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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,681
  • Feb 9, 2007 9:30am Feb 9, 2007 9:30am
Stay Long
  • #5,682
  • Feb 9, 2007 10:18am Feb 9, 2007 10:18am
Quoting cesarnc
This is USD index. Ranging since early spike up on early 2007. All the rest we've seen were GB rate hike and Yen speculation.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Filtering the information, fx market is flat for a whole month. Since USD is not in the building for a long time, I'd say that GBP and EUR are just hanging, running for direction that USD is not providing. That big move down was merely a correction on the rate hike. EUR is the only one clearly ranging sideways for weeks Its lower volatility (compared to Cable), makes the pattern pop up easily.

I'm calling it a week. Every 10 pip move we see now is a result of some guy farting in the G7 meeting. If it's an Englishman, Cable up, if it is a Japanese, Yen down.

Thanks for your input cesarnc-
-Taters
  • #5,683
  • Feb 10, 2007 10:30am Feb 10, 2007 10:30am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Stay Long
u need to be smiling right?
its just money
  • #5,684
  • Feb 11, 2007 7:04am Feb 11, 2007 7:04am
http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-11-2007.PNG
  • #5,685
  • Feb 11, 2007 7:28am Feb 11, 2007 7:28am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-11-2007.PNG
nice artwork!
  • #5,686
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:33pm Feb 11, 2007 2:33pm
New week starting, Sunday 8:30pm here in Brazil... I decided to skip this Asian session to wait for Yen carries to absorb G7, last week's positions, so forth.

I'm expecting 4h 250EMA to hold this up move that is clearly a carry trading, but I really don't know. It will serve as some retracement we never saw last week.

I'm still on the down side, awaiting for Fra open. Initially targeting 9421, for tomorrow.

Have a nice week you all. Let's rip this banks off
  • #5,687
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:57pm Feb 11, 2007 2:57pm
With the way the weekly has once again bounced off of that longer term trendline, it will be interesting to see how this week turns out. As for current market direction, in the immediate short short term it is looking ranging to up, however, I will be curious to see how the market reacts in the 9575-9600 level if it reaches it. Any retracement down below 9500 and I will wait for RSI pivot confirmation on 1600 tick to take this to the long side - it may just take some time as this current move down has been a strong directional move and the bottom may first need to round off slightly before any safe long position trades are taken - not to mention we are below key rsi levels which could signal a significant pop to the downside. If however we get a good retracement prior to this double bottom forming and the rounding off of the directional trend, I will be looking to short upon confirmation. As of right now, a close on 1600 tick above 9542 will be my minimal level to look for potential short trade - I may have missed the boat on this one!!
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,688
  • Feb 11, 2007 3:49pm Feb 11, 2007 3:49pm
I'll be also checking USD-index during this week, as to be able to check carry trading.

Friday's USD index daily candle is an acute pin-bar suggesting dollar short on Monday. But the down pressure were caused by yen carry trades, so I'll wait and see...

Daily USD-index here

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Hope it helps
  • #5,689
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:12pm Feb 11, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting cesarnc

...I'm calling it a week. Every 10 pip move we see now is a result of some guy farting in the G7 meeting. If it's an Englishman, Cable up, if it is a Japanese, Yen down.

If its a Portuguese guy - its probably me

In all seriousness, the market may be very quiet this week - Seems like everyone is too busy trying to claim Dannielynn Smith as their baby.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,690
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:23pm Feb 11, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'll be also checking USD-index during this week, as to be able to check carry trading.

Friday's USD index daily candle is an acute pin-bar suggesting dollar short on Monday. But the down pressure were caused by yen carry trades, so I'll wait and see...

Daily USD-index here

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Hope it helps
What I see between the index and euro is a state of balanced order flow. Euro is within 40 pips on the high of the high of the consolidation range for 2006 b4 the breakout. We have now returned to test that breakout multiple times over 6 weeks. While I trade cable because of its volatility, that volatility is caused by lack of liquidity. Overall, right now the tide is ebb. The waves are coming in definable sets, and the ripples try to test my stop losses. Pound actually has a ways to go short to acheive an equilibrium with euro. Doesn't mean it will, just an observation. Right now I am intraday trading only until I actually see a trend emerge. This simply means I run tight stop losses and have no problem admitting error. The last 6 weeks I think a coin flip would be the best due to non usd directed action. If we are trully rolling over to a Euro dominated market Europe will get hurt just as the US has in the past. Many more mentions of "sovreign" bank action. Maybe one world currency is alot closer than we think. Just food for thought.
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  • #5,691
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:18pm Feb 11, 2007 8:18pm
I am going to say that I am seeing numbers like 1.9603 and 1.9647 which possible for us to reach maybe today or tomorrow...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,692
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:36pm Feb 11, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I am going to say that I am seeing numbers like 1.9603 and 1.9647 which possible for us to reach maybe today or tomorrow...
What is your source? From what I understood it was going to hit around 1.9250's. The USD is going to rally this week.
  • #5,693
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:57pm Feb 11, 2007 8:57pm
Back to you. What's your source? Where do you based your analysis?

Quoting $$Trader$$
What is your source? From what I understood it was going to hit around 1.9250's. The USD is going to rally this week.
  • #5,694
  • Feb 11, 2007 9:45pm Feb 11, 2007 9:45pm
This is the 3rd test in 3 HRS of this level. It will be interesting to see if we can get a candle to close above this mark...........
Show me the PIPS!
  • #5,695
  • Feb 11, 2007 10:14pm Feb 11, 2007 10:14pm
Quoting $$Trader$$
What is your source? From what I understood it was going to hit around 1.9250's. The USD is going to rally this week.
Enlightment after looking at the chart....
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,696
  • Feb 11, 2007 10:19pm Feb 11, 2007 10:19pm
With spiritual enlightenment I proclaim the GBP/USD LONG!
Show me the PIPS!
  • #5,697
  • Feb 11, 2007 10:22pm Feb 11, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting $$Trader$$
What is your source? From what I understood it was going to hit around 1.9250's. The USD is going to rally this week.
I think your both right!
  • #5,698
  • Feb 11, 2007 10:51pm Feb 11, 2007 10:51pm
double low bar with higher close on 5 minutes chart...what else can you ask for...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,699
  • Feb 11, 2007 11:10pm Feb 11, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
double low bar with higher close on 5 minutes chart...what else can you ask for...
zarul i think analysis and working base on 5 min charts it's looks like scalping and gambling, i have failed many times trying in 5 min chart, the more accurate is 4h and 1h and then you may trade 15min based on them, but you seems master on those small time frame
  • #5,700
  • Feb 11, 2007 11:31pm Feb 11, 2007 11:31pm
Quoting mohsen57
zarul i think analysis and working base on 5 min charts it's looks like scalping and gambling, i have failed many times trying in 5 min chart, the more accurate is 4h and 1h and then you may trade 15min based on them, but you seems master on those small time frame
Well, perhaps, but I trade from daily chart to even 5 seconds chart...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
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