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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #106,981
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:13am Aug 13, 2008 11:13am
Quoting Kn1vez
For GBP/JPY daily I have an open of 207.23 and a high of 207.33 for the day (FXDD).

For the third time ...
Guys, any ideas for tomorrow??? :-D
It's going east a bit
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #106,982
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:13am Aug 13, 2008 11:13am
Quoting Piters
bouced from Gann Fan 50 line: The Day is not over, but possible Pin bar on Daily, with retrace target on 209.50 [FIBO 618] + 5SMA [Daily]

Good luck guys..
Thanks Piters! I wil be giving it a rest today but will come back tomorrow morning. Good luck guys
  • #106,983
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:18am Aug 13, 2008 11:18am
ok, for those thinking longs....

usually when we get sell offs like these on GJ, price almost always retests lows, 4h pins are not always significant, we already had one today.

we currently made a successful 23.6 retracement (fibs placed from 213.90 to today's low). and trust me, those are usually sufficient in these kinds of falls... the first pullback we had earlier today was triggered (IMO) when price hit a weekly upper TL... this one would be because (again, IMO) because we hit a fibo fann level.

don't worry longs, u won't miss the train. and my advice would be to sell rallies in a CLEAR AND STRONG DOWNTREND!!!! again, trust me, lows will have to be retested..

just my thought.... i could be wrong as usual...
  • #106,984
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:19am Aug 13, 2008 11:19am
PM me.

Quoting arezab
Dear Scrat

Do you mind to share that "TrendRSI" indicator. Seems interesting.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #106,985
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:20am Aug 13, 2008 11:20am
Quoting rogerdoger
hope you're right so we can collect some more pips on the way up
Hmm, Technically YES, we should see those targets. But What I am worried is the other thing, Fundamental side.. I am seeing that banks are dumping their long swing positions:

Conclusion: YES we can make some more PIPS (but also return to the market as well.. it is a dangerous time, especially after such a move) SO run a positions, but PLAY short runs..

READ I posted yesterday:

Quoting Piters
TODAY is the day when BAN on naked short sales on biggest 10 financial intitutions is expired. As I remember it is a 10 day BAN, and the tenth day is 12 August..

"The commission pushed back expiration of its ban on so-called naked short sales of the firms’ stocks to Aug. 12, it said in a statement. The order “will not be further extended,” the S.E.C. said.
Some heavily shorted financial companies not covered by the previous order, such as National City and Wachovia, had sought to have their names added to the S.E.C.’s list. But the roster of 19 stocks remained the same.
The commission’s temporary order aims to keep traders from driving down financial stocks to bolster profits. Bear Stearns and IndyMac Bancorp collapsed amid rumors they were faltering."



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oao&refer=news

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20...t-sale-limits/
  • #106,986
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:20am Aug 13, 2008 11:20am
Quoting lilmoe
1) day ain't over yet...
2) i don't see a pinbar...
i don't either.
  • #106,987
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:24am Aug 13, 2008 11:24am
Quoting Piters
bouced from Gann Fan 50 line: The Day is not over, but possible Pin bar on Daily, with retrace target on 209.50 [FIBO 618] + 5SMA [Daily]

Good luck guys..

i have a confluence of fibo fans there as well. and from my own experience fibo fans are most likely retested.

ok ok..... fine, if we're going any higher to the levels u're thinking, i believe this daily candle has to close above 205.20 at least; that's the only significant level i can think of... and no i don't think 204 more significant than 205.20...
  • #106,988
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:26am Aug 13, 2008 11:26am
Hmmm......Maybe up or down, I think, (my guess is up, because on ,monthly, it's gone up before, unlike other pairs I know, cough, cough gbp/aud)
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  • #106,989
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:27am Aug 13, 2008 11:27am
Quoting lilmoe
i have a confluence of fibo fans there as well. and from my own experience fibo fans are most likely retested.

ok ok..... fine, if we're going any higher to the levels u're thinking, i believe this daily candle has to close above 205.20 at least; that's the only significant level i can think of... and no i don't think 204 more significant than 205.20...
sorry, 205.40
  • #106,990
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:30am Aug 13, 2008 11:30am
Quoting mirdaniel
Hey lilmoe,

I know that you are one of the good one in here, like I said on a previous post, a friend of mine got cut on this pair with a buy at 208.40. (Rubenescooto will join later on-just register) I don't know this pair well enough to advice him. I know this pair is know for 38.2%retracement, any chances from here? then he will get out with a smaller lost

Thank bro

In a strong downtrend pairs ONLY retrace to 38 % fib. The fact that the bear flag on the daily retraced to only 38% fib of the moved 250 to 192 indicates that GJ is still in a strong down trend.

On this note we may get only a retrace to 38 % fib of move down which takes us to 207.66 , but who knows with the price action in the markets last few days. This pair could just keep on going down.

There has been some nice bounces , todays 200 pips was one of them .

I would suggest he uses stops next time and do not get married to positions
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #106,991
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:30am Aug 13, 2008 11:30am
Quoting lilmoe
i have a confluence of fibo fans there as well. and from my own experience fibo fans are most likely retested.

ok ok..... fine, if we're going any higher to the levels u're thinking, i believe this daily candle has to close above 205.20 at least; that's the only significant level i can think of... and no i don't think 204 more significant than 205.20...
In some other time YES, I exited from my LONGS when we touched DPP. I had EY [161.77] and GY [202.84] long, and exited with 390 pips together When I got reversal on 5min. Just read my last post, and that why..

As I said, technicaly we should see higher targerts but BANKS are dumping their positions, and tomorrow we are going to see..

so NO trades for me until tomorrow London.
  • #106,992
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:33am Aug 13, 2008 11:33am
forex is a dealers market, ie dealer sets price, so while some of us see pinbars on NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, some of us don't...which kind of sucks if you ask me
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #106,993
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:34am Aug 13, 2008 11:34am
Quoting arezab
And GC is winking to me for a nice long position targeting at least 2.0600 that is +330 pips from here. GC has completed %78.6 fib retrace but I think this fall is not ripe yet. 2.0200 as a tough historical support is a fantastic place to go long ...

I'll enter as soon as PA on H4 tells me to do so.
that bearish div on daily has a long way to play out yet .....think sub 2.0000

but hey what do I care what she does as long as she gives me 50 pips a day

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #106,994
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:37am Aug 13, 2008 11:37am
Quoting dogberry
I am frustrated. I used a big TSL at 205.10. Half of my profits from shorting are lost.
welcome to the beast
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #106,995
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:39am Aug 13, 2008 11:39am
just a thought...
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  • #106,996
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:54am Aug 13, 2008 11:54am
an opportunity to add another long... IF confirmed.

Quoting khaled22
Dear,
its break 204 and go to 205.36 the come back to 204.66 , what you understand from this move???
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #106,997
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:55am Aug 13, 2008 11:55am
Quoting lilmoe
sorry, 205.40
Dear lilmoe,
did you think the candle for today will close about 205.40????
  • #106,998
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:04pm Aug 13, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting khaled22
Dear lilmoe,
did you think the candle for today will close about 205.40????

no idea... i'll wait to see.

i'm really not worried what happens in the short run, i already cashed lots of profit at 206.50 earlier, and lots more at 202.60 (thank god).

i see all rallies opportunities to add more SHORTS, on the contrary of a trader who bites on nuts...
  • #106,999
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:12pm Aug 13, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting lilmoe
no idea... i'll wait to see.

i'm really not worried what happens in the short run, i already cashed lots of profit at 206.50 earlier, and lots more at 202.60 (thank god).

i see all rallies opportunities to add more SHORTS, on the contrary of a trader who bites on nuts...
Lilmoe,
to what level do you think this is going before starting to go down again?
May be it will go just a little bit above 205.4 to do some stop hunting and then go down?
Thanks
Marc
  • #107,000
  • Aug 13, 2008 12:13pm Aug 13, 2008 12:13pm
what's the SL of your shorts? Thanks!

Quoting lilmoe
no idea... i'll wait to see.

i'm really not worried what happens in the short run, i already cashed lots of profit at 206.50 earlier, and lots more at 202.60 (thank god).

i see all rallies opportunities to add more SHORTS, on the contrary of a trader who bites on nuts...
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