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  • #27,101
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:24am Sep 4, 2008 6:24am
Quoting filipf
This day looks like the gambling day instead of trading day. I took 35 pips all together and my system looks like rubbish for that.
Agree. Today was made for 5-15 pip scalps with tight SL's.
  • #27,102
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:26am Sep 4, 2008 6:26am
Quoting emmyi29
does anyone know where price is heading to?
That isn't obvious by reading this thread?
  • #27,103
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:31am Sep 4, 2008 6:31am
I am short at 14484
  • #27,104
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:36am Sep 4, 2008 6:36am
so we have sean the eur/usd falling for a long long time ..
from what i reckon is like this .. and i would like to get your opinion on it .

we have seen the eur\usd declining about 6.5% I'm a month and the gbp/usd also about 8% .
bigger institution which have lots more analysis working together sean the shift of the economic situation between the hemispheres .
so as i look at it the direction of the usd souled stay that way long term..
but the big fall ass we sow the last month were supported by the big institution's changing position according to economic changes ! ? ! ?

now for the thought .....
i marked 1.4439 as a major support line on the daily chart back from
7.2.08 and below it we have got another support line 1.4365 22.1.08
.
i saw the falling trend losing its stem and toke a long from the first talked about support line and destination is Ema 25 on the daily which is a little below the 1.6031 to 1.5633 trend line .
at my opinion this sould be the correction .
  • #27,105
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:36am Sep 4, 2008 6:36am
I'm short.

I listened to trichet and his question and answer session. It seems that he has a plan of when EU zone will be ok with inflation. He mentioned 2010. Fair enough.

Furthermore, when asked about the question of EUR/USD he basically said that in America there is a sentiment which says that a strong USD is good for the american economy.

It is obvious that what can be deduced from this is that the idea is that EUR should go down and USD should go up. This falls in line with what has happened since the sharp drop a month or two ago.

So long term is down for EUR/USD at this stage based off Trichet's talk.

He also was really careful to not mention the word 'recession' and that is hardly surprising. He seems to be equating the word recession with the word 'trough'.
  • #27,106
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:39am Sep 4, 2008 6:39am
Quoting Polonaise
I am short at 14484
Just a suggestion.

News at 10.
  • #27,107
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:41am Sep 4, 2008 6:41am
Quoting acumen
Just a suggestion.

News at 10.
i'm trying to close out all my positions by then.
  • #27,108
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:45am Sep 4, 2008 6:45am
A stupid thing on my part but just shows my ignorance of fundementals;

When Trichet came out to speak like all other news events, causes forex to go crazy on the exact minute that the person is due to speak. When Trichet was due to speak today, he had not uttered a word and yet the forex market and oil started to go crazy. Those are obviously algorithmic trading programs set to automatically trade in a particular direction based on the time of the day that the news event is to begin.

SO, that's why it makes sense to wait until AFTER the guys speaks and the news can be digested before making a decision as to where the market will go.

It's obvious but just not thing I've been thinking much of lately.
  • #27,109
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:49am Sep 4, 2008 6:49am
It is not smart to keep any position before ISM. But it smells neutral for me.
My view is that, without the ISM, pair would go down after speech in few hours. Things that Trichet said are definetly dollar bull, little packed up in cover, but dollar bull. Shorting small positions from 80s.
  • #27,110
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:51am Sep 4, 2008 6:51am
Quoting altrader
A stupid thing on my part but just shows my ignorance of fundementals;

When Trichet came out to speak like all other news events, causes forex to go crazy on the exact minute that the person is due to speak. When Trichet was due to speak today, he had not uttered a word and yet the forex market and oil started to go crazy. Those are obviously algorithmic trading programs set to automatically trade in a particular direction based on the time of the day that the news event is to begin.

SO, that's why it makes sense to wait until AFTER the guys speaks and the news can be digested before making a decision as to where the market will go.

It's obvious but just not thing I've been thinking much of lately.
News trading is a suckers game.

It's a crap shoot... I never trade before or immediately after a tier one release.
  • #27,111
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:52am Sep 4, 2008 6:52am
@4463
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #27,112
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:53am Sep 4, 2008 6:53am
does anyone has an idea what's the marketing heading?
  • #27,113
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:55am Sep 4, 2008 6:55am
Quoting acumen
News trading is a suckers game.

It's a crap shoot... I never trade before or immediately after a tier one release.
I opened my long about an hour ago
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #27,114
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:56am Sep 4, 2008 6:56am
Here's a great post on risk management, in case you have not seen it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post2199558
Even if your the worlds worst trader proper risk management will preserve your account long enough that you might actually learn something before you
empty it out.
  • #27,115
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:57am Sep 4, 2008 6:57am
Quoting forex killer
does anyone has an idea what's the marketing heading?
To the nearest nuddie bar for some beer and titties for the next hour or so. Then we will see...
  • #27,116
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:59am Sep 4, 2008 6:59am
Quoting acumen
News trading is a suckers game.

It's a crap shoot... I never trade before or immediately after a tier one release.
I agree with you. I won't be trading the news in the future any more. I just wanted to try something with correlating Oil and Gold.

I basically just wanted to see if the correlation between Oil and Gold and EUR/USD holds up during extreme volatillty. It turns out that it does hold up. Strange but true. Very interesting to observe. I only noticed this now because I never had a live feed of Oil. But since I downloaded fxpro demo account meta trader I can now watch the S&P500 as well as Oil and Gold, so I'm happy. I use Oanda for everything else.
  • #27,117
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:06am Sep 4, 2008 7:06am
I'm still bearish on the Euro, ISM notwithstanding.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #27,118
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:08am Sep 4, 2008 7:08am
30 pip drop on ISM. wonder how far it will go, doesnt look like its going to stop.

waiting for retrace, if any.
  • #27,119
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:14am Sep 4, 2008 7:14am
Never trade 30min each side of any news releases!
  • #27,120
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:17am Sep 4, 2008 7:17am
think this will retrace at all, anybody?

thanks,
M
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