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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,181
  • Sep 28, 2008 12:35am Sep 28, 2008 12:35am
Quoting mr.krai
hijackxx,Nigel .thank you very much again
No problem. Have a good weekend. =)
  • #17,182
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:54am Sep 28, 2008 1:54am
Discretionnary trader are like artist they have something that others don't have. They have those intution and they act on it like Phillip Nel does... he can feel the market imo. So we need to recognize when the market is telling us something. It's been ranging for 3 days now so we should have not trade but things are gonna change. How can we become artist and feel those change and only take high probability trades... I don't know how but I'm looking at you guys makes me beleive that it can be done and I think that's why this thread as become so popular artist has always been fascinating because of their ability to do fascinating thing that other can't do and becoming one of them require a lot of talent and dedication. Congratulation to all of those who succed in this system . IMO Phillip Nel is THE best Forex trader ever!!! Thank you Phillip for sharring your vision because it has been an inspiration for me... when I first came in the world of forex I started to learn your method but I've never been profitable with it but hte quality of all of your document was so powerful and appropriate that it showed me how to become a trader and be profitable. Wath you teach is more than just a 4hour MACD strategy ...I sincerly want to thank you for what you've done.
  • #17,183
  • Sep 28, 2008 2:59am Sep 28, 2008 2:59am
Quoting Bridge
Discretionnary trader are like artist they have something that others don't have. They have those intution and they act on it like Phillip Nel does... he can feel the market imo. So we need to recognize when the market is telling us something. It's been ranging for 3 days now so we should have not trade but things are gonna change. How can we become artist and feel those change and only take high probability trades... I don't know how but I'm looking at you guys makes me beleive that it can be done and I think that's why this thread as become so popular artist has always been fascinating because of their ability to do fascinating thing that other can't do and becoming one of them require a lot of talent and dedication. Congratulation to all of those who succed in this system . IMO Phillip Nel is THE best Forex trader ever!!! Thank you Phillip for sharring your vision because it has been an inspiration for me... when I first came in the world of forex I started to learn your method but I've never been profitable with it but hte quality of all of your document was so powerful and appropriate that it showed me how to become a trader and be profitable. Wath you teach is more than just a 4hour MACD strategy ...I sincerly want to thank you for what you've done.
I concur that. I can almost felt that trading is in Phillip Nel's blood and teaching is his passion.

Otherwise, why would someone so successful with trading would want to spare his precious time teaching others?

  • #17,184
  • Sep 28, 2008 4:42am Sep 28, 2008 4:42am
Quoting Nigel
Otherwise, why would someone so successful with trading would want to spare his precious time teaching others?

agree,
  • #17,185
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:06pm Sep 28, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting Bridge
Discretionnary trader are like artist they have something that others don't have. They have those intution and they act on it like Phillip Nel does... he can feel the market imo. So we need to recognize when the market is telling us something. It's been ranging for 3 days now so we should have not trade but things are gonna change. How can we become artist and feel those change and only take high probability trades... I don't know how but I'm looking at you guys makes me beleive that it can be done and I think that's why this thread as become so popular artist has always been fascinating because of their ability to do fascinating thing that other can't do and becoming one of them require a lot of talent and dedication. Congratulation to all of those who succed in this system . IMO Phillip Nel is THE best Forex trader ever!!! Thank you Phillip for sharring your vision because it has been an inspiration for me... when I first came in the world of forex I started to learn your method but I've never been profitable with it but hte quality of all of your document was so powerful and appropriate that it showed me how to become a trader and be profitable. Wath you teach is more than just a 4hour MACD strategy ...I sincerly want to thank you for what you've done.

That is what I was hoping people will discover. It is not so much the 4Hour system but the overall rhythm,heartbeat and pulse of the market that must be learned. Their is a constant up and down movement and sometimes like now a squashed in market waiting for a breakout. I call this Tsunami time.(Very dangerous to trade during a preparation for a breakout.) I will be waiting for one of the 2 scenarios to play out. It could also break to the bottom and then the 89sma will play a roll. I will be very carefull to go short after the breakout unless it clears the 89sma.
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  • #17,186
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:19pm Sep 28, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting niceyem
for those of us that live in nigeria G.M.T +1.00)West Central Africa,pls convert your time 9.00am, 1:00pm and 5:00PM EST under DST to my own time G.M.T +1.00 West Central Africa.thanks do much.

My current time is 22:18 so you can work out your time.
  • #17,187
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:41pm Sep 28, 2008 1:41pm
Hey Phillip,

Looks like the markets have gone into a holding pattern waiting for the US bailout decision. Congress to vote on the package tomorrow. Will you be sitting on the sidelines or still looking for opportunities given this scenario?
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,188
  • Sep 28, 2008 1:54pm Sep 28, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting edeyj999
Hey Phillip,

Looks like the markets have gone into a holding pattern waiting for the US bailout decision. Congress to vote on the package tomorrow. Will you be sitting on the sidelines or still looking for opportunities given this scenario?
Looks like waiting is the answer. I wont get involve unless the candle pattern confirms the scenario as well. If it breaks to the south I will wait for a entry confirmation at the 89sma. We might see some fast moves depending on the news. I will also get involve with a shortterm strategy if the speed is to quick for the 4Hour.
  • #17,189
  • Sep 28, 2008 3:47pm Sep 28, 2008 3:47pm
I agree, sitting on my hands for now. It might take a few days for price action to find its way....patience.

Just got back from fishing the flats and I'm pretty beat. I'll update the website tomorrow....
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  • #17,190
  • Sep 28, 2008 7:59pm Sep 28, 2008 7:59pm
Phill, how have you choosen the MA's that you use on your charts?..what those particular numbers? thanks
  • #17,191
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:13am Sep 29, 2008 1:13am
Quoting niceyem
for those of us that live in nigeria G.M.T +1.00)West Central Africa,pls convert your time 9.00am, 1:00pm and 5:00PM EST under DST to my own time G.M.T +1.00 West Central Africa.thanks do much.
can you please reframe your question for better understanding? or are your asking how to change the time at FF to your local time? if thats the question, click on the time, off DST, change the next one to GMT+1 making sure that the last country is paris, then save it. i hope this helps.
  • #17,192
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:45am Sep 29, 2008 1:45am
Go and read the posts, start at the beginning! All the details are in the posts here, Phil gives us his time voluntarily, if he answered everyone's questions that he had already covered in the posts many times previously then he would have no time to analyse the market for us and no-one would make any progress. Sorry to be a bit preachy but to cover basic questions like this that are covered in detail elsewhere is not a fair use of Phil's time. Once you spend some time reading the posts you will realise how much time Phil has already put so much time into this and you will see what I'm saying about respecting that, once you've read the posts then I'm guessing Phil would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have then.

Go back to the very first post in this topic and you will see a guide to all the key posts or check out Palmer's site where he has also collected this info.
Summary:
8 ema
21 ema
89 sma
200 sma
365 sma

I hope this helps
  • #17,193
  • Sep 29, 2008 5:44am Sep 29, 2008 5:44am
E/U has gone through the 200 and down to the last fib retrace of the previous move up (also the 89).

It could come back and test the 200 which will probably be about where the 21 will be and also will be the first fib retrace of the move down. Seems like lots of reason for resistance and if thats not enough then we can add the fact that all off those will be sitting on the psych level of 4500.

But anyway Im getting ahead of myself first it needs to retrace the move down. On my 4H the rounded bottom looks to be slowly forming and the previous candle was a spinner.
  • #17,194
  • Sep 29, 2008 5:50am Sep 29, 2008 5:50am
Quoting brettboz
E/U has gone through the 200 and down to the last fib retrace of the previous move up (also the 89).

It could come back and test the 200 which will probably be about where the 21 will be and also will be the first fib retrace of the move down. Seems like lots of reason for resistance and if thats not enough then we can add the fact that all off those will be sitting on the psych level of 4500.

But anyway Im getting ahead of myself first it needs to retrace the move down. On my 4H the rounded bottom looks to be slowly forming and the previous candle was a spinner.
Hey brett: I'm waiting it out also. The 8/21 have to catch up with the 89 alignment for the rhythm to be there. Lot's of ifs ands or buts trades right now and I'd rather wait for 'when'....
  • #17,195
  • Sep 29, 2008 6:47am Sep 29, 2008 6:47am
Quoting Palmer
Hey brett: I'm waiting it out also. The 8/21 have to catch up with the 89 alignment for the rhythm to be there. Lot's of ifs ands or buts trades right now and I'd rather wait for 'when'....
Yep Im with you there. The round bottom looks like it might form but if it did it would be outside my trading hours and I don't like running trades through the Asian sessions. Besides the risk is too great especially on a CT trade (if you can call it that...).

I prefer some consolidation back to the 21 for a re-test and possible break of 89.
  • #17,196
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:11am Sep 29, 2008 7:11am
Hey Palmer/Brettboz - your analysis looks good to me. However, I'm standing aside until the result of the vote in the US happens (anyone know what time that would be?). I think if you would normally avoid trading during important economic news then today's vote is one to let happen from the sidelines.
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,197
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:30am Sep 29, 2008 7:30am
The direction of the trend is still uncertain. I'll watch how it goes. I'm anticipating an up trend thou.
  • #17,198
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:34am Sep 29, 2008 8:34am
Quoting edeyj999
Hey Palmer/Brettboz - your analysis looks good to me. However, I'm standing aside until the result of the vote in the US happens (anyone know what time that would be?). I think if you would normally avoid trading during important economic news then today's vote is one to let happen from the sidelines.
Not sure but nigel just hit the nail on the head about waiting for direction. The daily EU looks like it want to continue down but the 8/21 look mixed right now.
  • #17,199
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:37am Sep 29, 2008 8:37am
I was expecting an upmove more than a downmove. Just emphasize the fact that the market must tell you which way to trade. Currently I will wait for the rhythm to show itself. Moving averages getting together.
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  • #17,200
  • Edited 10:30am Sep 29, 2008 9:19am | Edited 10:30am
This is a high risk trade taken on 4H and 1H rhythm.

My 4th trade for the month. The price has moved to below the 89sma on the 4H and then retraced to it and started moving down again. The 1H confirm as well the retsest of the 89sma on the 4H and then the move away. I have split my stoploss in a 50 and 30 on 2 positions. I will close one position after 25pips gain and then set the remainder on a -25pips to go breakeven if I am taken out.

Edit 1
Time will also play a roll in my decision as to this trade. If it does not move within a certain period of time I will consider closing the deal or at least half the position or evn both.

Edit 2
I am a bit worried as it was suppose to have moved at least 25 allready with that type of pullback. I will know the next 10 to 15 minutes.

Edit
Due to the lack of speed I have closed 50% for +20 and set remainder at -20 for a BE trade should the stoploss trigger.

Edit
Remainder was taken out at -20 for a total trade on Breakeven.

I was'nt happy with the movement after the setup candle( the move away from the 89sma) was formed. Price was moving nowhere. Normally price moves quite quick after a pullback setup like that. Therfore my decision and I got out at Breakeven.
As far as I am concern it was worth it because the possibilty were there for a further down move. If I wasnt in it and it moved I would have been cross with myself.
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