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AshFX Daily

  • #2,021
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:47am Aug 8, 2008 10:47am
Hey Airx, did you not take the Eur/Chf short?
  • #2,022
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:16am Aug 8, 2008 11:16am
Quoting yen44x
Trade Update:

  1. eur/chf short: 1 lot closed at +50; 2nd lot is now at +39.

If this trade can get moving, there's some potential for a decent trade. The lows have been getting lower since 5/9. If you run a fib from 3/17 to the high, the trend line corresponds just about exactly with a 38.2% fib retracement. If you instead run the fib from 4/10 to the high, the trend line corresponds with the 61.8% fib retracement.

Either way, that would bring us to a price of about 1.5975, which would be a cool 300 pips on this trade. Of course, it has a long way to go to hit that target, and both currencies really got clobbered against virtually all other currencies today, so it will be interesting to see if it drops.

I don't see any new AshFX trades that I'm excited about, so it looks like eur/chf will be my only trade going into next week.

Excellent analysis Yen, lets make this happen. Lost -150 pips on the Gbp/Chf trade, need to make it up somehow, hahaha
  • #2,023
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:33am Aug 8, 2008 11:33am
Quoting TraderJSS
Excellent analysis Yen, lets make this happen. Lost -150 pips on the Gbp/Chf trade, need to make it up somehow, hahaha
Well, to use a baseball analogy, aim for singles and just let the home runs happen. One pip at a time. I know most of the civilized world prefers soccer (football), but I have no idea how to translate that analogy.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,024
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:37am Aug 8, 2008 11:37am
Quoting yen44x
Well, to use a baseball analogy, aim for singles and just let the home runs happen. One pip at a time. I know most of the civilized world prefers soccer (football), but I have no idea how to translate that analogy.
Keep playing the short simple passes, and the goals will come.
  • #2,025
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:40am Aug 8, 2008 11:40am
Quoting forexmoments
Keep playing the short simple passes, and the goals will come.
Thank you! I knew Ash would come through in the ninth inning. Oh darn, I'm back to baseball analogies again.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,026
  • Aug 8, 2008 12:46pm Aug 8, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting yen44x
Thank you! I knew Ash would come through in the ninth inning. Oh darn, I'm back to baseball analogies again.
You're testing me now Yen, sent me the wrong way.
  • #2,027
  • Edited 3:52pm Aug 8, 2008 12:58pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting forexmoments
You're testing me now Yen, sent me the wrong way.
Sorry, that last one came out of left field . . . oh, phooey, I did it again. No more baseball analogies.

Anyway, it was a good week for the AshFX system. I didn't take a lot of trades, but the ones I did take returned a profit of 244 pips. I'll gladly take that any week.

The one trade I still have open is the eur/chf short. I closed the first lot at +50 and the second lot ended the day at +46.

Here's a summary of this week's trades:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AshFX WE 08-0808.gif Size: 14 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,028
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:46pm Aug 8, 2008 5:46pm
I just checked on airx3000 trades. Correct me if I am wrong. Aud/Cad Short Trade ,second strength as stock below 50.Entry.9724 Stop at swing high .9840 TP1 at .9653.. Stop never reached(highest candle.9812)TP1 hit on July 30.Eur/Jpy Short Trade, second strength as stock below 50. Entry at 167.43 Stop at a69.95 (swing high)Tp1 at 166. ( Stop not reached high candle 169.46) Tp1 reached on 8/8. @nd lot toB/E. Chf/Yen not a trade as candle is bullish.Gbp/Chf 15 july trade a 199pip lossx2. 17th July in profit.
  • #2,029
  • Edited 10:45pm Aug 8, 2008 10:25pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting Chuckb
I just checked on airx3000 trades. Correct me if I am wrong. Aud/Cad Short Trade ,second strength as stock below 50.Entry.9724 Stop at swing high .9840 TP1 at .9653.. Stop never reached(highest candle.9812)TP1 hit on July 30.Eur/Jpy Short Trade, second strength as stock below 50. Entry at 167.43 Stop at a69.95 (swing high)Tp1 at 166. ( Stop not reached high candle 169.46) Tp1 reached on 8/8. @nd lot toB/E. Chf/Yen not a trade as candle is bullish.Gbp/Chf 15 july trade a 199pip lossx2. 17th July in profit.
I think you're correct in every example you mentioned.

Of the four trades you noted, two should never have been taken per AshFX rules. That includes the CHF/JPY trade you mentioned, as well as the AUD/CAD trade. Both were short signals, but each had a bullish signal candle, so neither trade was valid.

If the stop loss rules for a Second Strength trade had been followed, the EUR/JPY trade would not have been stopped out just as you noted. The first lot would have closed at +97 and the second lot would now be about 190 pips up.

The other trade you mentioned was the GBP/CHF short. However, this was never a signal on FXDD charts, which is what Ash recommends for this system (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=648), so this trade also would not have been taken had that suggestion been heeded.

This isn't meant to cast stones at airx3000 because it's easy to forget details in the heat of trading, but it does illustrate the importance of following the AshFX rules and recommendations to the letter for best results. In this case, it would have prevented some substantial losses.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,030
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:26pm Aug 8, 2008 10:26pm
Quoting dragonk100
Iam from South Africa, so I speak Afrikaans.
Viva Mandala!


  • #2,031
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:32pm Aug 8, 2008 10:32pm
Quoting andante9


andante, you're taking the use of emoticons to a new level.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,032
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:44pm Aug 8, 2008 10:44pm
It was there - I had to swing. . .
  • #2,033
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:55pm Aug 8, 2008 10:55pm
Hi all

I know this thread is about manual trades and that there is a seperate thread for EA but it seems to me that maybe we should have a look at the two methods side by side for a second

I am mostly seeing bad reports for this system here on the 'manual' thread.
Meanwhile on my demo account which has no manual trading decsisions there has been positive results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18 ash august 08 08.jpg Size: 271 KB
  • #2,034
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:58pm Aug 8, 2008 10:58pm
Quoting andante9
Hi all

I know this thread is about manual trades and that there is a seperate thread for EA but it seems to me that maybe we should have a look at the two methods side by side for a second

I am mostly seeing bad reports for this system here on the 'manual' thread.
Meanwhile on my demo account which has no manual trading decsisions there has been positive results.
Attachment
Very nice trading, andante.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,035
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:07pm Aug 8, 2008 11:07pm
One final thought before I get to bed because it's 1 a.m. here in Mexico. Come to think of it, what am I doing on FF at 1 am on a non-trading day? Note to self: Get a life.

Anyway, back to my final thought. Baseball's my favorite game, and I got kind of caught up in baseball cliches earlier, but this question really applies to any sport: Don't you just hate it when well-paid players dog it?

Good night and good trading!
Attached Image
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,036
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:26pm Aug 8, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting yen44x
One final thought before I get to bed because it's 1 a.m. here in Mexico. Come to think of it, what am I doing on FF at 1 am on a non-trading day? Note to self: Get a life.

Anyway, back to my final thought. Baseball's my favorite game, and I got kind of caught up in baseball cliches earlier, but this question really applies to any sport: Don't you just hate it when well-paid players dog it?

Good night and good trading!

g'nite amigo
  • #2,037
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:03am Aug 9, 2008 12:03am
You are so right except for Gbp/Chf on my FXDD platform shows Psar down,candle red,ac/ao red ,stock between 20-50. Could you recheck for me please. I never would have taken this trade as too close to lower trend line. I would suggest to all to use a check list to clarify trades. As you can see it is easy to overlook little details. Waterflame has given us a remarkable method ,used with trendlines and discrection works wonders. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #2,038
  • Aug 9, 2008 9:14am Aug 9, 2008 9:14am
Quoting Chuckb
You are so right except for Gbp/Chf on my FXDD platform shows Psar down,candle red,ac/ao red ,stock between 20-50. Could you recheck for me please. I never would have taken this trade as too close to lower trend line. I would suggest to all to use a check list to clarify trades. As you can see it is easy to overlook little details. Waterflame has given us a remarkable method ,used with trendlines and discrection works wonders. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
You are correct regarding the 7/15 trade. However, I believe airx3000 was referring to a different trade, because his post is commenting on his results since 8/1. I think the GBP/CHF short trade he was referring to was on 8/4 (check this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1914).

However, that short signal never occurred on the FXDD chart. Apparently the signal appeared at some brokers, but not on FXDD, which as noted before is the broker Ash recommends for AshFX signals. If FXDD signals had been used instead, the last signal on GBP/CHF was on 7/17, a long trade that proved to be profitable as shown on the attached chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-chf.gif Size: 24 KB
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #2,039
  • Aug 9, 2008 12:46pm Aug 9, 2008 12:46pm
Please You Can Give Me A Link On Fibronacci Retracement For Better Entry And Exit. I Mean How You Guys Do The Analysis With Support And Resistance. Waiting For Reply Anxiously
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #2,040
  • Edited 1:17pm Aug 9, 2008 1:04pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting adeforex
Please You Can Give Me A Link On Fibronacci Retracement For Better Entry And Exit. I Mean How You Guys Do The Analysis With Support And Resistance. Waiting For Reply Anxiously
Have you looked at www.babypips.com? They do a nice job of explaining trading basics. Here's a couple of their links that discuss support and resistance as well as Fibonacci:

http://www.babypips.com/school/suppo...esistance.html

http://www.babypips.com/school/fibonacci_who.html

Once you develop an eye for it, you should be able to note significant S & R on any chart with just a quick glance.

Good luck with it.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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