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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #93,281
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:20am Jun 13, 2008 4:20am
Quoting ovaforty
easy. Bearish engulfing candle yesterday.
forget i even asked...
  • #93,282
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:21am Jun 13, 2008 4:21am
Quoting gene22
As a rule of thumb, if the price had been rejected by a certain level twice and the overall trend is against that price level, the price will break through that level on a third try. don't try to catch a falling knife, a better trade would be to wait for a possible small rejection (possible) and enter a scout first with the direction of the trend, upon confirmation of the breakout add to the position.
yeah, gene22 is correct. I have micro lot buy order as a tester to catch a bounce if it occurs. moms are showing a retrace is due.
  • #93,283
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:21am Jun 13, 2008 4:21am
Quoting gene22
As a rule of thumb, if the price had been rejected by a certain level twice and the overall trend is against that price level, the price will break through that level on a third try. don't try to catch a falling knife, a better trade would be to wait for a possible small rejection (possible) and enter a scout first with the direction of the trend, upon confirmation of the breakout add to the position.

since he said it was easy, i didn't bother to go on...
  • #93,284
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:23am Jun 13, 2008 4:23am
i have been posting all week the cable was very bearish.
  • #93,285
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:26am Jun 13, 2008 4:26am
Quoting ovaforty
i have been posting all week the cable was very bearish.

i understand. but u have no idea how many newbies out there are watching this thread and taking the exact same calls everyone here posts blindly. you do see how i feel about a trade when i make one, i mention week and i mention strong signals. so it would be better if you would add how "sure" or "unsure" u are about a trade.

don't mean anything wrong by that, and plz don't be offended, just a heads up.

cheers.
  • #93,286
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:28am Jun 13, 2008 4:28am
Quoting lilmoe
Euro: 35 pips to graceland
15 pips to graceland.

better watch out folks, just like gene said, DO NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLEN KNIFE.
  • #93,287
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:29am Jun 13, 2008 4:29am
Quoting lilmoe
i understand. but u have no idea how many newbies out there are watching this thread and taking the exact same calls everyone here posts blindly. you do see how i feel about a trade when i make one, i mention week and i mention strong signals. so it would be better if you would add how "sure" or "unsure" u are about a trade.

don't mean anything wrong by that, and plz don't be offended, just a heads up.

cheers.
no offense taken. Look at the weekly cable. I am posting for the newbies on this thread to teach them.
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  • #93,288
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:32am Jun 13, 2008 4:32am
new 12hr and 6hr candle and momentoms
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  • #93,289
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:33am Jun 13, 2008 4:33am
There are different styles of trading. Most of the posts i see here are trading indicators, which will lose in the long run. I trade the weekly charts and price action from candlestick formations, swing highs/and swing lows.
  • #93,290
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:37am Jun 13, 2008 4:37am
Quoting lilmoe
i understand. but u have no idea how many newbies out there are watching this thread and taking the exact same calls everyone here posts blindly. you do see how i feel about a trade when i make one, i mention week and i mention strong signals. so it would be better if you would add how "sure" or "unsure" u are about a trade.

don't mean anything wrong by that, and plz don't be offended, just a heads up.

cheers.
i know exactly how many newbies are reading this thread. And I know good and bad info when i read it too. The long term time frames tell us where a pair has been, where is now, and where it wants to go.
  • #93,291
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:45am Jun 13, 2008 4:45am
Quoting ovaforty
i know exactly how many newbies are reading this thread. And I know good and bad info when i read it too. The long term time frames tell us where a pair has been, where is now, and where it wants to go.
i would like to add a correction, as do i believe

"where it might go"
  • #93,292
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:46am Jun 13, 2008 4:46am
euros are all oversold

and yens are all overbought.
  • #93,293
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:48am Jun 13, 2008 4:48am
Quoting ovaforty
i know exactly how many newbies are reading this thread. And I know good and bad info when i read it too. The long term time frames tell us where a pair has been, where is now, and where it wants to go.

i don't only use indicators. you have seen a post i had yesterday about the euro long i entered, and how i thought it would be a very bad trade based on fibos and PA, and how i reversed the trade.

ps: i think the rest of the seniors here do the same.
  • #93,294
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:49am Jun 13, 2008 4:49am
Just an observation of the current market dynamics: Dollar is being pushed up by a strong inflation rhetoric, it still has anywhere between 100 to 150 pips up to go before encountering a strong resistance. (there is a channel line just 20 ticks above current price but i suspect it will be broken) Market does not mant to be short dollars as the stance of the central banks had shifted to combat inflation. On the other hand The Fed would be hard pressed to raise the rates anytime soon with the US markets strugling on the brink(as some may think) or a slowly developing recession that would most likely turn into a stagflation. Since it is quite obvious that the British economy is deteriorating as well we can make a conclusion that any prospects for the pound recovery in the near future are grim. Since it is also clear that the strong euro is beginning hurt the EC economy and a clear message from the central banks that lower euro would be desirable, we can make a conclusion that the carry paires could really rally only on the rising usd/yen pair. However, since we are in a very uncertain times it would be prudent to assume that risk aversion will materialize in the markets rather sooner than later (VIX is ticking up, world financial markets are selling off). So here is my conclusion at the moment, since markets do not want to be left short dollars, and risk to instability in the financial markets is growing every day, it would be safe to assume that yen will be bought in a hurry once risk aversion returns in full swing, contrary to what was happening last time risk materialised, when the market was selling dollars, now it will be bying dollars and buying the yen and SF since it is customary for the markets to flow to yen and swiss if the turbulence in the markets increase. So here is my case, the risk to the downside in the carry is increaing every day, once the risk aversion kicks in it could be an extremely fast move down. I would suspect that it should be faster than anything we had witnessed in the recent past. Let's see how this plays out...
  • #93,295
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:49am Jun 13, 2008 4:49am
and today is friday. We will soon see if Frankfurt and London will continue holding their positions, or close them out for the weekend.
  • #93,296
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:53am Jun 13, 2008 4:53am
Quoting lilmoe
if 1.9487 was taken out (this morning's high; big ben system), and i get price to close above m30 gann and 50 ema, i'll MIGHT long on cable. depends on PA
neither pre-london high nor low were taken out. strange, it's been 4 hours since london. if this keeps up, i'm exiting my cable trades.
  • #93,297
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:53am Jun 13, 2008 4:53am
Quoting gene22
Just an observation of the current market dynamics: Dollar is being pushed up by a strong inflation rhetoric, it still has anywhere between 100 to 150 pips up to go before encountering a strong resistance. (there is a channel line just 20 ticks above current price but i suspect it will be broken) Market does not mant to be short dollars as the stance of the central banks had shifted to combat inflation. On the other hand The Fed would be hard pressed to raise the rates anytime soon with the US markets strugling on the brink(as some may think) or a slowly developing recession that would most likely turn into a stagflation. Since it is quite obvious that the British economy is deteriorating as well we can make a conclusion that any prospects for the pound recovery in the near future are grim. Since it is also clear that the strong euro is beginning hurt the EC economy and a clear message from the central banks that lower euro would be desirable, we can make a conclusion that the carry paires could really rally only on the rising usd/yen pair. However, since we are in a very uncertain times it would be prudent to assume that risk aversion will materialize in the markets rather sooner than later (VIX is ticking up, world financial markets are selling off). So here is my conclusion at the moment, since markets do not want to be left short dollars, and risk to instability in the financial markets is growing every day, it would be safe to assume that yen will be bought in a hurry once risk aversion returns in full swing, contrary to what was happening last time risk materialised, when the market was selling dollars, now it will be bying dollars and buying the yen and SF since it is customary for the markets to flow to yen and swiss if the turbulence in the markets increase. So here is my case, the risk to the downside in the carry is increaing every day, once the risk aversion kicks in it could be an extremely fast move down. I would suspect that it should be faster than anything we had witnessed in the recent past. Let's see how this plays out...
I agree. That is why my sell order for geppy is sitting just below 209. I will catch a falling knife on the correct side of any bail out. Not wasting my time and paying negative swap trying to short geppy yet.
  • #93,298
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:58am Jun 13, 2008 4:58am
Quoting lilmoe
neither pre-london high nor low were taken out. strange, it's been 4 hours since london. if this keeps up, i'm exiting my cable trades.
that is the difference between your trading style and mine. You have posted sometimes long and sometimes short all week. I have posted one consistent theme all week. Your trading style is short term which is ok for you, mine is a longer term lower risk approach. It's all good bro. Peace.
  • #93,299
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:59am Jun 13, 2008 4:59am
...let's get ready to party
  • #93,300
  • Jun 13, 2008 5:01am Jun 13, 2008 5:01am
Quoting gene22
Just an observation of the current market dynamics: Dollar is being pushed up by a strong inflation rhetoric, it still has anywhere between 100 to 150 pips up to go before encountering a strong resistance. (there is a channel line just 20 ticks above current price but i suspect it will be broken) Market does not mant to be short dollars as the stance of the central banks had shifted to combat inflation. On the other hand The Fed would be hard pressed to raise the rates anytime soon with the US markets strugling on the brink(as some may think) or a slowly developing recession that would most likely turn into a stagflation. Since it is quite obvious that the British economy is deteriorating as well we can make a conclusion that any prospects for the pound recovery in the near future are grim. Since it is also clear that the strong euro is beginning hurt the EC economy and a clear message from the central banks that lower euro would be desirable, we can make a conclusion that the carry paires could really rally only on the rising usd/yen pair. However, since we are in a very uncertain times it would be prudent to assume that risk aversion will materialize in the markets rather sooner than later (VIX is ticking up, world financial markets are selling off). So here is my conclusion at the moment, since markets do not want to be left short dollars, and risk to instability in the financial markets is growing every day, it would be safe to assume that yen will be bought in a hurry once risk aversion returns in full swing, contrary to what was happening last time risk materialised, when the market was selling dollars, now it will be bying dollars and buying the yen and SF since it is customary for the markets to flow to yen and swiss if the turbulence in the markets increase. So here is my case, the risk to the downside in the carry is increaing every day, once the risk aversion kicks in it could be an extremely fast move down. I would suspect that it should be faster than anything we had witnessed in the recent past. Let's see how this plays out...
if you take the timespan you had in mind to where and when the price should reach the lows of the major drop, then i would agree 100%. price tends to respect the cycle's timespan NOT necessarily in each part, but as a whole. if the drop should happen, then it would be as horrifying (lol) as that of october of 1998.

i guess i dream too damn much.
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