Admit it - your profits are based on luck
- #383
- Sep 29, 2008 7:51pm Sep 29, 2008 7:51pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
I would like to suggest that you stay out of retirerment. It's nice to read the comments of someone who is clearly sane. (Even if i don't agree with them entirely)
Did't Hanover try to retire once aswell? I guess this place is like Royston Vasey; You'll never leave!
I would like to suggest that tDion go in and out of retirement on the basis of pure chance and random coincidence. Isn't that where the 'clearly sane' are anyway?
The bumblebee flies up.
The bumblebee flies down.
Where he's going?
He must be headed out of town.
He didn't say it could be quantified. He said it was demonstrable.
Besides, are all things that can't be quantified necessarily non-existent? Do emotions exist? Does beauty exist? Do ideas exist? Of course they do. The mere fact they are intangible doesn't automatically render them non-existent.
luck and chance are what people use to explain events that they either do not understand or do not have enough data to make an informed conlcusion.
emotions are quantifiable (not mathematically of course) in how they are expressed - there is a difference between anger and apathy for example
beauty is quantifiable to the individual because he can use the language of color, texture, sound, size, proportion, etc to describe the beauty that he sees
ideas are quantifiable because we have language, words and vocabulary
probability is quatifiable because we have math
luck and chance are the 'miracles' of those who do not notice that all things that happen are preceded by a cause. If price goes that way and I entered the other way then it is because the majority knew something that I did not know or pay attention to.
these are just my random thots
.
- #388
- Sep 29, 2008 10:51pm Sep 29, 2008 10:51pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Know that you don't know. | 2,943 Posts
luck and chance are what people use to explain events that they either do not understand or do not have enough data to make an informed conlcusion.
Therefore luck and chance don't exist?! Codswallop. I understand the toss of a coin. I have enough data to draw an informed conclusion, i.e. the coin will land heads or it will land tails. I'm even aware the probability of it landing on one side versus the other are very close to 50/50. But despite all that, it's impossible for me to determine with 100% certainty on which side the coin will land. Whatever you want to call it, fate, luck, faeries, Black Swan, the phenomenon is observable, demonstrable and definitely exists.
emotions are quantifiable (not mathematically of course) in how they are expressed - there is a difference between anger and apathy for example
beauty is quantifiable to the individual because he can use the language of color, texture, sound, size, proportion, etc to describe the beauty that he sees
ideas are quantifiable because we have language, words and vocabulary
How else can something be quantified if not with math?? In the examples above you're confusing quantitative with qualitative. Irrespective of that, a thing isn't nonexistent just because it can't be measured, counted or calculated.
probability is quatifiable because we have math
luck and chance are the 'miracles' of those who do not notice that all things that happen are preceded by a cause. If price goes that way and I entered the other way then it is because the majority knew something that I did not know or pay attention to.
these are just my random thots
Just a few random thots of my own.
- #391
- Sep 29, 2008 11:09pm Sep 29, 2008 11:09pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Don't do more, do less better! | 259 Posts
'Luck' is an intangible but powerful and mystical force which is sometimes responsible for our failures, and for the successes of our peers, it exonerates us from blame or responsibility.....how convenient! I wonder how many legal defences were won on the 'luck' argument when their client was caught red-handed.
In forex I guess it makes a change from blaming the marketmakers, they will be relieved
In forex I guess it makes a change from blaming the marketmakers, they will be relieved
- #392
- Sep 29, 2008 11:12pm Sep 29, 2008 11:12pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
Are you saying that it is possible to analyse something with 100% accuracy? That no outside events can trump your analysis and overturn what you expect?
In forex, I think that the players and information are so far removed from our grasp, that our vision is murky at best. Not to mention, we are looking for changes at the subpenny level (unless you are a swing trader.) And did I mention that forex is probably the most efficient market in the world? Or that the variety of players that move these markets are carrying out unique agendas, and that we don't know who is doing what when (all we see is the end result.)
Sorry lostinspace, I am being the pointy haired one now....
In forex, I think that the players and information are so far removed from our grasp, that our vision is murky at best. Not to mention, we are looking for changes at the subpenny level (unless you are a swing trader.) And did I mention that forex is probably the most efficient market in the world? Or that the variety of players that move these markets are carrying out unique agendas, and that we don't know who is doing what when (all we see is the end result.)
Sorry lostinspace, I am being the pointy haired one now....
....or mitigate the effects of our poor analysis would probably be more accurate!
- #393
- Sep 29, 2008 11:16pm Sep 29, 2008 11:16pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Know that you don't know. | 2,943 Posts
For cryin' out loud. lost, are you claiming randomness and chance don't exist? No hocus-pocus. Nothing mystical or weird or other-worldly. Shit just happens. It always has, and until we become omniscient/omnipotent, it always will. We are in a daily struggle to keep the effects of chaos under control. Sometimes we win because of our hard work, skill, and experience. Sometimes we lose despite our hard work, skill, and experience.
Hey, it's never the marketmaker's fault is it?
Hey, it's never the marketmaker's fault is it?
- #394
- Sep 29, 2008 11:20pm Sep 29, 2008 11:20pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Know that you don't know. | 2,943 Posts
- #395
- Sep 29, 2008 11:40pm Sep 29, 2008 11:40pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Don't do more, do less better! | 259 Posts
Are you saying that it is possible to analyse something with 100% accuracy? That no outside events can trump your analysis and overturn what you expect?
In forex, I think that the players and information are so far removed from our grasp, that our vision is murky at best. Not to mention, we are looking for changes at the subpenny level (unless you are a swing trader.) And did I mention that forex is probably the most efficient market in the world? Or that the variety of players that move these markets are carrying out unique agendas, and that we don't know who is doing what when (all we see is the end result.)
Sorry lostinspace, I am being the pointy haired one now....
Yes it's possible to analyse something with 100% accuracy, it doesn't happen to me that often as I'm not that great a trader, I usually have to 'trade' my way into and out of a trade but it does happen. If outside events trump my analysis and overturn what I expected then my analysis was wrong, simple as that. There are times however when even though my analysis was 100% accurate some totally unexpected event took the market by surprise (ie geopolitical or economic), there's nothing anyone can do when that happens apart from manage risk, and managing risk is just about the only thing a trader is totally in control of.
You're right, we can't possibly know every trader's agenda and our vision may well be murky, but even with those disadvantages it's still possible to turn a profit consistently, ask any consistently profitable trader
- #397
- Sep 29, 2008 11:49pm Sep 29, 2008 11:49pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Don't do more, do less better! | 259 Posts
For cryin' out loud. lost, are you claiming randomness and chance don't exist? No hocus-pocus. Nothing mystical or weird or other-worldly. Shit just happens.
(It's more often the trader who's to blame not the marketmaker, but I agree MM's aren't snow white
)
- #398
- Sep 29, 2008 11:53pm Sep 29, 2008 11:53pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
Well, some people will call randomness and chance luck.... apparently others won't
I'm a bit curious to how you do your analysis. Is it based on fundamentals, technical analysis, or both? (let's not rule out astrology)
I'm a bit curious to how you do your analysis. Is it based on fundamentals, technical analysis, or both? (let's not rule out astrology
)
- #399
- Sep 30, 2008 12:24am Sep 30, 2008 12:24am
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Don't do more, do less better! | 259 Posts
I'm a bit curious to how you do your analysis. Is it based on fundamentals, technical analysis, or both? (let's not rule out astrology
Some fundamentals are no-brainers like the bailout plan, I had a short Gbp/Usd on Sunday afternoon before the open (thanks for weekend trading Oanda!), I posted the trade blotter on another forum, +380 pips when I closed on Monday morning. There are plenty of opportunities like that which come along, for example the .50 BP Fed cut when .75 was priced in (or was it .25 and .50, can't remember now), no-brainers in my opinion. I'm not an economist so it's only the really obvious ones I go for.
I mainly trade technicals though, they seem to work ok as long as you understand their limitation and don't consider them the holy grail.
Well, some people will call randomness and chance luck.... apparently others won't
I'm a bit curious to how you do your analysis. Is it based on fundamentals, technical analysis, or both? (let's not rule out astrology
I thought you said you were leaving? Like a dog returning to its own vomit.
And please don't send me any more cursing PM's