No Brainer Trades

Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Thanks for the valuable input to the thread.

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Quoting Gregus83

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Been thinking about a "No Brainer" checklist - an overview that basically sums up the process of identifying and executing the no brainer trade. Here's what I've come up with:

1. Identify previous tried and tested, obvious support/resistance points and mark what your ideal entry range would be while noting those areas of s/r that may prove to be showstoppers for the proposed trade(s).
2. Identify any confluence of targeted entry point with other factors: fibs, trendlines etc that may be add further evidence to the validity of the trade.
3. Confirm the sentiment currently being experienced in the chosen market - alter targets/stops accordingly to reduce risk, or be that bit more ambitious. Does the market sentiment further validate the trade?
4. Check the imminent news releases that may affect the chosen market - what potential effect can they have, thinking more about the negative side of things.
5. Once satisfied, place order.
6. Be patient.
7. Once the trade is live, be alert and manage the trade effectively.

Bear in mind, this is supposed to be a quick overview of the strategy. Have I missed anything or conveyed anything incorrectly?

Greg

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Not really.....you guys seem to be getting it better and better. I like this checklist. Thanks for sharing! Only other thing that came to my mind is don't hesitate. You just have to go for it if you know that all the stars are aligned, but more of a generalism, not something to look out for.

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Quoting Iron-man

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Well, here we are, the month of August. This could be the single most dangerous month in the whole year for currency trading. Thin markets = violent swings across the board. Doubt what I say? By all means look at the past history yourself. It will thrill the amateur trader as they count all the retrospective pips they might have made and it will chill the professional trader to the bone as they picture their account going down in flames like a Japenese Zero in a WW II movie. Make no mistake, there is opportunity and there is peril. No, August is not for the faint of heart. Now that you have been summarily warned I will give my thoughts on the market for August.

NFP proved to be a raging disappointment, as the numbers just weren’t bad enough to fuel doom and gloom sentiment for the greenback.

The USDCHF is currently topping out @ 1.0510 area. 1.0520 has been a descent sell level in the past and while this area holds opportunity for 10-20 pip gains in the short term, beware of the range that lulls you to sleep. I see more upside for this pair. 106 and beyond are not out of reach.

EURUSD…. Oh, how I love to sell thee. Can it rise? Should it rise? Sure, but the trend is down. I’m watching levels to find spots to sell with the trend. Remember, countertrend bounces off levels give up 10-20 pips, (except for the rare occasion that you catch a bottom or a top.) but a reaction with the trend can be 100-200+ run.

GBPUSD, I know what you did last summer. 1,000 pip dive from 7/25 until 8/17 followed by a 700 pip recovery from 8/17 to 9/12. This eventually lead us to a new high above 2.10 that culminated in the most lovely pin bar ever seen on Nov 4th (weekly chart) before selling off again. But I’m not sentimental. With a break of 1.9735 there is more downside to be had. I don’t expect a break above 1.9900 for the month but we will see where the currency currents take us.

USDCAD, The CAD moves like the syrup they so proudly export most of the time, but after forming a double bottom on the 4hr from 7/15 to 7/17 it has climbed 280+ pips. It is currently finding a home from 1.0295 to the 1.0220 area. I’m looking for more upside above 103 but that usually means a pullback to get us there. So I’m watching lower levels for a buy.

So there you have it. Tread lightly and guard your equity, because at the end of the day it is all you have!

***Disclaimer***

The comments noted here are for educational purposes only and should not be substituted for the advice of a professional broker, who needs your money more than you do. No warranties, expressed or implied. Batteries not included. Women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant should use extreme caution.

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Quoting jest1081

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- deleted -

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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Thanks Ironman for your intro to August I've been nervous about it myself cause I've heard a lot of talk about the dreaded month but haven't really known exactly what to expect - I'm glad to learn the market still moves!!!

Just a quick question on how you determine important levels....

It seems if you draw a random horizontal line anywhere on the chart you can scroll back and find countless times it has been used as both support and resistance so my question is this..

When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?

Sound like a stupid question but I think an answer here will clarify my understanding of how you go about finding these points.

I've attached a chart of GBP/USD of what I think are potential turning points - Any comments would be much appreciated cheers

The thick lines are Major points the normal lines are minor ones and the dotted line is a weaker one (In my interpretation)

Also... How many pairs do you guys watch at once?

Cheers

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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Thanks Ironman for your intro to August I've been nervous about it myself cause I've heard a lot of talk about the dreaded month but haven't really known exactly what to expect - I'm glad to learn the market still moves!!!

Just a quick question on how you determine important levels....

It seems if you draw a random horizontal line anywhere on the chart you can scroll back and find countless times it has been used as both support and resistance so my question is this..

When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?

Sound like a stupid question but I think an answer here will clarify my understanding of how you go about finding these points.

I've attached a chart of GBP/USD of what I think are potential turning points - Any comments would be much appreciated cheers

The thick lines are Major points the normal lines are minor ones and the dotted line is a weaker one (In my interpretation)

Also... How many pairs do you guys watch at once?

Cheers

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Quoting Tulip

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Hey BRV whats your take on aus/usd?

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Quoting Iron-man

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I looks to me that you have already received very good advice from others here, CindyXXXXX. Just remember, if it was resistance on the way up, then expect it to be support on the way down and vice versa.

I agree with analysis that starts at the monthly and comes down to the 4 hour. I am looking for lines that have been both, support and resistance. It has been mentioned in this thread before but it is worth repeating. The two lines that mean the most are the oldest and the most recent. The bulk of intraday levels for me come from the 4 Hour and daily. I tend to trade from the one hour because I get more detail on price action. I will track an open trade on a 5M chart as I have demonstrated in the past.

The lines you will get from the higher time frames will be few but will be rock solid when they come along. An example would be the AUDUSD trade posted here awhile back. Sell at .9650 This was a monthly high from the spring of 1984. The Aussie eventually pushed through this area but not before it gave up quite a few pips several times at this level.

I never put it all on my trade being a turning point. I actually prefer to be with the trend. And yes the 76.4% fib is a whole lesson in itself when using it to trade. It is probably the level that gets the least attention and is the level with the biggest payoff. At this point there is often trend continuation but even when it does not hold, there is often a reaction in this area.

One of the things we have to be careful with trading support and resistance is that we don't sell out to a complete contrarian mindset. S&R trading can be that and it can just as easily be played with the trend by playing a pullback to a level in the current trend direction. Countertrend trades rarely give up more than 40 pips unless we do catch the reversal on those rare occasions. So do I take countertrend trades? Sure I do, but with the proper expectations.

As far as what currencies I watch. It's the majors USDJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD. I also watch the EURJPY and GBPJPY to a lesser degree. I watch Crude Oil, Gold and S&P mini futures for their correlation to currency movements.

I hope this helps and feel free to ask for clarification if I have been unclear in any way.

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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A lot of resistance there Daily R1 15m 200 EMA and of course horizontal S/R

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Hi Tulip.....I'm all over this one mainly looking for a reversal here down to .9000. The carry selloff trend remains fully intact, but any further conviction of a standstill in rates from Austrailia this week could give it the correction upwards it hasen't yet been able to achieve. I would say of all the rate announcements this week, AUD seems the most likely at this point to change, and that would be to the lower side....just have to wait one more day to find out. That, of course, is just going to keep pushing it down, but at this point the bottom line is we've seen a sharp decline in price and nothing in terms of movement upwards over the past couple of weeks.

The trend I'm looking to trade at this point is still down though, but I'm really not looking to hit any home runs on it in either direction. I just dont have the conviction on this pair as I have had with it in the past, unfortunately.....the carry trade factor has weighed big on this pair, and as conditions continue I feel it's just increasingly difficult to make a hard call on it. Sorry for the somewhat ambiguous answer but just trying to be honest here with how I feel on it.

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Quoting BillyRayValentine

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Oh and interesting it shall be.

I use Sundays to catch up on reading, summing up the last week and finding out as many views as possible into the week ahead. Based on everything I've gone through, here's what I'm coming up with so far:

Last week's string of "Not as bad as expected but still utterly horrible" news from the US gave the dollar some strength worth noting and now we find ourselves stuck cleaning up after the mess, so to speak.

This coming week is slammed with interest rate announcements, all of which are expected to stay flat, and I would find it hard to believe that any of the officials making statements this week can do anything short-term in regards to their respective rates. The economies in question are considerably soft right now, and raising rates during times like these would be like taking the air out of your own tires, but that doesnt mean that any will hint at raising them in the upcoming month if things get better, which they might.

Any statements like this are going to move the currencies, so watch out and read the clues carefully, and ride the trend if anything explosive happens; dont try to fight it.

Aside from interest rates, we've now got a dollar uptrend, which should in any normal market be getting a correction at this point.....its just these announcements that have me on edge before selling USD. Unfortunately dont have the time right now to get into too much detail on an individual basis, I'm expecting a lift against the dollar this week at some point, but mainly more mixed reactions or continuation of a downtrend. Of course all of this could be a complete wash if the wrong thing gets said or anyone shocks the world by changing rates...as usual we just have to see....

Its going to be volatile, so just use your judgement and most importantly, stay on your toes to get the most out of your trades...good levels out there so I'll post some later on throughout the day.

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Quoting ffbk

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Posting chart for first time... Hopefully it comes fine...

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Quoting finswin56

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Billy, didn't you have a No Brainer picked for 9290?
Getting pretty close to that. Just wondering how you feel about it.

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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Thanks Ironman for your intro to August I've been nervous about it myself cause I've heard a lot of talk about the dreaded month but haven't really known exactly what to expect - I'm glad to learn the market still moves!!!

Just a quick question on how you determine important levels....

It seems if you draw a random horizontal line anywhere on the chart you can scroll back and find countless times it has been used as both support and resistance so my question is this..

When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?

Sound like a stupid question but I think an answer here will clarify my understanding of how you go about finding these points.

I've attached a chart of GBP/USD of what I think are potential turning points - Any comments would be much appreciated cheers

The thick lines are Major points the normal lines are minor ones and the dotted line is a weaker one (In my interpretation)

Also... How many pairs do you guys watch at once?

Cheers

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Quoting Tulip

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Thanks alot BRV very helpful, im waiting patiently for the news tomorrow, and although a drop down to the .90 area will be good for collecting pips it wont help my travel plans at the exchange LOL. i think the RBA will be neutral, previouse rate hikes has hit alot of aussies hard and spending is down here. wait and see i guess, thanks alot for the reply.

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