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Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #201
  • Sep 16, 2008 12:54am Sep 16, 2008 12:54am
what do we got on gbpcad? any expectations or analysis available?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #202
  • Sep 16, 2008 1:04am Sep 16, 2008 1:04am
Breaking News !

Interbank borrowing in London has stopped. There is '0' liquidity, even after Fed's 70 Billion $ injection. (and LIBOR is around 10%, 5 times the Fed funds rate, at 2%)

CNBCe


The market is pushing Fed for a rate cut; there is a real shrinkage in financial markets.
  • #203
  • Sep 16, 2008 1:09am Sep 16, 2008 1:09am
Quoting Obaidah
what do we got on gbpcad? any expectations or analysis available?

I believe that 1.8975-1.90 should act as a support line; it's sentiment is bullish, and should become strong bullish above 1.9260s. Holding longs so far
  • #204
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:04am Sep 16, 2008 5:04am
How about GBP/USD now?
  • #205
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:41am Sep 16, 2008 5:41am
Quoting trader8686
How about GBP/USD now?

Majors before FED decision

Most majors against the USD are in a similar situation now, trading between the highs and lows of yesterday's trading range. EUR, GBP hold their weak bullish sentiment before today's afternoon announcement. Breaking above Asian highs will see majors move a lot higher during the next few sessions and days.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...eencapture.jpg
  • #206
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:49am Sep 16, 2008 10:49am
i heard people say that if feds cut rates then stocks will move higher and take the yen crosses with them, but why's that? i mean how stocks effect the yen?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #207
  • Sep 17, 2008 9:05am Sep 17, 2008 9:05am
2nd wave is in full force | The steps of a financial melt down

As I have been reading/searching/reacting, with couple of friends of mine since last year, the status of financial entities are in pretty bad shape.

It looks like that the 2nd wave is gaining force and speed.


Today, Gold has jumped $60 in less than 3 hours; 1st time since 1980.

Dollar, stocks, financial entities are getting themselves in bad, bad and really bad situation every single day...

3rd wave will be the blow out. Enjoy the last days of the "artificial wealth"

Moving above $850 and $900, Gold will go above the all time highs of $1030 by next year
  • #208
  • Sep 17, 2008 9:11am Sep 17, 2008 9:11am
Quoting Obaidah
i heard people say that if feds cut rates then stocks will move higher and take the yen crosses with them, but why's that? i mean how stocks effect the yen?
The catch regarding the JPY is that, during calm eras, when people like risk, and its relatively less costly to take a risk, JPY tends to lose value, because its interest rate is very low, and it makes to borrow JPY and risk that money.

However, during high risk periods, this cycle reverses. Hence, when Fed decreases the interest rate, it encourages risk taking, making dollar loans low; hence, the Dow goes higher, the same cycle kicks in as JPY faces sell off (borrow JPY, change it to say dollars, then invest in Dow)

Thats the cycle; as basic as it sounds, it could ruin (as it did and still doing) some "intelligent" investors.
  • #209
  • Sep 17, 2008 10:38am Sep 17, 2008 10:38am
Uncertainty spreads around the globe

Only $3 to go to halt Gold trading, after $75 gain today, taking Gold price to $855.

If you recall, after the crisis in 1970s, COMEX established a rule that the maximum price movements in Gold market could be +/- 10% from the open price; which brings it to $858 today.
  • #210
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:55am Sep 17, 2008 11:55am
Quoting preneur
I believe we are in a period of establishing a top in USD index; hence a bottom in most majors, including EUR and GBP. If there indeed is a bottom during next days/weeks, expect all-time highs to be exceeded.

Its kinda early to say that, but thats i think what will happen
The top in USD is about to be confirmed; Treasury has doomed the USD; if EUR/USD moves above the 1.52 again, it will exceed the all time highs of 1.61 by next year
  • #211
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:03pm Sep 17, 2008 2:03pm
Macro look:

Let's recall September 6:

Quoting preneur
As I stated couple of times, 10600 will be tested and most likely broken. What's important for DOW is to hold onto 10K level; which below that is an ugly scene.

I believe, if the current FED action and intervention policy continues, DOW will even see sub 9000 sevels in 1-3 years, possibly 8000-8500 before finding a bottom. Thats another %20 from now! On top of that, these actions will be killer for the USD.
So, DOW is at 10600 as of today's close. Will it be broken, YES! And, again and again, if 10K doesn't hold, there is an ugly scene behind it.

Wait for it, its coming...
  • #212
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:11pm Sep 17, 2008 2:11pm
Fed to cut interest rates by min 25 basis points

The 2y treasury note yield continued to deteriorate today, moving to sub 1.75%. Fed didn't give in to market calls yesterday, however, will drop FFR by min 25 basis points next meeting, or even by holding an unscheduled early meeting, if the markets continue to deteriorate fast.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/ffr.jpg
  • #213
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:42pm Sep 17, 2008 2:42pm
Risk & Uncertainty is increasing

The uncertainty and fear in the markets have reached levels seen August '07 and March '08, right before the melt down started and Bear Stearns went bankrupt, respectively.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/TED_spread.jpg
  • #214
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:46pm Sep 17, 2008 2:46pm
Run on brokers? Run on commercial banks upcoming?

And a last note for today; it seems that the fear is spreading to investors top down from investment banks.

I'll report a recent email I received from one of my brokers:

Dear Valued GFT Customer,
As I’m sure you are well aware, the last several months and especially the last several days have been filled with news of many troubled financial services companies. I want to take this opportunity to assure you that GFT is financially stable and capitalized well beyond our requirements. In addition, our new highly competitive tight spreads continue to be among the most aggressive in the industry as our liquidity providers are some of the most stable and financially secure in world.
As a privately owned company, we are not reliant on the financing of outside investors or influences of third−party companies to maintain our independent financial stability. We are virtually debt−free and have experienced consistent growth and profitability over the years.
Most importantly, though, is our absolute commitment to the highest standards of ethics, integrity and service to our customers. As worldwide leaders in online trading, we are licensed and regularly audited on four continents to ensure our practices meet or exceed the standards set forth by the industry.
We thank you for choosing GFT to service your online trading needs and look forward to serving you for many years to come.
Sincerely,
Gary L. Tilkin, President and CEO


This is interesting, since it looks like a lot of people are trying to withdraw their funds, and brokers (and commercial banks in the near future) are coming under pressure to meet the requests.

Tough times lie ahead, really tough...

Make sure your funds are with a secure firm, if you could find one.


SG
  • #215
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:22pm Sep 17, 2008 7:22pm
what is causing all these crisis? war?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #216
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:38am Sep 18, 2008 12:38am
Quoting Obaidah
what is causing all these crisis? war?
Hello Obaidah,

It's a long story; but not a very complicated one. I'll give you one example, and probably you have/had lived through it;

Uncontrolled/leveraged lending and fractional system (as well as it allowed huge growth since 15-20 years, it has the same effect on the other side of the stick)

Pre 2007:

1) You go to a bank/website
2) Fill out some info, doesn't have to be 100% accurate
3) Get credit you ask for
4) Spend
5) Drive prices (goods, housing, ...; inflation to summarize)
6) Never pay back/pay some of it
7) Return the bad account and the goods you bought (car/house/etc...)
8) Bank writes it down

(I know people who was given $250K-$500K loans to buy house, when their income was around $25K)

This crisis will force both entities (banks/brokers) and people to live by their means.
  • #217
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:40am Sep 18, 2008 12:40am
BREAKING!

5 Major Central banks to inject $$$360 Billion into the system

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, announced coordinated measures Thursday to inject $360 billion worth of liquidity into frozen short-term credit markets. "These measures, together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets," the Bank of England said, in a statement. "The central banks will continue to work together closely and will take appropriate steps to address the ongoing pressures."
  • #218
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:49am Sep 18, 2008 12:49am
Liquidity deteriorates badly

Unseen jump in 3mTbills, taking the yield to almost 0%!

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/3mtbill.jpg
  • #219
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:02am Sep 18, 2008 1:02am
Update on Majors

As we have been pointing to an imminent USD top, majors are establishing medium - long term bottoms. EUR/USD pointing to 1.52 - 1.61 channel, which it broke lower and fell sharply mid summer. The actions of US Treasury has increased volatility to unseen levels, and USD's fundamentals are even looser than before.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/ima...eptember08.jpg
  • #220
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:13am Sep 18, 2008 1:13am
GBP/USD

One random update on GBP/USD

After yesterday's powerful jump during the US session, currently consolidating inside the US highs/lows. RSI is making new lows, not supported by the price action, highly bullish sentiment.

Will continue higher as Asian and EU highs are taken away. NO bearish sentiment until sub 1.7750s are seen.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture3.jpg
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