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- #34,682
- Sep 27, 2008 2:47am Sep 27, 2008 2:47am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Still testing and trading | 1,454 Posts
Major ?
I would rather say minor, only correction move after this bullflag will be broken.
Higher the better for bears.Major lower target hasnt been hit yet ~1.27.
Also there is a chance to see 1.05 in 2-3 years. Yearly candle is bearish so far.
If this candle will close below 14953 at the end of the year we have got a change of long term trend.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Maarten
Major ?
I would rather say minor, only correction move after this bullflag will be broken.
Higher the better for bears.Major lower target hasnt been hit yet ~1.27.
Also there is a chance to see 1.05 in 2-3 years. Yearly candle is bearish so far.
If this candle will close below 14953 at the end of the year we have got a change of long term trend.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Agree 100%. More like sub-parity...
I have the agree that technical the euro seems a bit weak. But the long term trends only have to do with the economic and political stability of a country. What would give the dollar so much strength the next years? As I see it, there is no reason for the US dollar to strengthen. America's empire is coming down every single day. America's is now the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. Every 15 months the debt increases with one trillion dollars! I would not want to own a currency like that. Who would?
Maarten
A currency is not a stock. It simply does not work that way. Debt of a company is not comparable to the debt of a nation. We have to look at the global economy as a whole. During contractionary periods, lower interest rates are in demand (Bernake knows this). Also, interest rate differentials (or perceived differentials) play a large role, as traders weigh holding a certain position in a currency vs. gaining interest in the currency. In many ways, the fx is the international version of the bond market:
Value of the underlying issue vs. interest gained by holding the issue (and for how long).
If forex were as simply as you described, we'd all be driving around in Ferraries.
- #34,686
- Sep 27, 2008 3:09am Sep 27, 2008 3:09am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
I have the agree that technical the euro seems a bit weak. But the long term trends only have to do with the economic and political stability of a country. What would give the dollar so much strength the next years? As I see it, there is no reason for the US dollar to strengthen. America's empire is coming down every single day. America's is now the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. Every 15 months the debt increases with one trillion dollars! I would not want to own a currency like that. Who would?
Maarten
but the eurozone is entering to recession state and soon the euro will flood the market. Also in next year we could see european banks bankruptcy (for instance UBS could be first.).
Same thing like in US today would happen in Europe soon.
And euros will be cost equal dollahz or even less as "scexglobal" said.
Just a speculation not reco in any means
Yes, I would. Especially when 20+ years of credit expansion are coming to an end.
A currency is not a stock. It simply does not work that way. Debt of a company is not comparable to the debt of a nation. We have to look at the global economy as a whole. During contractionary periods, lower interest rates are in demand (Bernake knows this). Also, interest rate differentials (or perceived differentials) play a large role, as traders weigh holding a certain position in a currency vs. gaining interest in the currency. In many ways, the fx is the international version of the bond market:
Value of the underlying issue vs. interest gained by holding the issue (and for how long).
If forex were as simply as you described, we'd all be driving around in Ferraries.
Yes i agree that dollah is quite cheap now
Also in next year we could see european banks bankruptcy (for instance UBS could be first.).
Same thing like in US today would happen in Europe soon.
And euros will be cost equal dollahz or even less as "scexglobal" said.
Just a speculation not reco in any means
Second: We have a shift in power in the world. Asia is coming up rappidly ofcourse in the lead China. China is probably going to be the next great superpower, so it would make much more sense for central banks all around the world to buy a currency that is going to increase in value. And by the way, the chinese economy is a lot stronger then the american or european economy's. They have 1.3 billion people who all want to life the live we do. And the good news: they are working very hard for it. They save enormous amounts of money. Now thats real capitalism. Without capital no capitalism. And that's the problem in the US and Europe, people don't save anymore, they spend. Without capital there is not really capitalism.
Sorry folks but I have heard to much talking about some sort of new dollar bull market or a commodity bear market for years now (mostly on CNBC). And every time they say that, the bull market takes off again. Weird world huh?
Thank guys for the great discussion.
Maarten
My point: America is overextend geopolitical, economicly and militarily. That always marks the end of a superpower all troughout history. And what happends is that in the end the currency gets destroyed and another nation steps up as a new superpower. It always has and it always will. It's just the way the world works.
- #34,688
- Sep 27, 2008 4:05am Sep 27, 2008 4:05am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
On the path to Enrichment.
- #34,689
- Sep 27, 2008 4:19am Sep 27, 2008 4:19am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Still testing and trading | 1,454 Posts
- #34,690
- Sep 27, 2008 8:51am Sep 27, 2008 8:51am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
Guys thank you for your comment. I really appreciate it. But..... I am still not convinced about the dollar strengthing in the long term. First: this election, now whoever is going to be president doesn't really care because there is not going be much change in foreign policy. They probably both stay in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with a bit of luck they invade Iran. So that puts presure on the dollar.
Second: We have a shift in power in the world. Asia is coming up rappidly ofcourse in the lead China. China is probably going to be the next great superpower, so it would make much more sense for central banks all around the world to buy a currency that is going to increase in value. And by the way, the chinese economy is a lot stronger then the american or european economy's. They have 1.3 billion people who all want to life the live we do. And the good news: they are working very hard for it. They save enormous amounts of money. Now thats real capitalism. Without capital no capitalism. And that's the problem in the US and Europe, people don't save anymore, they spend. Without capital there is not really capitalism.
Sorry folks but I have heard to much talking about some sort of new dollar bull market or a commodity bear market for years now (mostly on CNBC). And every time they say that, the bull market takes off again. Weird world huh?
Thank guys for the great discussion.
Maarten
My point: America is overextend geopolitical, economicly and militarily. That always marks the end of a superpower all troughout history. And what happends is that in the end the currency gets destroyed and another nation steps up as a new superpower. It always has and it always will. It's just the way the world works.
- #34,692
- Sep 27, 2008 9:02am Sep 27, 2008 9:02am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
Downfall of great nations are usually not forecasted. They happen when no one is looking. Also predictions of who will be the next superpower are usually wrong too.
China has a whole sh*tload of problems to work out before they are considered "great". Like how about having a safe food supply. But even more importantly having more freedom than at present.
Soon USA will catch up China with the freedom race.
Downfall of great nations are usually not forecasted.
They happen when no one is looking.
Also predictions of who will be the next superpower are usually wrong too.
We both know that that is not true
China has a whole sh*tload of problems to work out before they are considered "great". Like how about having a safe food supply.
Safe food supply? They have 1.3 billion people. Don't forget that the government is still communist, they really don't care about some people with bad food.
Before America became a superpower they had a sh*tload of problems too. But did that stop the succes story? No ofcourse not. There is time needed to grow out of all these problems.
But even more importantly having more freedom than at present.
Well, doing business in China is great (for foreigners). Almost no regulations. There was a study lately that America is more socialist then China.
American freedom (personal and economical) has been on the slippery slope for years. While freedom in China is accelerating with 100 miles an hour.
(Don't get me wrong. I love America, and I visit the states as much as I can. But we have to face facts
)
- #34,694
- Sep 27, 2008 11:08am Sep 27, 2008 11:08am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #34,696
- Sep 27, 2008 11:24am Sep 27, 2008 11:24am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #34,697
- Sep 27, 2008 11:27am Sep 27, 2008 11:27am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Sharpen the Scalper Razor | 4,704 Posts
- #34,698
- Sep 27, 2008 11:57am Sep 27, 2008 11:57am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #34,699
- Sep 27, 2008 12:33pm Sep 27, 2008 12:33pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Sharpen the Scalper Razor | 4,704 Posts
