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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #2,401
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:18am Nov 17, 2008 11:18am
Quoting BentRod
Gday Igrok.

Are you placing any significance in the current formation on AUDUSD Daily??
Looks bullish to me.
  • #2,402
  • Nov 17, 2008 1:09pm Nov 17, 2008 1:09pm
Hi, Mr. Igrok,

What outcome of this formation on EUR/USD would be more likely?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,403
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:19pm Nov 17, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Ulterior
Hi, Mr. Igrok,

What outcome of this formation on EUR/USD would be more likely?
Depends on the sequence. If the next move is down to make the third touch of that supportive trendline then the most probable outcome would be a downtrend continuation into 1.16 area and possibly all the way to my "must reach" target at .96. If soon it breaks the upper border which as we can see already has multiple touches, then a retracement back into 1.39-40 area becomes more probable. In any case, the longer-term outlook for the buck looks extremely bullish to me but there could be a sizeable retracement first.
  • #2,404
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:50pm Nov 17, 2008 3:50pm
Hi Igrok!

I read an article in Currency Trader Magazine (AUG 08) which explained that currencies do not trend as well over the long term as they used to. First, I would like to hear your definition of trend, since I have heard of so many including:

1) Strong Form (i.e. a directional move with few retracements)

2) Strong Direction (i.e. it takes a lot of reverse a trend once it is on course)

And I would also like to hear from you if you agree that fx trends less than it used to. Logically, a market whose liquidity has increased in the last 20 years should trend more, since it becomes harder for a single participant to reverse it (assuming that you accept the 2) definition).
  • #2,405
  • Nov 18, 2008 5:38pm Nov 18, 2008 5:38pm
Igrok,

Looking at USD chart, do u think there is a chance of double top if 30 Oct and 5 Nov low TL is taken out ?

Seeing a divergence too in daily.
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #2,406
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:23am Nov 19, 2008 6:23am
Quoting Igrok
Seems, the next setup worth consideration should be about shorting USD/CHF at around 1.2080 with tight stops to target 1.14 area.
Many thanks for bringing my attention to this level - 1.2080. It hit it to the pip and I was glad that I set a limit to close my small position that I had at 1.21 that I've been holding since September 2007 - lol! At least the interest I earned outweighed the small loss.

I am ashamed to say that I didn't reverse the position though. I'm giving USD/CHF a miss for now.

Keep up the fantastic calls - your thread is a real eye opener.

GL&GT
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,407
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:21am Nov 19, 2008 7:21am
<<Seems, the next setup worth consideration should be about shorting USD/CHF at around 1.2080 with tight stops to target 1.14 area.>>

Igrok,

Wonder how u come with 1.2080 projection (short) ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #2,408
  • Nov 20, 2008 4:35pm Nov 20, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting Igrok
I doubt very much. There is a good possibility that 200 might come before 80.
is your outlook still the same? if so, would you pls explain.

on weekly charts (for me) it seems possible to reach '80s in near term, although 4 hr and 1 day have "much higher" target values in the '88-85 area.

thks.
Once A Trader Always A Trader.
  • #2,409
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:28am Nov 21, 2008 10:28am
Quoting fxterrapin
Hi Igrok!

I read an article in Currency Trader Magazine (AUG 08) which explained that currencies do not trend as well over the long term as they used to. First, I would like to hear your definition of trend, since I have heard of so many including:

1) Strong Form (i.e. a directional move with few retracements)

2) Strong Direction (i.e. it takes a lot of reverse a trend once it is on course)

And I would also like to hear from you if you agree that fx trends less than it used to. Logically, a market whose liquidity has increased in the last...
I don't really think that I should get involved in some purely theoretical argument over a definition of something that I don't even find important for practical use. Especially when it becomes obvious at a single glance at the charts that the first assumption about "less trendy" currencies sounds like a not so smart and funny joke.
BTW, just an hour ago I accepted an offer from Currency Trader Magazine to write another article for them, which is likely to be published in the Jan issue. Most likely it will be about diamonds with some interesting pictures to illustrate the idea.
  • #2,410
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:29am Nov 21, 2008 10:29am
Quoting compro99
Igrok,

Looking at USD chart, do u think there is a chance of double top if 30 Oct and 5 Nov low TL is taken out ?

Seeing a divergence too in daily.
"Double top" formation cannot be predicted or somehow projected in advance and can be traded only on the break of the neckline. Therefore I never trade it cause the stops will be too far.
  • #2,411
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:31am Nov 21, 2008 10:31am
Quoting compro99
<<Seems, the next setup worth consideration should be about shorting USD/CHF at around 1.2080 with tight stops to target 1.14 area.>>

Igrok,

Wonder how u come with 1.2080 projection (short) ?
That was the upper border level of a bullish channel on monthly.
  • #2,412
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:35am Nov 21, 2008 10:35am
Quoting Liviu
is your outlook still the same? if so, would you pls explain.

on weekly charts (for me) it seems possible to reach '80s in near term, although 4 hr and 1 day have "much higher" target values in the '88-85 area.

thks.

There is nothing to explain at the moment. I just think that it looks quite likely that the bottom for the current USD/JPY trend to be located somewhere at .8650-.8700 zone.
  • #2,413
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:37am Nov 21, 2008 10:37am
Quoting Patience
Many thanks for bringing my attention to this level - 1.2080. It hit it to the pip and I was glad that I set a limit to close my small position that I had at 1.21 that I've been holding since September 2007 - lol! At least the interest I earned outweighed the small loss.

I am ashamed to say that I didn't reverse the position though. I'm giving USD/CHF a miss for now.

Keep up the fantastic calls - your thread is a real eye opener.

GL&GT
Welcome. Didn't work out well though. I didn't take about 140 pips of floating profit and that particular trade ended up at the break even point eventually.
  • #2,414
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:48am Nov 21, 2008 10:48am
Quoting Igrok
I don't really think that I should get involved in some purely theoretical argument over a definition of something that I don't even find important for practical use. Especially when it becomes obvious at a single glance at the charts that the first assumption about "less trendy" currencies sounds like a not so smart and funny joke.
BTW, just an hour ago I accepted an offer from Currency Trader Magazine to write another article for them, which is likely to be published in the Jan issue. Most likely it will be about diamonds with some interesting...

Perhaps I should I have explained better. The argument in that issue was that currencies retrace more of their trend than their used to. Frankly I don't see why this makes them less trendy at all. It may not be of importance to you, but it certainly is to anyone applying a long term, trend following strategy. I already read your last article in that magazine and will be sure to check out your next one. Most of the articles in their are plain junk, of course, trying to just sell you something.
  • #2,415
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:59am Nov 21, 2008 10:59am
Quoting Igrok
Welcome. Didn't work out well though. I didn't take about 140 pips of floating profit and that particular trade ended up at the break even point eventually.
... so you are mortal too !

Hi Igrok, just joking due to being too bored.
Nasty two days with these broadening formations on eur and gbp.

Mr I, if i can ask.... what is the logic behind a braodening formation?
I understand when there is a trend in act we have HH, HL, or viceversa, but having a HH and then a LL, what does it mean? Pure specutlation? Market just going without a compass?

As always, thanks.
  • #2,416
  • Nov 21, 2008 11:15am Nov 21, 2008 11:15am
Quoting fxterrapin
Perhaps I should I have explained better. The argument in that issue was that currencies retrace more of their trend than their used to. Frankly I don't see why this makes them less trendy at all. It may not be of importance to you, but it certainly is to anyone applying a long term, trend following strategy. I already read your last article in that magazine and will be sure to check out your next one. Most of the articles in their are plain junk, of course, trying to just sell you something.
The market changes its behavior from time to time. It's normal. The most likely reason for that is to teach those thinking they have already caught God by the beard a lesson.
  • #2,417
  • Nov 21, 2008 11:24am Nov 21, 2008 11:24am
Quoting giusepp8
... so you are mortal too !

1. Hi Igrok, just joking due to being too bored.
Nasty two days with these broadening formations on eur and gbp.

2. Mr I, if i can ask.... what is the logic behind a braodening formation?
I understand when there is a trend in act we have HH, HL, or viceversa, but having a HH and then a LL, what does it mean? Pure specutlation? Market just going without a compass?

As always, thanks.
1. Long time ago one Chinese emperor had issued a law prohibiting people from dying. He violated his own decree just three years later. I'm not going to repeat his mistake.

2. The logic behind any particular market development is the same as the logic behind the laws of physics. This is the way the nature works.
  • #2,418
  • Nov 22, 2008 4:54am Nov 22, 2008 4:54am
Greetings Mr. Toshchakov. Its been some time i posted here so heres my question on the GBP/JPY, though i know you stoped trading this pair, but id like to post what i see. Looking at the dayly i see a possible bullish divergence on the MACD targeting 157.516 or 165.049? Though we still need to break the upper descending TL. Do you have a somewhat similar view on this pair? Thank you for your time.

Cheers
  • #2,419
  • Edited 2:38pm Nov 22, 2008 1:58pm | Edited 2:38pm
Also looking at the possible huge bullish divergence breaking thru descending trendline on the cable targeting 1.6671 - the yellow horizontal line. Mr Igrok do you think the divergence is significant for the above target to be quite reallistic in the near-term? Posting a clean chart and hope you take a look at it.

Thanks.

Enjoy your weekend. Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,420
  • Nov 23, 2008 8:50am Nov 23, 2008 8:50am
Looks like a legit one, also given the oversold conditions on GBP it might make some correction rather sooner than later. However, I'm quite sure that we haven't seen the bottom on it yet.
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