chart, when hit the down trend line to a pip, found resistance again.

I have been checking forums and different analysis and they all show the same. There is a strong support level at .3877.
Alligator’s jaw has started to close in 1H and 4H but still wide open in 1D.
This can confirm the trend correction for intraday trading on Monday and the trend prolongation next week.
I’m expecting a retraction towards the .4237 level.
I won’t take any position until a retraction signal is given.
Monday morning & coffee awaits.
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  • #33
  • Dec 20, 2008 2:00pm Dec 20, 2008 2:00pm
The wick action on the 1H in the last 5 hours of trade is certainly something to watch. These tri tips or quad tips usually mean north travel, however, the sell off just before close tends to indicate that there may not be much depth to the support (and or just last minute profit-taking not wanting to stay in over the weekend). Thin trading next week. Some buying up of the AUD too before close, usually a sign that traders are taking cover for Euro shorts.

Asia and Europe sessions usually are bullish on the Euro, first cabs off the rank tomorrow, some north travel is possible but whether it will in fact translate that way and hold when the US session commences is another matter (imo).
  • #34
  • Edited 3:35pm Dec 20, 2008 3:24pm | Edited 3:35pm
btw, your uptrend line on the daily chart above is not in the correct position... if you draw it in along the actual line of support, this is what you get... and you can see it has already significantly breached the uptrend and is now heading south

(I've also adjusted the down trend line to pick up the edge of the 50 fib)

One may also wish to remember that Hanukkah starts Dec 21, meaning it is possible there will be some additional bouyancy for the US Dollar as optimism for improved fortunes in the new year rises (sans the 2008 Annus Horribilus).
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  • #35
  • Dec 20, 2008 7:27pm Dec 20, 2008 7:27pm
my god guys. ever asked yourself why you can't trade this "patterns" profitable in the long run ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #36
  • Dec 20, 2008 8:05pm Dec 20, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting mrgreen
Something I read, printed out and now display on my monitor:

If you are against flow and remain to be stubborn because of ego or any other reason, it will kill you. You have to "give" and yield to the flow and pulse of the markets. Let her teach you her rhythm; don't impose any of your thoughts on her. -FTI-
So... which was tougher to learn?
That {above} or How Much you Should bet on your next Trade?

Clue: RR is simple math once understood & is therefore a Science.

Speculating Market direction is an Art & therefore cannot be taught/learned at a desk.
It can Only be assimilated by experiencing it.
  • #37
  • Edited 8:51pm Dec 20, 2008 8:37pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting Jade Gate
The wick action on the 1H in the last 5 hours of trade is certainly something to watch. These tri tips or quad tips usually mean north travel, however, the sell off just before close tends to indicate that there may not be much depth to the support (and or just last minute profit-taking not wanting to stay in over the weekend). Thin trading next week. Some buying up of the AUD too before close, usually a sign that traders are taking cover for Euro shorts.

Asia and Europe sessions usually are bullish on the Euro, first cabs off the rank tomorrow,...
seriously how can u make a statement that usually Asian and Europe are bullish. Come on that is rubbish, they're normally like what they show u they are!

sorry to be harsh but these type of statements are just dangerous.

what i have learnt is calling markets in any direction is a suckers game best left to the news reporters. just like what happen last time. market was called down and up it went. so lets see the open on Monday then wait and see if it fills the gap if there is one. then we can see a direction ideas and plans can be made to trade of the direction.
  • #38
  • Dec 20, 2008 9:57pm Dec 20, 2008 9:57pm
Hi Apo, the Euro bullish inclinations in the Asia and Europe sessions are my observations of a consistency issue over a reasonable period of time, e.g. if I am looking to short the Euro, I wouldn't (necessarily) do it when Europe has just opened... I wait until the US session starts (or about an hour before, when the Euro bulls start to back off). It's an observation that has stood me in good stead for avoiding the natural contrarian risk factor in trade direction. If I am bullish Euro, I look to go long around 5am London time, 6am at the latest. It's a strategy that (to me at least) has a good evidence base and works very well (for me). Asia can be like watching paint dry some days, it moves slow and creeps (often in the direction it will go when Europe wakes). The overlap between US session close and Asia open is worth trading though because that also is a very liquid and active time of day.

Please feel free to check your charts over a lengthy period of time to make your own observations. It's one that stands me in good stead, but it's fine if you disagree and have some other approach.

I think that each trading zone tends to support it's own currency - that this is a just a natural outworking of the instrinsic bias we all carry. If your observations are otherwise, that is fine too. Always room for diverse views and opinions.
  • #39
  • Dec 20, 2008 10:19pm Dec 20, 2008 10:19pm
lets have a look at the current facts that the market has on show.

Daily chart.

we had a very fast and hard move down that broke the bull market. times started to change as seen on the pink support line. this started the formation of the pattern. ending diagonal.

once the price broke out of the ED this was the first main evidence of a trend trying to change. a hit on the overall down trend line. here came nailer. the price broke the main trend line. now why did it break with such force? well here's a tip the fed gave the euro every reason to rally and it did as you can see. it rallied to 61.8% of the entire move down in 1 WEEK!

so can a rally on this angle be sustained? obviously not as it sold off and came back to earth. price direction has now changed at that fib point so is this still a bear market? in fib terms yes. as you need to look at what made this rally a long move down in a carry trade pair with a massive statement by the fed to keep feeding the carry. if you saw such a cheap price for the euro would u buy it at that price? hence the impluse rally.

What now? we have a price finding resistence at a previous resistence point of a vertical impluse rally, we have a minor fiday session support off it's session low on the 38% fib point. can u get a answer out of that with out making a guess? seams like a real 50/50 to me.

lets move to the 4 hour chart.

looked at the weekend news nothing that could really move the euro or usd.

we look to the chart. fast trend line is broken in a fast move down to the 38.2 fib point. finding support on that fib point. this is a interesting situation. it's on a fib but also in a fast swing down. this is the first sign of buying the whole way down that has actually held green. so is this nothing more then a counter rally that will end up going to the next trend line at 1.36ish.

Here is my point

this is one of the best 50/50s i have seen and if anyone could tell me at this point there is a clear move I would be impressed.

I lean to counter rally to more selling but that my personal opinion.

Cheers
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  • #40
  • Dec 20, 2008 10:36pm Dec 20, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Hi Apo, the Euro bullish inclinations in the Asia and Europe sessions are my observations of a consistency issue over a reasonable period of time, e.g. if I am looking to short the Euro, I wouldn't (necessarily) do it when Europe has just opened... I wait until the US session starts (or about an hour before, when the Euro bulls start to back off). It's an observation that has stood me in good stead for avoiding the natural contrarian risk factor in trade direction. If I am bullish Euro, I look to go long around 5am London time, 6am at the latest....
sorry looked back over a few months and i did not see this. 50/50 at best what I saw was the sessions supported the trend ans changed due to certain happenings.

I don't agree with that post at all. If you see this and profit from it all good to you. I could pull out 100 times it rallied or fell on the open of any session.

I trade 15min charts. every day I watch each interbank from NZ to bed time on US. I only trade from 7am - 17pm UK time. I see trends change and start during this time but not like you claim. I have seen selling at the afternoon session of the us after a rally though Asia and euro but this is not near enough to actually trade of it.

again sorry but if markets were that easy I can assure you, that would be the easiest system out there and everyone would trade it. On top of that the funds and banks would all see it and sell out all the retail traders that tried to do it.

It's like the good old Christmas rally or on our little ASX the sell OCT and MAY and go away.

no agreement on that
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