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  • #661
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:09am Jun 18, 2008 4:09am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Yeah, that's right. Higher TF = less often hit but higher probability
of reversal i.e bounce (for support level) or retracement (for resistance level)

May be you know this site but babypips.com is very good and for free, learned there myself and is widely recommended for solid basics
Thanks, will do.
  • #662
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:37am Jun 18, 2008 11:37am
That USDCHF sell trade posted earlier is up about 100 pips right now.

The Aussie was a short term stall but it did pay off 30 pips which I was glad to take. I am watching price as it nears the .9470 area. It may be good for another sell there but I am just watching it at this point.

I have closed out my USDCAD from boredom more than anything which means it will probably move now. LOL

Euro yen hit a daily high in the area of 167.91-168.05 and bounced nicely. If it gets back up there today I would gladly sell it again.

UsdJPY paid off once again as well. Hit the 108.35 and has moved down to the 107.74 line perfectly.

So all in all it is shaping up to be a good week, better than I expected as there is alot of ranging in the currencies. Which means a breakout is sure to come.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #663
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:55am Jun 18, 2008 11:55am
Quoting lesterthecat
Hi All, great thread, learning lots. I do have a really basic question which I think I know the answer to but would really like some opinions form the more experienced traders. I cannot monitor the markets all day so have been using daily and 4h charts to date. I presume I should therefore be looking only at S&R levels on these time frames. I guess the higher the TF the stronger the S&R level (???) but will be hit less often. Apologies if this seems basic for this thread but thanks for any comments.
Yes that is a good question. Alot of people associate larger timeframes with larger swing trades. While it certainly can be that it doesn't have to be. I have to give the credit to Jim Herndon in the J16 thread who once said that not only CAN you daytrade from a daily chart, you SHOULD. Genearlly your best reaction points will be Monthly, weekly, daily and 4hour. Once you have defined where S&R lines are you can drill down to 1 Hour for more detail. I even go to five minutes for more detail of price action once I am in a trade.
I am trading from the larger timeframe. I am using the 5M to track tyhe detailed price action to tell me when a run is over (double tops and bottoms, exhaustion spikes, and consolidation. Stuff like that. Hope this helps. Oh and in addition to www.babypips.com (which is a very good resource, Thanks Mary) you can also go to www.PFXglobal.com
They have some intro courses that are very good as well.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #664
  • Jun 18, 2008 12:06pm Jun 18, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting Iron-man
Yes that is a good question. Alot of people associate larger timeframes with larger swing trades. While it certainly can be that it doesn't have to be. I have to give the credit to Jim Herndon in the J16 thread who once said that not only CAN you daytrade from a daily chart, you SHOULD. Genearlly your best reaction points will be Monthly, weekly, daily and 4hour. Once you have defined where S&R lines are you can drill down to 1 Hour for more detail. I even go to five minutes for more detail of price action once I am in a trade.
I am trading from the larger timeframe. I am using the 5M to track tyhe detailed price action to tell me when a run is over (double tops and bottoms, exhaustion spikes, and consolidation. Stuff like that. Hope this helps. Oh and in addition to www.babypips.com (which is a very good resource, Thanks Mary) you can also go to www.PFXglobal.com
They have some intro courses that are very good as well.

Again, thanks for the help. Due to not being able to monitor the screen I usually set limit orders at the entry point (give or take a few pips for spread etc) and see if price reaches before a bounce. Are you saying in the above you do the same but then use the lower TF to pick the exit or do you use low TF PA for entry as well.
  • #665
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:29pm Jun 18, 2008 1:29pm
Hi, I have reading thru this thread completely. I have to say S/R and PA are the way to go. Great work for starting this thread BRV and sharing your thought and insight. Maybe I missed it somewhere, but can you/anyone share exactly what criteria do you use to draw your horizontal S/R line? I mean does it have to hit that point a certain numbers of time to be consider a major R/S? Also, on how do we know if it will reverse or bounce off of that point, do we look at the 4HR, 1HR or the daily to confirm if it will bounce or not? What is your way or BRV strategy to confirm that it will bounce off that? Hope I am making sense. Thanks again.







Quoting Iron-man
That USDCHF sell trade posted earlier is up about 100 pips right now.

The Aussie was a short term stall but it did pay off 30 pips which I was glad to take. I am watching price as it nears the .9470 area. It may be good for another sell there but I am just watching it at this point.

I have closed out my USDCAD from boredom more than anything which means it will probably move now. LOL

Euro yen hit a daily high in the area of 167.91-168.05 and bounced nicely. If it gets back up there today I would gladly sell it again.

UsdJPY paid off once again as well. Hit the 108.35 and has moved down to the 107.74 line perfectly.

So all in all it is shaping up to be a good week, better than I expected as there is alot of ranging in the currencies. Which means a breakout is sure to come.
  • #666
  • Jun 18, 2008 2:25pm Jun 18, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting SeaPip
Hi, I have reading thru this thread completely. I have to say S/R and PA are the way to go. Great work for starting this thread BRV and sharing your thought and insight. Maybe I missed it somewhere, but can you/anyone share exactly what criteria do you use to draw your horizontal S/R line? I mean does it have to hit that point a certain numbers of time to be consider a major R/S? Also, on how do we know if it will reverse or bounce off of that point, do we look at the 4HR, 1HR or the daily to confirm if it will bounce or not? What is your way or BRV strategy to confirm that it will bounce off that? Hope I am making sense. Thanks again.

Hi SeaPip,

Yeah I agree, BRV method really is something else and he seems to be able to make very accurate predictions on reversals, sometimes almost to the pip.
He currently away but may be you would like to check out his other thread where he outlined his method.
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87869

Guess that true mastery comes only with practise, that's where I am now (I mean the practising), but its a brilliant method and surely with time and effort there will be success. Hope this helps.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #667
  • Jun 18, 2008 2:29pm Jun 18, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting Iron-man
That USDCHF sell trade posted earlier is up about 100 pips right now.

The Aussie was a short term stall but it did pay off 30 pips which I was glad to take. I am watching price as it nears the .9470 area. It may be good for another sell there but I am just watching it at this point.

I have closed out my USDCAD from boredom more than anything which means it will probably move now. LOL

Euro yen hit a daily high in the area of 167.91-168.05 and bounced nicely. If it gets back up there today I would gladly sell it again.

UsdJPY paid off once again as well. Hit the 108.35 and has moved down to the 107.74 line perfectly.

So all in all it is shaping up to be a good week, better than I expected as there is alot of ranging in the currencies. Which means a breakout is sure to come.
Yeah the USDCHF sell was spot on, I haven't recognised the 1.0460 as S/R level at first when you mentioned it because I looked only on the 4H and 1H Time Frames but now I went a couple of TFs down to 30M and 15M and that's where it can clearly be seen. That's how it's done. Thanks for your input Iron-man and I'm glad for your gain, 100 pips in one go is certainly nothing to be scoffed at
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #668
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:44pm Jun 18, 2008 5:44pm
Quoting lesterthecat
Again, thanks for the help. Due to not being able to monitor the screen I usually set limit orders at the entry point (give or take a few pips for spread etc) and see if price reaches before a bounce. Are you saying in the above you do the same but then use the lower TF to pick the exit or do you use low TF PA for entry as well.

I don't use the 5M for entry.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #669
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:12pm Jun 18, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting SeaPip
Hi, I have reading thru this thread completely. I have to say S/R and PA are the way to go. Great work for starting this thread BRV and sharing your thought and insight. Maybe I missed it somewhere, but can you/anyone share exactly what criteria do you use to draw your horizontal S/R line? I mean does it have to hit that point a certain numbers of time to be consider a major R/S? Also, on how do we know if it will reverse or bounce off of that point, do we look at the 4HR, 1HR or the daily to confirm if it will bounce or not? What is your way or BRV strategy to confirm that it will bounce off that? Hope I am making sense. Thanks again.
If you went to the movies and spent $18.94 would you later say, "I spent $18.94 at the movies or would you say, "I spent 20 bucks at the movies"

If you went to a new car dealer and picked out the perfect car for your needs and they told you it cost $30,000.00 dollars would you immediately recall what you paid for your last car or depending on your age maybe your first car?

These are two examples of our human psychology at work. It is the way society has hard-wired us.

So if price bounced there before it will probably do it again because those candles and price bars are people with real emotions,fear, greed, goals and memories.

Now as sure as we live and breathe, there are times it will fail. The Aussie did it yesterday. It bounced off of .9438 area dropped 20-40 pips and came back up. This time it went right through the area like it never existed. There are some clues that made me think that might happen. 1) it took a few hours to drop and the PA stalled 30 pips lower. But that's not written in stone thay was more of a feel I had based on time spent watching the currency. There is no substitute for experience. So be sure to get in as much "screen time" as you can.

What makes a line dependable. I like a line that has been hit from above and below and held both ways. Double tops and bottoms are good to on the larger time frames. There was a double top on the Aussie on the weekly chart that paid off huge a couple weeks back. There was a top in GJ around 208.50 that paid off 4 times. two lines have good value. Lines that were hit in the past (few weeks to a few months) and lines that were hit recently(last few days)
Also, one thing to remember is that if you play a line and it fails your stop is very tight.(or should be) So losses are always small.

Hope this helps. I know I crammed alot in this post. Please ask if anything seems unclear. I think BRV will be back soon as well.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #670
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:42pm Jun 18, 2008 7:42pm
The market is feeling awfully USD bearish right now, but that 1.015 area looks really tempting for USD/CAD. Does that just look like it will be a small correction?
  • #671
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:39pm Jun 18, 2008 9:39pm
hi looking at the usd/cad on the 4hr tf,1.0155 looks a good support,dont you think there would be a bounce off there
  • #672
  • Jun 18, 2008 10:44pm Jun 18, 2008 10:44pm
$/Cad looks like a bounce at the moment. looks bullish if this hour candle closes up. Didn't want to make it down to 1.0150
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #673
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:30am Jun 19, 2008 12:30am
Quoting Iron-man
Also, one thing to remember is that if you play a line and it fails your stop is very tight.(or should be) So losses are always small.
Thanks Iron Man, last question - I promise! My trading to date has been mainly of a swing nature looking for entries on retracements. This has usually involved a SL of anywhere between 50 and 100 pips. Would I be correct when trading even daily S&R levels in this way you are really looking for an immediate rejection of that price level so the SL would be say 20 pips or so.
  • #674
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:21am Jun 19, 2008 5:21am
I see a buy on EURCAD coming up.
  • #675
  • Jun 19, 2008 6:47am Jun 19, 2008 6:47am
1.5462 area held on euro for a bounce, but if it gets back down there and breaks, it could make a nice short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro h4 19 june.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #676
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:41am Jun 19, 2008 7:41am
Quoting lesterthecat
Thanks Iron Man, last question - I promise! My trading to date has been mainly of a swing nature looking for entries on retracements. This has usually involved a SL of anywhere between 50 and 100 pips. Would I be correct when trading even daily S&R levels in this way you are really looking for an immediate rejection of that price level so the SL would be say 20 pips or so.
Yes, I start most trades with that mindset and then let price action confirm or convince me otherwise
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #677
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:46am Jun 19, 2008 7:46am
Swiss continues to be the trade of the week. With a sell from the 1.0460-70 area Followed by a buy from the 1.0310-20 area. And now another sell from the 1.0460-70 area. But there could be a push up to the next level around 1.0490-1.0510 so guard your profits.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #678
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:49am Jun 19, 2008 7:49am
Just as soon as I was bored with this sell trade and closed it out it continued the downward move. Originally I said look to see it go to the 1.0088 area. It may still. I'm really not excited about this pair right now.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #679
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:53am Jun 19, 2008 7:53am
With the USDCHF poised for another move down I look for the EURUSD to move up from the 1.5460 area. Downside risk could be as low as 1.5400
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #680
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:57am Jun 19, 2008 7:57am
If the Aussie could get up to .9530 I would take another swing at a sell. This pair just never seems to give me the big moves. BRV always seems to nail those. LOL
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
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